FCS Football Postseason: The Big Sky-MVFC Battle For Top 4 Seeds Rages

Each week, GridIrion Heroics FCS writer Brian McLaughlin gives his FCS football postseason outlook heading into the next week’s action. BMac breaks down his projection on the eight-team seeding, who is just outside the seeding, who will get the at-large bids, and who will nab an automatic bid after winning its conferences.

And last but not least? Which teams just missed this week’s 24-team postseason outlook but could be in it soon?

Before we go any further, let’s congratulate the first program in 2022 to clinch an FCS playoff berth — and it did it before November: Saint Francis (Pa.) under former NFL All-Pro offensive lineman Chris Villarrial, who took the Red Flash to their first playoff appearance back in 2016 with future NFL/CFL player Lorenzo Jerome leading the way. The Red Flash fell to Villanova by 10 points in the first round in 2016, but this time around — as Northeast Conference championships once again — they hope to advance past the first round.

Major props to the Red Flash and their awesome hometown of Loretto, Pa. This is why the FCS is so cool.

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By each Tuesday, this column will publish, and it will be updated each week through FCS Selection Sunday on Nov. 20.

The final FCS football postseason outlook will come within ONE HOUR after action wraps on Saturday, Nov. 19 (late Saturday/early Sunday — depending on game times and endings). The FCS playoffs and postseason will begin on Nov. 26.

The weekly FCS football postseason predictions will always be pinned at the top of my Twitter acct (@BrianMacWriter) by Tuesdays, and will always be shared with our friends — FCS Fans Nation — on their outstanding Facebook page.

This week’s postseason explanation is below. Enjoy!

WEEK NINE FCS REACTION: How did this weekend affect the playoff picture?

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FCS FOOTBALL POSTSEASON EXPLANATION

THE SEEDS

The top five seeds you see in my chart below will definitely jostle between now and FCS Selection Sunday on Nov. 20. There’s no way it stays this way. That’s the only thing you can count on. Sacramento State has to go to Weber State this weekend — that’s a biggie. SDSU and NDSU have reasonable roads ahead, but both have to go on the road to play teams who have proven to be tough before. And Montana State? They have to play the Montana Griz at home in the season finale  — one of the nastiest, if not the nastiest, rivalries in the FCS, if not all of Division I.

Much could change.

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When it comes to that No. 6 through No. 8 range, obviously that could go many different ways. If a team like Samford wins out in SoCon play — which requires a road win at a very strong Chattanooga and a home finale against a strong Mercer team — the Bulldogs deserve a seed. Period. ZERO excuses.

That requires somebody above to bump out to make room for a 10-1 Samford team — but the Bulldogs will be 10-0 against the FCS if the above happens and they’d deserve at least a No. 6 seed if not higher. Win out, and Samford should get that.

Incarnate Word and Holy Cross won’t lose again, so they’re all but locked in but truly don’t deserve to be above the No. 6 spot — even though both have beaten FBS teams (G5 level). Their schedules have mostly been lighter than most, though they’ve had their moments.

Then there’s William & Mary. CAA games against solid Villanova and Richmond are doable, but no guarantees. We’ve seen the CAA go to pieces with its elite teams canceling each other out in November for years.

If The Tribe survives that? Can you imagine a W&M team going 10-1, with an FBS win (Charlotte) and only a three-point loss to Elon early getting a seed when maybe a team like New Hampshire wins the CAA title (thanks to schedule rotation W&M and UNH don’t play)? And that’s exactly what should happen: If W&M is 10-1, it’s a seed. Period. ZERO excuses (and it may bump a very deserving program).

By the way, that lack of a regular season W&M-UNH game sets us up perfectly for a second-round playoff matchup, eh? W&M and UNH? Want to lock that in, please?

The Big Sky looks like it could have three seeds. There’s no way it will have four and in certain scenarios, it could drop to two. We shall see. But the battles are clearly No. 1 through No. 5 and No. 6 through No. 8.

AT-LARGE BERTHS

I’ve received a lot of feedback about why the SoCon and CAA seem to fill up these spots on my board. Well, it is temporary folks — it won’t last. Every year we see this, and every year it sorts itself out. If any conferences hammer each other and eliminate each other in November, it’s the SoCon and CAA.

