As the 2024 NFL Draft looms closer, the Chicago Bears have one of the toughest decisions to make of the offseason; What will they do with the first overall pick? For many, the obvious choice is to snag USC quarterback Caleb Williams. For others, the decision is not that easy. Justin Fields is currently the Bears starting quarterback, whom they spent the 2021 11th overall pick on. Fields has been the subject of most trade talks this offseason, but some Bears fans and writers feel that the first pick could garner enough trade value that the Bears would have no choice but to flip it.
Caleb Williams is widely regarded as a generational prospect, one that could alter a franchises trajectory. The question is not so much whether or not he is worth a trade, but more so how much could he be worth. To figure that out, it is important to look back at the last few times the number one pick was traded away.
Panthers Gamble for Bryce Young
You don’t have to go very far back to find the last time the first pick was traded away for a haul. The Carolina Panthers traded up to draft Alabama quarterback Bryce Young in last year’s draft. The Bears once again held the first overall pick. While the Justin Fields questions were still circulating during the 2023 offseason, there was very little speculation that the Bears would do anything but trade the pick.
“If the phones go off and there are certain situations where that can help us, then we’ll go down that avenue.” Stated Poles in a press conference after the Bears had secured the 2023 first pick.
And that’s exactly what they did.
The Panthers gave up the number nine and 61 overall picks in the 2023 draft, their first round pick in 2024, which is now the first overall pick, and star wide receiver D.J. Moore, who had 1,364 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns in the 2023 season.
The Bryce Young experiment got off to a rocky start with Young throwing for 2,877 yards and 11 touchdowns to ten interceptions and the Panthers going 2-15, but a change at head coach with Dave Canales coming in and another year of star edge rusher Brian Burns after a franchise tag was placed on him are good steps towards improving.
With last year in mind, the question is: What can the Bears get for the right to draft Caleb Williams?
There is no doubt that a majority of quarterback-needy teams would be more than interested in trading for the first pick, but the price may not be as high as most would imagine.
This years draft class is loaded with top-end quarterback talent, with at least three in Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels all consistently being mocked in the top five selections. The Commanders, Patriots and Giants are all considered candidates to take quarterbacks and they have the second, third and sixth pick respectively.
With all these factors, it is likely the Bears would get only one first round pick for the first pick this year, unlike in 2023. They would still presumably receive at least 3 picks from the aforementioned teams.
Teams farther out of that group, such as the Vikings, Falcons and Steelers would most definitely have to offer more than one first rounder and would have to include at least six picks, matching the haul the Rams gave to draft Jared Goff in 2016.
Any other year, Caleb Williams would be worth more, but with a diluted quarterback market and a interest in veteran players, we could see an underwhelming trade compared to last year’s deal.