Going into the 2022 NFL season, a lot of fanbases are hopeful their team can come out on top. This includes the top dogs with teams such as the Bills, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and defending Rams. With all the optimism, often times it deflects away from the pessimism, and fans don’t want to see flaws in their teams. Looking around the internet, everyone loves to be optimistic talking about why a team can win the Super Bowl. For example, seen here with an article on why the Bills can win the Super Bowl. Pointing out shortcomings is apart of sports, after all, only one team wins the championship each season. Split into six divisional parts (AFC East in this edition), I will shortly debrief each team in that division.
*Check out my AFC North: Why Your Team Won’t Win Super Bowl LVI article
Here are the flaws I see in the four AFC East teams:
AFC East:
Buffalo Bills:
Favorites to win Super Bowl LVI, the Buffalo Bills will look to win their first super bowl in franchise history this season. A lot of the hype revolves around quarterback Josh Allen and deservedly so. Allen is a transcendent quarterback with his 6’5 frame and ability to pass and run, a hard guy to stop.
Enough offense?
The Bills averaged 29.8 points per game last season, ranking third in the NFL. Josh Allen accounted for 42 touchdowns (36 passing, 6 rushing), followed by Stefon Diggs ten touchdowns, Dawson Knox’s eight, Devin Singletary’s eight (7 rushing, 1 receiving), and Gabriel Davis’s six. Thankfully, the four highest touchdown scorers are all back for Buffalo this season. What if they don’t churn out career years again? It’s the easy question to ask, but guy like Singletary and Knox had career years last season with increased production. As good as Allen is, it doesn’t look like a Super Bowl ready offense. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs alone will win games, it’ll be up to the secondary players to step up. Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary, and rookie James Cook.
Offensive line isn’t something to rave about either for the Bills, as PFF has them ranked 20th. A lot of people will look at the Bills offense last season and think it is easily repeatable, that’s not the case. They needed huge production from players last season and those players aren’t exactly superstars with known consistency.
Bottom Line:
When it comes down to it, I don’t think the Bills have enough offensive weapons outside of Allen and Diggs. Relying on guys like Knox, Singletary, and Davis, doesn’t feel like a great long term solution. The defense should be solid, especially against the pass where they ranked first last season. The Bills very well could win the Super Bowl and are the favorites, I’m just not buying into the hype.
2022-2023 Odds: (Via Fanduel Sportsbook)
SB: +650
AFC: +350
AFC East: -220
Win Total: O 11.5 (-135)/ U 11.5 (+115)
Miami Dolphins:
Poor offensive line play/Tua
Going straight to PFF for this one. The Dolphins offensive line ranks 23rd going into the 2022-2023 NFL season. For a quarterback like Tua Tagovailoa who has struggled with pressure and timing early on in his career, this could be a nightmare. A lot of early defensive line pressure, not much time to throw. Jaylen Waddle and the addition of Tyreek Hill, will give Tua one of the best receiving duos in the NFL. Conversely, the running back room of Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Sony Michel, is nothing to be super excited about.
Defense:
A secondary comprised of Xavier Howard, Brandon Jones, and Byron Jones, was good enough to rank fifth in PFF’s secondary rankings. The front seven should be just around average according to sharp football. Roger Martinez of Gridiron Heroics also points out how the Dolphins defense is ready to take the next step.
Bottom Line:
The offensive line situation would leave me concerned if I was a Dolphins fan. Of course, players can exceed expectations, but those guys up front are usually the x-factors between winning and losing. As much as I like the duo of Waddle and Hill, and the secondary, I don’t trust the quarterback throwing the ball yet. Factor in it will also be head coach’s Mike McDaniels first year with the Dolphins. A solid playoff team that could win a playoff game in the right matchup.
New England Patriots:
The Patriots finished 7-9 in the 2020-2021 season. Here’s how messed up this franchise is: It was their first time winning less than ten games since 2002 when they finished 9-7. Was the run over? Who’s replacing Brady? Is it time for Bill to step away? Were all questions going into the 2021-2022 season. After that 7-9 season, the Patriots went right back to the only thing they know how to do, winning football games. Finishing with a 10-7 record and a wildcard loss to the division rival Buffalo Bills, many can say this Patriots team overachieved by just making the playoffs.
Mac Jones progression:
The Patriots will go as Mac Jones takes them.
Here’s how Mac ranked against the other starting rookie quarterbacks last season:
Touchdown passes (1st), Completion % (1st), Yards per game (1st), Yards (1st), Completions (2nd), Attempts (2nd)
Throwing for 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions his rookie year, Mac Jones had a really solid season. His improvements will prove key to the heights this team and offense can go. With a receiving core of DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, and Hunter Henry, it could be worse. Bourne and Meyers each finished with 800+ receiving yards last season. Henry proved reliable to Jones with 50 catches for nine touchdowns. Mac has been working on his body this offseason, it’s a necessary step he needed to take. His ability to improve as a scrambler and throwing on the run will unlock the playbook and buy himself time when looking for receivers. Running back Damien Harris also returns who tied for second in rushing touchdowns with 15 last season. It’s a solid offense without a superstar that grabs your attention.
Bottom Line:
The defense should be solid, might be average to below average, might completely exceed expectations. With coach Belichick, it’s hard to predict how well his defenses will perform because he always seems to get the most out of them. With the focus on offense, Mac Jones improvements as an overall football player will be the ceiling for this team. The receiving weapons aren’t great but are serviceable. It’s the Patriots, pencil in ten wins and we’ll see from there.
2022-2023 Odds:
SB: +4000
AFC: +2200
AFC East: +500
Win Total: O 8.5 (-115)/ U 8.5 (-105)
New York Jets:
A trendy over win total team, the Jets should be improved this season. The second year for head coach Robert Saleh, offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, and quarterback Zach Wilson.
Offensive Weapons:
The Jets have put together a nice core for quarterback Zach Wilson. Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis, Braxton Berrios, Elijah Moore, Denzel Mims, and C.J. Uzomah, gives Wilson options. 36th overall pick Breece Hall should improve the Jets run game, with the ability to catch when needed. It’s an offense that could surprisingly score a lot of points, something the Jets have struggled with in years past. Zach Wilsons development like Mac Jones will be the ceiling for this team. Not a shocking revelation, the highly drafted first round quarterback will be the moving factor. Zach Wilson has the talent to be an All-Pro quarterback. The question we now wait to see answered: Will this be another Sam Darnold situation, or did the Jets finally find their guy?
*Zach Wilsons receiving core is the reason I like his over for touchdown passes this season, read about that HERE.
Bottom Line:
Overall, this is a Jets team that could be pretty interesting. On the offensive side, LaFleur will have a plethora of creative schemes for Zach Wilson to find open receivers. 10th overall pick Garrett Wilson should prove worthy of no.1 receiver status on this Jets team and become the guy for quarterback Zach Wilson. The defensive side of the football features Quinnen Williams (RDT), C.J. Mosley (MLB), and fourth overall pick Ahmad Gardner (LCB). I expect this team to be competitive this season, keep building.
2022-2023 Odds:
SB: +15000
AFC: +8500
AFC East: +2400
Win Total: O 5.5 (-160), U 5.5 (+135)
Thanks for reading!
Check out my other articles—> Here
AFC North: Why Your Team Won’t Win Super Bowl LVI
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