TCU Football is coming off a disappointing 5-7 season, just a year removed from playing in the National Championship against Georgia in 2022. The expectations at TCU are clearly to make a bowl game every year and be in a spot to play for a Big 12 Championship.
TCU has already taken significant steps this offseason to address issues they had last year, including bringing in a new quarterback, experienced assistant coaches, and having the second-best highest recruiting class in the Big 12.
The early season metrics and projections seem to think that TCU will be better. Fan Duel, considered one of the top sports betting platforms in the U.S., has the Horned Frogs over/under sitting at 7.5 games. Is this projection too high, too low, or just right?
Case For TCU’s Win Total Being Too High
TCU has made adjustments to be better than last year, but jumping from five wins to having a 50% to have at least eight wins seems like quite the jump. The issue is that there are a lot of new parts to the team, and essentially saying there is a 50% chance that the team will reach eight wins can seem a bit ambitious.
Perhaps of most significance, QB and possible starter Ken Seals (Vanderbilt), and the new coaches Andy Avalos (Boise State HC), and Ken Wilson (Nevada) are all coming from teams that weren’t exactly winning teams. Knowing how to win is a trait, and having a bunch of new faces that haven’t won in a while can sometimes be a concern.
The Case for TCU’s Win Total Being Too Low
Sonny Dykes knows how to win, and last year TCU was better than a five-win team. Yes, a team has to be able to finish out games, but TCU went 0-4 in one-score game last year. The law of averages says that TCU should have gone 2-2 in those games, which would have made their record 7-5.
Take Oklahoma and Texas out of the conference, and it’s simple to see how a 7-5 record becomes 8-4. Again, this may be more of a stretch, but if TCU is about as good as they were last year but can go .500 in one-score games, there is a path to see how the Horned Frogs could end up being 8-4 or better.
Case for 7.5 Wins Being Just Right
Again, 7.5 wins means essentially that there is a 50% that the Horned Frogs finish with seven or fewer wins, and a 50% they have eight or more wins. Similar to the last point, TCU probably won’t be going 0-4 in one-score games again. From a betting standpoint, they should go about .500.
Looking at the schedule, there are five games they should win (LIU, Stanford, Cincinnati, Baylor, and Houston) and three games they will likely lose (Utah, Oklahoma State, and Arizona). The other four games can be thrown into the “toss-up” category (Kansas, SMU, Texas Tech, and UCF). If TCU goes 2-2 in those games, they finish with seven wins, or right at the mark. One upset and they are an eight-win team and over.
Final Verdict
NEW: 2024 College Football Big 12 Win Totals👀
Kansas State: 9.5
Utah: 9.5
Arizona: 8.5
Kansas: 8.5
Texas Tech: 8.5
UCF: 8.5
Iowa State: 7.5
Oklahoma State: 7.5
TCU: 7.5
West Virginia: 6.5
Baylor: 5.5
Cincinnati: 5.5
Colorado: 5.5
Arizona State: 4.5
BYU: 4.5
Houston: 4.5(via… pic.twitter.com/dRFt2GuBJA
— On3 (@On3sports) February 11, 2024
After analyzing all of the factors going into next season and realizing that there could still be a lot that happens in the transfer portal that can drastically change everything, the 7.5 wins feel a bit high. Don’t be shocked if the final number ends up landing at 7, or even 6.5 wins before the start of the season.
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