Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will make their 6th straight AFC Championship appearance as they take on the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. These two opponents have not matched up since early in the 2021 season. where the Ravens were able to pull out the victory at M&T Bank Stadium with a score of 36-35.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens Spread Set at 3.5, Over/Under 46.5 Total Points
The spread for this year’s AFC Championship game is set at 3.5 points in favor of Baltimore. The Ravens are 6-3 at home this season with a 12-6 record against the spread. Kansas City has an 11-7-1 record against the spread and have had success on the road winning 6 of their 8 games.
The total points line is set at 46.5. The last time these two opponents matched up, there were over 70 points scored and both offenses put up at least 35 points. The Ravens are the second highest scoring team in the NFL averaging over 32 points per game at home. The Chiefs have not had as much success offensively this season compared to previous years. Only putting up 21.4 points per game on the road, but have stepped it up in the playoffs averaging 26.5 points.
There is expected to be a 65 percent chance of rain showers and 12mph winds, but there is value in the total points line going over 46.5 in this year’s AFC Championship game considering their recent success and both teams have dealt with rough weather conditions in the playoffs so far.
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chiefs franchise quarterback Patrick Mahomes is favored to go over his passing touchdowns line of 1.5 in Sunday’s AFC Championship versus the Ravens. While Mahomes has not thrown for more than 2 passing touchdowns in his last 11 games, his previous history with Baltimore shows a different side of the story.
In his only 4 career games versus the Ravens, Mahomes has thrown for 1,419 yards and 12 touchdowns with an average passer rating of 119.1. He’s dropped at least 343 yards and 2 touchdowns in every game and will need to put up points against a Baltimore offense that is the second highest scoring team in the NFL.
Rashee Rice Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-120 on Draft Kings Sportsbook)
Rashee Rice has been the main bright spot for this Chiefs wide receiver core this season and is one of the best rookies in his class after going 55th in this year’s draft. Rice only caught 4 balls for 47 yards in last week’s divisional round versus the Buffalo Bills, but Buffalo have shut down receivers this season only allowing 126 combined yards per game.
In the last 6 weeks, Baltimore have allowed multiple receivers to reach at least 65 receiving yards including Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Brandon Aiyuk and Nico Collins. Rice has dropped at least 127 receiving yards in the 2 games and hit this line in 3 straight games on the road prior to last week’s divisional round, which makes him favored to go over 59.5 receiving yards in Sunday’s game.
Justice Hill Over 49.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120 on Draft Kings Sportsbook)
Somebody who deserves more recognition this year is Justice Hill.
He’s stepped up big time this year especially after the Ravens lost two of their running backs. A baller. pic.twitter.com/yodY8iQRdm
— The Ravens Realm (@RealmRavens) January 21, 2024
The Ravens have dealt with multiple injuries in the backfield this season, losing J.K Dobbins Week 1 after tearing his achilles and rookie Keaton Mitchell due to a torn ACL. Despite the injuries, Justice Hill has stepped up as a dual threat option and put together some productive performances in the past few weeks.
Hill has hit his line of 49.5 scrimmage yards in 3 of the last 4 games. The only game he did not hit this line was in Week 18, where most of the starters were rested and Hill did not receive a carry. Hill to go over 49.5 combined rushing and receiving yards holds value in Sunday’s AFC Championship game.
Coverage for Sunday’s AFC Championship Will Begin at 3:00 PM Eastern Time
Mahomes and the Chiefs will travel to M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Ravens on Sunday at 3:00 PM Eastern time. Coverage will take place on CBS.
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