But as of today? The SoCon and CAA clog these spots because these two conferences have some good ballclubs.

In fact, this year, there’s a good debate on which conference has the best top-four. It wasn’t debatable for years — it was CAA for much of the past decade. This year could be different. The SoCon could have three solid candidates in the playoffs, with a seed.

But the bottom line? This is how it looks today based on the results we have on hand. this is very likely not how it will look on the morning of Nov. 20.

WEEK NINE FCS REACTION: How did this weekend affect the playoff picture?

If the SoCon and CAA chop each other up, which they traditionally do after Halloween, they will open up spots for a second Southland team like SE Louisiana, who has two FBS losses and could realistically finish 8-1 in the FCS (with wins over UIW and transitional Jacksonville State). The Texas A&M-Commerce loss hurts SE La., but most of the teams in contention for an at-large have at least one blemish like that.

It would also leave an opening for a very strong Patriot League team like Fordham — potentially 9-2 this year — to nab the first at-large berth for the Patriot since Fordham did the same thing in 2015 with a guy named Chase Edmonds leading the way.

Questions? Debate? Hit BMac up on Twitter (@BrianMacWriter) and let’s discuss.

REMEMBER: The FCS selection committee will ignore all FBS losses and all lower-division wins in its playoff consideration. So on the chart below, you’ll see the overall team record and the FCS record. Most of these teams have played FBS opponents this year — and a few have won against FBS teams (which is indicated). BEATING an FBS team is a big poker chip come playoff time, and could be the ultimate tiebreaker when it’s not obvious any other way.

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THE HBCU AND IVY LEAGUE PREDICTIONS — AFTER WEEK 9

MEAC CHAMPION: North Carolina Central (6-2 overall – with poker chip wins over CAA leader UNH and Big South leader NC A&T) — Though South Carolina State and Howard have paths to the Celebration Bowl too, I’m sticking with N.C. Central here. And for those of you wondering — what happens if N.C. Central slips out of the MEAC title picture down the stretch but finishes 8-3 overall with big wins over UNH and N.C. A&T?

Will the FCS Playoff Committee consider N.C. Central a candidate for an at-large spot? Sorry, but no. The problem will be the two D2 wins and the 30-point loss to a Campbell team that won’t make the FCS playoffs. The MEAC won’t get an at-large berth from its runner-up this year.

SWAC TITLE GAME (Dec. 3, site TBD): Jackson State (East) vs. Prairie View A&M (West)

IVY LEAGUE CHAMPION: Princeton (7-0 with three games left)

CELEBRATION BOWL (Dec. 17, Atlanta): Jackson State (SWAC) vs. North Carolina Central (MEAC)

FCS FOOTBALL POSTSEASON PREDICTION – AFTER 7 WEEKS

THE VOTE:  (note that FCS REC (record vs. FCS) is what the playoff committee will look at — unless the FCS school has an FBS win or a lower-division loss).

A (+) indicates the team has beaten a Group of Five Conference FBS team (EX: Weber State’s big win over Utah State), and a (&) indicates the team has beaten a Power Five Conference FBS team (EX: Southern Illinois’ win over the Big Ten’s Northwestern). FBS wins are key “poker chips” come postseason selection time.

Certain programs are ineligible for the FCS football postseason yet are playing in one of the playoff-bound conferences  (EXAMPLES: Pioneer League and NEC leaders St. Thomas (MN) and Merrimack respectively, as well as FBS transitional teams like Sam Houston and Jacksonville State). Also, the ASUN-WAC combination will award one automatic bid on behalf of two conferences that are still in the forming stages.

NOTE: Brian McLaughlin has been a voter on the STATS/PERFORM FCS football poll since 2016, and has written FCS postseason predictions since the same year. He also votes on the FCS postseason awards — the Walter Payton Award (top offensive player), the Buck Buchanan Award (top defensive player), the Jerry Rice Award (the top freshman in FCS football), and the Eddie Robinson Award (top coach that year).