Through the first six weeks of the 2023 NFL season, the New Orleans Saints have been a lock with Under bets. They are the only team in the league that has a 6-0 record doing this type of bet.
Why is betting New Orleans with this so successful thus far? Let’s take a look at the most notable trends.
Elite Defense
Let’s start with the fact that the New Orleans Saints have one of the best defenses in the NFL. No matter what you try on them, they are likely to shut you down.
The Saints rank in the Top 10 for rushing yards allowed per game (96.3).
If you think passing the ball is a better alternative, think again. They rank in the Top 5 in passing yards allowed per game (182).
This leads to teams having a difficult time putting up points against them. New Orleans only allows 16 points per game. They have only given up more than 20 points in a game once this season.
With a team this automatic on the defensive side of the ball, it is no wonder why Under bets are having so much success. However, this is only one piece of the puzzle.
Underwhelming Offense
This past offseason, the New Orleans Saints signed veteran quarterback Derek Carr. Considering that the quarterback position was a revolving door the year prior, the offense was expected to take a step forward.
However, that just has not been the case thus far. In fact, you can argue that the offense has regressed.
Last year, the Saints averaged 19.4 points per game and 217.2 passing yards per game. This year, they are averaging just 18.2 points per game and 216.7 passing yards per game.
Carr has just five touchdown passes through the first six games of the season. Last year, he had 24 touchdown passes.
It does not help that he has faced a lot of pressure in the pocket. So far, he has been sacked 17 times this season.
On top of this, the Saints have been without running back Alvin Kamara for half of the season. He missed the first three games due to a suspension. The suspension was given because he was involved in a Las Vegas beating back in February that left a man with serious injuries.
New Orleans is in a bottom 10 team when it comes to running the football. They average just under 96 rushing yards per game. Kamara has just 199 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown since his return.
The Saints have only scored more than 20 points in a game once this season. When you combine this with their stifling defense, you can start to understand why their games have had a lot of low point totals.
Will the Under Bets Keep Coming?
Will the Saints continue to cover Under bets? Their odds of doing so in Week 7 just got a little better.
That is because it is being reported that quarterback Trevor Lawrence could miss Thursday’s game against the Saints due to a left knee injury. At the time of writing, he is day-to-day. The Jaguars average 223.8 passing yards per game and 23.7 points per game.
If Lawrence can’t go, the Jacksonville Jaguars will turn to backup quarterback C.J. Beathard. Right now, over/under lines are sitting at around 43.
The Saints also go on the road to take on the Indianapolis Colts in Week 8. The Colts are also facing a quarterback injury, with Anthony Richardson potentially facing a lengthy absence. Indianapolis averages 23.3 points per game and 228.7 passing yards per game.
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