This is another edition of Lucas’ Locks, this time looking at my favorite win total bets from the SEC. I only pick the ones that I feel confident in enough to place my own money on, and I get all my win total numbers from BetMGM. Now, let’s go get these locks!
Alabama Over/Under 11.5
This is essentially to me, betting on weather or not Bryce Young stays healthy for the full season. Nick Saban recently said “2021 was a rebuilding year,”and I kinda agree with him. With Bryce Young returning at QB, and improved OL, a defense that has two of the best pass rushers in the country in Will Anderson and Dallas Turner, I think this could be one of the better team’s Nick Saban has ever had.
The depth at QB is my biggest concern, but I think this Crimson Tide team has depth everywhere else. They get Texas A&M at home, Texas in the non-conference, and have to go to LSU. Those are the only three games that appear “losable” on the schedule, and even then, I’d give them a 65% chance at worst to win all three of those games. This is the best team in the country, so give me the over despite it being 11.5.
The Pick: Over 11.5 Wins for Alabama
Arkansas Over/Under 7.5
Real simple bet here, I just think this win total is off by a full win. I am high on the Razorbacks this year, and the schedule sets up nicely for them to get to 8-9 wins. They start off with Cincinnati, South Carolina, and Missouri State. I got them 3-0 in those games, and from there, they just have to go 5-4 the rest of the way to cash this over.
They do play Texas A&M on the road and get Alabama on the road, which I have as two losses. Then they have Mississippi State, BYU, Auburn, Liberty, LSU, Ole Miss, and Missouri. Are any of those teams definitely better than Arkansas? I don’t think so, in fact I have serious doubts about all seven of those final teams they face down the stretch. To me, the most likely record for this team is 8-4, but I think 9-3 is far more likely than 7-5. So give me the over here easy.
The Pick: Over 7.5 Wins for Arkansas
Ole Miss Over/Under 7.5
With two overs, I gotta take an under somewhere. I’m not totally selling all my Ole Miss stock or anything, I’m just not high on them this year. Ole Miss for me just has too much talent to replace at the QB position. Matt Corral when healthy was one of the best QB’s in the country, and I think there’s a big drop off from him to whoever ends up winning the battle between USC transfer Jaxson Dart and Luke Altmyer. I do think Zach Evans could be a potential superstar if he can stay out of trouble, and the OL should be good for the Rebels. But with perennial questions about the Ole Miss defense, and my doubts about whoever wins the QB battle, I just don’t see them getting to 8 wins.
They get an easy set up in the non-conference, as they should start 4-0. From there though, I only see 1 guaranteed win the rest of the way which is at Vanderbilt. They have a bunch of games that I could see going either way, but I don’t think that’s a positive thing given there are real questions about the defense and the QB position. How you typically win those close games? By having a good QB and playing good defense. So I’ll take the under here, especially since you can get it at plus money.
The Pick: Under 7.5 for Ole Miss
Vanderbilt Over/Under 2.5 Wins
This is a tough one, just because I think the most likely scenario is 3-9. But I do see Vanderbilt hitting this over here. This is all about the non-conference for Vandy, as I don’t know that I see them getting a conference win this year. They get Hawaii and Elon at home in the non-conference, which should be two wins. Then the real pivotal game is Northern Illinois at home. I don’t think NIU is overly good on offense, and Vanderbilt should have the better roster here. I think they can win that game and start 3-1 with the loss coming against Wake forest. We can still cash this ticket even if they don’t win a conference game after all, so I’ll take the over 2.5 here.
The Pick: Over 2.5 Wins for Vanderbilt
For More Great Football Content
Follow us on Twitter at @GridironHeroics for more great content. We appreciate you taking time to read our articles. To interact more with our community and keep up to date on the latest in Football news, JOIN OUR FREE FACEBOOK GROUP by CLICKING HERE
