The Purdue Boilermakers (2-2) travel to Minneapolis to take on the #21 Minnesota Gophers (4-0) at Huntington Bank Stadium at 12 pm (EST) in their homecoming game. The Gophers are currently a 12.5-point favorite and are given an 80.1% chance to win according to ESPN’s FPI. The Gophers are coming off of a massive win in East Lansing, beating the Spartans 34-7 in convincing fashion. The Boilermakers on the other hand struggled at home against Florida Atlantic in their 28-26 win in their homecoming game.
This week’s matchup against the Gophers is Purdue’s biggest game since they opened the season against Penn State. If they win it could help get their season back on track. A loss drops the Boilermakers to 2-3 with an 0-2 record in conference play. For the Gophers another win here propels them into their bye week at 5-0. A loss will bring questions about how good they really are. With that, let’s take a look at what to expect in the Purdue vs. #21 Minnesota matchup.
Minnesota
The Minnesota Gophers have been one of the nation’s most dominant teams this season. While they have played a weak schedule they have yet to falter, including last week against Michigan State. The Gophers rank third in total offense (540.0 yards per game), being second in rushing (294.5 yards per game) but rank only 67 in passing offense (248.5 yards per game). They are first in time of possession (40 minutes), first in first downs (126), and 11th in points per game (45.8).
Teams have struggled to stop Minnesota, as they do pretty much whatever they want offensively. Mohamed Ibrahim and Tanner Morgan have had great starts to the year. Morgan so far has a completion percentage of 77.2%(second in the nation), throwing for 886 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception. On the ground Ibrahim has led the way with 567 yards, eight touchdowns on 89 carries, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Minnesota will look to see these continue their strong performances verses Purdue.
What To Watch
While the Minnesota offense has been great, I have to watch that Gopher defense. They aren’t flashy and scoring touchdowns or getting a ton of turnovers (although they did get three last week) but are solid and dominant. In fact, the Gophers lead the nation in total defense with 187.8 yards per game, are third in rushing defense (61.8) and second in passing yards allowed (126.0). They also rank second in scoring defense (six points per game), second in first downs allowed (42), and have allowed opponents on average to possess the ball for 20 minutes.
Behind the defense is defensive coordinator Joe Rossi who has helped Minnesota carry over its strong end to 2021’s performance into this season. Purdue will have their hands full with a team that doesn’t let you do much on either side of the ball. Minnesota also has six turnovers this season (three coming last week) and Purdue is averaging 1.25 a game. Minnesota will look to take advantage of this, especially if their quarterback Aidan O’Connell is out again.
Biggest Question
My biggest question for the Gophers is can they keep this up? Seriously. I don’t know who can compete with them until Penn State in four weeks. I do see Illinois as a challenge, but they get them off their bye week. After Penn State I just don’t know who I see beating Minnesota. Wisconsin and Iowa haven’t proven to be good. Rutgers, Nebraska, and Northwestern shouldn’t be any better than the Spartans and likely the Boilermakers. So, outside of a White Out matchup with the Nittany Lions, I don’t see anyone who could beat them until the Big 10 championship game. Now there is a lot of football left to play, but I just don’t see who is slowing this team down if they keep up this dominating level of play.
Purdue
Purdue’s 2-2 record looks worse than it appears. Their two close losses are to Penn State and Syracuse who are a combined 8-0. Their wins though have not been impressive. They blew out Indiana State 59-0, and then struggled against Florida Atlantic at home last week. The struggle is to be mostly placed in the absence of quarterback Aidan O’Connell, who was out with an undisclosed injury. In his place, quarterback Austin Burton took over. Against FAU, he went 21/29 with 166 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. He will need to step up if O’Connell is unable to play Saturday, as the Gophers are a much better team than FAU.
What To Watch
What I am watching is the Boilermakers offense against the Gophers’ defense. This is a tall task for Purdue. The Boilermakers average 446.5 yards per game with 311.0 passing and 135.5 yards rushing. Minnesota on the other hand allows only 187.8 yards per game with 126.0 passing and 61.8 rushing. If starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell is out again, it will be that much harder for them to move the ball on this defense. Senior Austin Burton proved he could help this team win, but the Gophers aren’t FAU, and he will need to be that much better if O’Connell can’t play.
Biggest Question
The biggest question I have for Purdue is who will we see at quarterback? Purdue’s starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell missed last week’s game with an undisclosed injury. Austin Burton started in his absence and Michael Alaimo got a tiny bit of action as well. The biggest issue with O’Connell’s injury is that the offense loses its big play ability. Against FAU, Purdue attempted only one pass greater than 20-yards and had eight pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage. The Boilermakers aren’t just beat up at quarterback, but across the board. Joining O’Connell with a questionable status for Saturday are Jalen Graham (S/LB), Brock Thompson (WR), Cam Craig (OL), Reese Taylor (CB), and King Doerue (RB), all of whom missed last week’s game. If these players are out for the game, it will make competing against the Gophers that much harder.
Bold Predictions
My bold prediction is that the Gophers defense will not give up more than 200 yards of total offense, will give up only three points, and will have two turnovers. This will be especially true if Aidan O’Connell doesn’t play. Minnesota has tape on the backups, so they’ll be prepared for whoever gets the starting nod. Minnesota is going to shut down their run game as they have to everyone and force Purdue to make something work in the passing game, which they won’t be able to. In the end, some attempted deep shots to get back in the game, will result in turnovers and Purdue will drop to 2-3 on the year.
Betting
The following betting lines are according to ESPN’s Pick Center. It is also worth noting that the original line was -10. Since then the Gophers have gained 2.5 points, something to watch in the coming days if it changes anymore.
Spread:
- Purdue: +12.5
- Minnesota: -12.5
Moneyline:
- Purdue: +360
- Minnesota: -450
Over/Under: 52.5
Where To Watch
Purdue vs. #21 Minnesota will air on ESPN2 at 12 pm (EST). You can watch the game on the ESPN app or on their website (you will need to have a TV provider to watch). Streaming Services that have ESPN are fuboTV, Youtube TV, Sling, Hulu (with live TV), and DirecTV Stream. Unfortunately, if you have an ESPN+ subscription it does not give you access to ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU, so you will not be able to watch the game.
Prediction
This isn’t going to be a close one. Unfortunately, for Purdue, they’ll suffer their worst loss of the season. Minnesota is just too good on both sides of the ball, and they aren’t good enough to stop their offense or move the ball on their defense. The Gophers’ balanced offensive attack will dominate the Boilermaker defense and control the time of possession. In the end there isn’t much Purdue can do to stop the Gophers. Minnesota wins 37-3.
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