One of my favorite things to do before the NFL season starts is go through all the player props. With gambling especially in football becoming more popular, you can basically find a prop for anything these days. Focusing here on the receivers, I find that as the most interesting category between receivers, quarterbacks, and running backs. Quarterbacks have the ball in their hands and create the plays, running backs get handed or tossed the ball and make it happen, while receivers have to rely on the quarterbacks to hit their quotas. Here are three receiving yards over, and two touchdown over props I came away with.
*All odds on Fanduel Sportsbook
1. Adam Thielen Over 750.5 Receiving Yards (-112):
It’s no secret that since Justin Jefferson arrived in Minnesota in 2020, Thielen has played second fiddle. Jefferson in his own right is considered by some as the best receiver in the NFL and his O/U sits at 1350.5 entering the season. Thielen had 925 receiving yards in 2020, and followed it up by having 726 last season. Before an ankle injury in week 13, Thielen was on pace for an 1,000 yard season which would been his first since 2018. After missing four games in 2021, Thielen has said he feels ready to go entering year ten. If he plays one more game in the 2021 season, he eclipses the 750.5 mark, health is key.
New head coach Kevin O’Connell will also help bring a new scheme to a talented offense that needed a change. O’Connell the offensive coordinator for the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, had Matthew Stafford throw the ball eighth most in the NFL. Stafford was only four away from sixth place finisher Ben Roethlisberger, O’Connell trusted his quarterback slinging it. Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins finished tenth in attempts last season. I expect that number to go up with Cousins reuniting with his former quarterbacks coach. More passes=more opportunities.
A Minnesota offense that averaged the 13th most points per game, has room for improvements. Look for O’Connell to take advantage of Jefferson getting a lot of attention, and for Thielen to quietly put together a rejuvenated season.
Jarred Van Hauter of Gridiron Heroics also mentions the Minnesota Vikings receiving core getting disrespected in the FTT & PhiferFootball’s wide receiver rankings entering the 2022-2023 season.
Even more reason:
10 of the 17 games on the Vikings schedule are against the 20th or below ranked secondaries according to PFF. Even in the higher ranked secondary games against teams like the Packers, Saints, Dolphins, and Bills, Jefferson should draw the harder matchup and could see double coverage. Thielen has not been the same player we saw jump onto the scene in the 2017 and 2018 seasons, but 750.5 is too low for a guy that was on pace for 1,000 last season.
2. Terry McLaurin Over 1000.5 Receiving Yards (-112):
Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen Taylor Heinicke, and Garrett Gilbert. Those are the seven quarterbacks Terry McLaurin has had throw him the ball since he entered the NFL in 2019. Despite the uncertainty over who throws him the ball, one factor has remained consistent: Terry McLaurin will continue to do his thing.
Let’s take a look at his three year sample size:
Yards:
2019: 919 (14 games played)
2020: 1,118 (15 games played)
2021: 1,053 (17 games played)
Targets:
2020: 134 (10th)
2021: 130 (12th)
Despite the hodgepodge of signal callers, he’s also managed 10 games of 100+ receiving yards or more.
Although Carson Wentz has his flaws, he is by far the best quarterback that Terry McLaurin is going to play with thus far in his short career. Wentz is in a prove it year, and McLaurin will be his number one option. If Michael Pittman can manage 1,082 receiving yards with Wentz and the Colts last season, I think McLaurin should comfortably go over his 1000.5 projection.
3. Deebo Samuel Over 950.5 receiving yards (-112):
Deebo Samuel emerged as a dual threat in the 2021 NFL season. He ranked third in all purpose yards last season behind Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor. After the season ended, Deebo requested a trade from the 49ers that surprised many. One of the reasons, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported, was that Deebo didn’t love the idea of receiving and rushing. Wanting to be a more stable receiver, Deebo asked the organization to seek trade partners, but none have been met.
