There is a lot of buzz of teams potentially trading up in the NFL Draft to get a Top 10 overall pick to draft a quarterback. This happens every single year and year after year, it pays off for some teams while leaving others in a spot much worse with nowhere to look for hope.
This year, there are quite a few teams that are looking for a quarterback, as well as a draft full of highly rated quarterbacks, suggesting that teams may get pretty desperate to move up in the draft . Many teams may end up giving up a lot, including future picks and players, to secure what they hope will be their franchise quarterback. But is it worth the risk to bet everything on a quarterback? Or is it better to wait for a quarterback later in the draft? Let’s dive into the numbers.
Really a Hit or Miss Risk
Going back the last ten years, here are the top three quarterbacks who have been selected in each draft, if selected in the first 10 picks.
- 2013 – NONE
- 2014 – Blake Bortles
- 2015 – Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota
- 2016 – Jared Goff, Carson Wentz
- 2017 – Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes
- 2018 – Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen
- 2019 – Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones
- 2020 – Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert
- 2021 – Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance
- 2022 – NONE
- 2023 – Bryce Yong, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson
You’ll notice a few names that did not make this list, including Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts, who are all considered to be Top 15 quarterbacks in the NFL.
Looking at the players who would be considered ‘busts’ on this list, about half of them would fall into that category or be very close to it. For others, such as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, they were passed up by other quarterbacks despite still being a Top 10 pick in their NFL Draft.
The Best QB is Rarely Picked First
Looking at the last ten years, the best QB coming from each class would be the following:
- 2013 – Geno Smith
- 2014 – Derek Carr
- 2015 – Jameis Winston
- 2016 – Dak Prescott
- 2017 – Patrick Mahomes
- 2018 – Josh Allen
- 2019 – Daniel Jones
- 2020 – Joe Burrow
- 2021 – Trevor Lawrence
- 2022 – Brock Purdy
- 2023 – C.J Stroud (so far)
Looking at this list, and comparing it to where players were actually drafted, only Jameis Winston, Trevor Lawrence, and Joe Burrow were the first quarterbacks taken in their drafts. Everyone else was taken either second, third, fourth, or seventh (thanks, Purdy) in their draft. While this is a small sample size, the early indications show that a team risking it all to get to the first QB pick has about 30% of getting it right.
When comparing that to other positions, such as receiver or running back, generally, the top players end up excelling and doing well. So, is it worth this risk? That is where it gets tricky.
30% Star QB vs 90% Star Running Back in the NFL
The quarterback runs the show in the NFL. This is true now more than ever, as other positions are being either used less or defenses are getting better, forcing QBs to have more than just one or two targets. Because of this, it is a real question as to whether a QB with a 30% of being phenomenal is worth more than a skill position that is likely to be great from day one with much less risk.
On one hand, a great receiver can only be great if his QB can get him the ball. A running back can only be effective if the passing game is a threat. Yet, 30% is not great. In fact, it’s pretty bad. Yet, it is the decision that owners and coaches make every year in hopes of finding the future great QB.
So is it worth it? Apparently, otherwise, there wouldn’t be lines of GMs fighting to move up in the draft trying to get the next Tom Brady…. who ironically was drafted in the sixth round.
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