When it comes to season long player props for the NFL season, quarterbacks are usually the first to pass the eye. The most polarizing position in all of sports, the quarterbacks are the ones that start the play with the ball. When the ball is in the air, it is up to their counterparts to complete the play. Quarterback touchdown overs have to be factored by not only the player throwing the ball, but who he’s throwing too. It takes two to tango in this game, and the quarterbacks on this list will need some help from their friends this season.
Here are three quarterback touchdown overs to bet on going into the 2022-2023 NFL season:
*All odds available via Fanduel Sportsbook
Kirk Cousins Over 30.5 Touchdown Passes (-112):
Last season, Cousins threw for 33 touchdowns. He was able to hit that number despite only being 11th in attempts. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen tied for the team lead with ten touchdowns apiece. Thielen also missed four games last season and his return to full health will prove huge for Cousins and this offense. Now, when looking at a quarterback like Kirk Cousins, it’s easy to point out flaws and all the reasons someone should stay away from him. He’s not the most dynamic quarterback, and doesn’t create those highlight plays with his feet that his young quarterback counterparts tend to do week to week. New Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell, who guided Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford to 41 touchdown passes last season, will look for Cousins to produce similar numbers.
Returning Wide Receivers:
Minnesotas top three receivers from last season return in Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and K.J. Osborn. The three of them combined for 27 of Cousins 33 touchdown passes last season. I see the returns as an obvious positive because of the familiarity. Chemistry is important for a quarterback like Cousins who doesn’t have the freakish skillset of a Mahomes or Herbert, quarterbacks who could throw touchdown passes to someone off the street. Jefferson, arguably the best receiver in the NFL, has had seven and ten touchdown catches in his first two seasons. Projecting with what should be an improved offensive system, Jefferson could find himself in the 12-14 touchdown range this season.
*I wrote about my high expectations this season for Adam Thielen here, in my NFL receiving overs article*
Efficiency & Potential Uptick In Pass Attempts:
Kevin O’Connells quarterback attempts per game in his three seasons an offensive coordinator:
2019 (Washington)- 29.9 attempts per game (28th)
2020 (Rams)- 35.7 attempts per game (15th)
2021 (Rams)- 35.7 attempts per game (10th)
That 2019 Washington season featured the triple threat quarterback trio of Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, and Colt McCoy. Can’t blame him for not scheduling more pass plays that season.
Vikings pass attempts per game 2019-2021:
2019: 29.2 attempts per game (30th)
2020: 32.3 attempts per game (27th)
2021: 35.5 attempts per game (11th)
Despite the Vikings being a bottom five passing team in 2020, Cousins threw for a career high 35 touchdown passes. He also was 15th among starting quarterbacks that seasons for pass attempts. If O’Connell can increase Cousins production throwing the football, more touchdown passes will come. Having his over/under set for 30.5 is a weak number considering what Cousins has been able to do the last two seasons in a scheme that didn’t always cater to his capabilities.
Kirk Cousins has enjoyed three straight seasons of 100+ passer rating, and owns the seventh highest passer rating all-time. An efficient quarterback, Cousins in his typically non-flashy ways, gets the job done. Expect to see an uptick in pass attempts this season in what should be a pass friendly offense.
Minnesota also ranked 25th in time of possession last season at 29:07. O’Connell should be able to center a more efficient offense to keep his team on the field and create more opportunities.
Secondary schedule:
The Vikings will also get some nice matchups against some projected lower tier secondaries by PFF.
Exploitable Matchups:
Bears (31st) {2x}
Cardinals (27th)
Patriots (26th)
Lions (25th) {2x}
Commanders (24th)
Colts (23rd)
Giants (20th)
Jets (17th)
Bottom Line:
Kirk Cousins should be able to go over 30.5 touchdown passes and this number is too low. With his returning receivers and an offensive minded head coach, Cousins could be in line for a career high in touchdown passes. He will face some tough secondaries this season in the Packers, Dolphins, and Saints, but touchdowns can still be thrown those weeks. The big weeks are needed against the poorer secondaries, and I expect a lot of big weeks from Kirk Cousins this upcoming season. Cousins is a better quarterback than given credit, and has hit this over in the last two seasons.
Zach Wilson Over 20.5 Touchdown Passes (-118)
I’m buying into the Zach Wilson hype this season. Throwing for a disappointing nine touchdowns in 13 games his rookie year, at times, he looked lost out there. It was not only Wilsons first year with the Jets, but also offensive coordinator Mike LaFleurs. There were points last season where both of them seemed unsure what to do, but adjustments can be made. With offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, and a plethora of options, Zach Wilson is a great candidate to go over his touchdown passing prop.
*Rather than go through matchups, pass attempts, etc. I just wanted to focus on receiving core because that’s what makes this such a good bet. Wilson will pass the ball a ton, this could be a fun fresh offense, and they have the pieces for it to work.