With the move to Trey Lance at quarterback, Deebo’s projections have gone down, but I only think that makes this a stronger bet. There will be growing pains for sure with Lance, but a player with the dynamic ability of Samuels leaves him more room to play with. Trey Lance also has a big arm that could connect with Samuels on some exciting long plays.
Here’s how Deebo Samuel & Trey Lance faired in the three games Lance really played in last season:
Houston
3 catches, 63 yards (45 yard TD) (6 targets)
Trey Lance hits Deebo Samuel for a 45-yard touchdown! LFG! #49ers pic.twitter.com/OU38IGYOPC
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) January 2, 2022
Arizona
3 catches 58 yards (9 targets)
Seattle
4 catches, 107 yards (76 yard TD) (6 targets) {Lance only played in the second half}
Trey Lance to Deebo Samuel for a 76-yard touchdown! pic.twitter.com/Xx7AcnWikM
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) October 3, 2021
Three game sample: 10 catches, 228 yards, 21 targets.
After Samuel voiced his displeasure having to run so many times in 2021, I expect the 49ers to scale back on that. They will want to do everything they can to keep their young superstar happy, and focus on building chemistry with Trey Lance through the passing game. Deebo should become that security blanket for Lance, and I think people are underrating Lances abilities as a quarterback. Even with his volume running, he still managed 1,405 receiving yards, placing him fifth among WR’s. It is a dramatic overthought by the bookmakers and his receiving O/U should be closer to 1,100. Would not be shocked if this moves to over 1,000 closer to the start of the season.
It was reported that Deebo is at 49ers training camp. Head coach Kyle Shanahan also said he is confident that Samuel will get a new contract and remain with the team for years to come.
4. CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Touchdowns (-112):
Through his first two seasons in the NFL, Lamb has finished with five & six touchdowns. From his rookie to sophomore years, Lamb increased his receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns. Lamb hasn’t found the endzone as much as some thought, but there was a big outlier in his way his first two seasons: Amari Cooper.
Redzone targets in the 2020 & 2021 season:
2020:
Amari Cooper: 15 targets, 7 completions, 5 TD’s
CeeDee Lamb: 13 targets, 6 completions, 3 TD’s
2021:
Amari Cooper: 17 targets, 13 completions, 4 TD’s
CeeDee Lamb: 15 targets, 6 completions, 3 TD’s
Now factor in that Amari Cooper will be wearing a Cleveland Browns jersey this season. Lamb should be able to double his targets (specifically redzone targets too) and touchdowns. A Dallas team that lead the NFL in scoring last season, will rely heavily on Lamb to take another jump in year four and score more touchdowns. Julius Luchs of Gridiron Heroics writes how CeeDee Lamb feels ready to be Dallas’ number one receiver, and is anticipated to take on a heavier workload. It’s a big year for CeeDee and I’m expecting big things.
5. Darren Waller Over 4.5 Touchdowns (-112):
The Las Vegas Raiders added a new offensive weapon this offseason with Davante Adams. Adams is going to eat into Wallers workload, but that doesn’t means there isn’t enough to go around. In 2019, Waller enjoyed a breakout year of 1,000+ yards and three scores. To follow that up in 2020, he once again had 1,000+ yards and found the endzone nine times en route to his first pro-bowl appearance. 2021 was a frustrating season for Waller battling injuries and only playing 11 games. In his 11 games, he saw 15 redzone targets which resulted in seven completions and two scores.
Derek Carr will have his choice of receivers for what should be a high power Vegas offense. Adding in Davante Adams could be seen as a negative for Waller, but I see it as a slight positive. Adams commands so much attention that it will deflect away from Waller who should be able to return back to his 2020 form with a healthy season.
New Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels is no stranger to getting tight ends involved in his offense from his experience with Rob Gronkowski in New England. McDaniels will be able to guide Waller around the field and five touchdowns should be easy for a guy who could see a lot of open passes this season. 12 of the Raiders 17 games are against bottom 15 defenses in opposing tight end touchdowns last season, Waller will have his looks.
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