NFL Week 7 is upon us as bettors anxiously start to look at what spreads stand out. This article discusses some of our favorites heading into Sunday’s action.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host a big divisional game against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. At the time of writing, they are 2.5-point home favorites in this game.
Points will likely be at a premium in this game. That is because these two teams average a combined 34.5 points per game.
Both defenses have played well this season too. They allow a combined 37.6 points per game.
So, why do I like Tampa Bay? It comes down to turnover differential.
The Buccaneers are much better at protecting the football. They have a +6 turnover differential and only have four total turnovers this season.
As for the Falcons, they can count on quarterback Desmond Ridder throwing at least one interception in each game. Their turnover differential is much worse at -6.
If the current trends hold, expect this game to be decided by a big Falcons turnover. Give me the Buccaneers to cover this spread.
Chicago Bears (+2.5)
My favorite underdog this week is the Chicago Bears. They host the Las Vegas Raiders, who have won their last two games.
The big headline for this game is quarterback health. Both Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Fields suffered injuries during their Week 6 games. Garoppolo is dealing with a back injury and Fields has a dislocated right thumb. Both are likely to miss Sunday’s game.
With the Raiders playing well lately and the Bears being a dumpster fire this season, some may question why the Bears are the right side in this game. The answer is that you can’t count on the Raiders’ rushing attack.
Las Vegas ranks in the bottom five when it comes to points per game (16.7) and rushing yards per game (73.5).
Despite their 3-3 record, there are real concerns with running back Josh Jacobs. He has regressed significantly this season.
Right now, he is on pace to have fewer than 1,000 rushing yards when he had 1,653 last year. Plus, he is only on pace to have half of the rushing touchdowns he did last season (12).
If that was not enough, the Bears are great against the run. They rank eighth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (89.5).
Both teams are likely going to have a hard time passing the ball if Garoppolo can’t play. Whether he plays or not, the Raiders are likely going to be too one-dimensional for this matchup. I expect Chicago to take advantage of this and get the home win.
Green Bay Packers (-1)
Finally, we have a Green Bay Packers team that is coming off of a bye. When we last saw them, they had a heartbreaking loss in Week 5 on Monday Night Football to the Las Vegas Raiders. Now, they go on the road to face the Denver Broncos.
Neither team is great offensively. Both only average about 200 passing yards per game. They are about average in points per game (Packers with 22.6 and Broncos with 21.5).
While the Packers admittedly have had a hard time running the ball (just 81.6 rushing yards per game), the Broncos really struggle on defense.
Denver allows 103 more total yards per game compared to Green Bay. On top of this, the Denver Broncos are last in the NFL in points allowed per game (33.3).
I think defensive talent is going to make the difference here. With that in mind, I am taking the Packers to get the road win.
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