Receiving Core:
Not a shocker to start with the receiving core when looking at a prop like this.
Returning:
- Elijah Moore
- Corey Davis
- Braxton Berrios
- Denzel Mims
- Michael Carter
The Jets have put together a respectable group of receivers for Wilson to throw to. Moore led the Jets in touchdowns last season with five (one from Wilson), while Corey Davis hauled in four (three from Wilson-the most last season), and Berrios finished with two (one from Wilson). 2020 59th overall pick Denzel Mims hasn’t been able to find his footing in the Jets organization yet. Mims has impressed at training camps, and could factor himself into a Jets suddenly deep receiving core this season. After 20 professional games, he is still looking to score his first career touchdown. Michael Carter caught 36 passes from the running back position last season, and once again should be included in the passing game.
It was not a fun offensive season for a Jets team that scored 18.2 points per game, ranking 28th in the NFL.
New Additions:
- Garrett Wilson (10th overall pick in 2022 draft)
- C.J. Uzomah
- Breece Hall (36th overall pick in 2022 draft)
The additions of Wilson, Uzomah, and Hall, gives Wilson even more options. The big name to talk about is 10th overall pick Garrett Wilson, who scored 12 touchdowns in 11 games for Ohio State last season. Wilson-Wilson should have immediate impact with each other, and this is the wide receiver Zach Wilson desperately needed last season. With Zach Wilsons ability to get sporadic throwing the football, Garrett Wilson is the type of wide receiver that will go get it, and his physical strengths will be on display this season. Wilson should be the number one option for Zach Wilson and the two could connect for some exciting long touchdowns this season. C.J. Uzomah coming over from the Bengals, will give Wilson a solid tight end to find. Uzomah coming off a career high 49 receptions and five touchdowns last season, will be a reliable option. He also could find himself as a favorite redzone target for Zach Wilson. Running back Breece Hall caught 36 passes for three touchdowns in Iowa States offense last season, I expect the Jets to take advantage of Halls catching abilities.
Bottom Line:
The Jets have put all the right pieces together for Wilson to succeed. The defense will have their struggles as well, and the Jets could find themselves chasing points, even better. With a full season to play with (barring injury), Zach Wilson should be able to throw at least 21 touchdown passes.
Daniel Jones Over 22.5 Touchdown Passes (-102)
After not signing a long term contract going into his fourth year with the New York Giants, it’s put up or ship out time for Daniel Jones. Jones did hit 24 touchdowns in 13 games his rookie year, which included a pair of four touchdown pass games and a five touchdown pass game. Since his rookie year, the last two seasons haven’t been what was expected. After 11 touchdown passes to 10 interceptions in 2020, followed by 10 touchdown passes to 7 interceptions in 2021, Jones is on the hot seat. Daniel Jones will need help and health from his talented wide receivers to not only hit his over, but keep his job in New York.
Brian Daboll…can history repeat itself?
When Brian Daboll was named offensive coordinator of the Buffalo Bills January 2018, he had a young quarterback to fix. We’ve all seen the player Josh Allen has become. Daniel Jones is going into his fourth season, but Daboll can still selvage his time with Jones, and turn him into an impact player. Allen has enjoyed back to back monster seasons with Daboll and co. Daboll should be able to implement an offense system for Jones to succeed. It puts a lot of pressure on Brian Daboll to turn Daniel Jones into a ‘guy’. Risks will be taken this season, and there should be a lot of throws. An uptick in pass attempts should be coming, and will be closer to the 459 pass attempts he saw his rookie year en-route to 24 touchdown passes. With more passes comes more opportunities, especially when you have a trusted play-caller.
Receiving Core:
The Giants may just have one of the best receiving cores in the NFL. Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Wan’Dale Robinson, form what could be a dynamic receiving room. Saquon Barkley will also factor into the passing game from the backfield.
Toney especially showed flashes in the ten games he played in his rookie year last season, look for a breakout season. He is still looking to score his first NFL touchdown, I expect him to find the endzone this season.
For guys like Shepard and Slayton, a lot of it comes down to health. If they are healthy, they will produce. It’s a boom or bust situation with these Giants wide receivers.
Bottom Line:
The Giants offense has been bad in Daniel Jones three years:
2019: 21.3 PPG (T-18th)
2020: 17.5 PPG (31st)
2021: 15.5 PPG (31st)
It can’t get any worse than this. Brian Daboll has a talented receiver room and a capable quarterback. With a more fluent offense, Daniel Jones should be able to relive some of those four touchdown pass games from his rookie year. Similar to the aforementioned Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones has a surplus of option to pass to. I’m banking on not just Dabolls new and improved system, but Jones motivation with his professional career potentially hanging in the balance. If he can’t figure it out this season, he doesn’t deserve to be the starting quarterback.
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