NFL season-long player props and weekly player props are getting much more popular by the day. With it still being early in the preseason, there is still plenty of time to get in on the action. There are some good odds and numbers on many different player props, like Daniel Jones’ passing yards. Here’s a couple more season-long player props worth locking in right now.
RB ANTONIO GIBSON, Washington Commanders: UNDER 7.5 RUSHING TDS (-150 DK)
After posting 11 rushing touchdowns in his rookie season, Gibson’s ran the ball into the endzone only seven times in 2021. He is still primed to be the lead back for the Washington Commanders this season. However, his production in the endzone could be limited more this season.
The Commanders selected Alabama running back Brian Robinson Jr. in the third round. Many people believe Robinson will be the team’s short-yardage and goal-line back. That’s an immediate red flag for any over rushing touchdown betting. Plus, Ron Rivera compared his backfield situation to a duo he had back in Carolina.
Ron Rivera likened the potential 1-2 punch of Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson to the Jonathan Stewart/ D'Angelo Willians pairing he used in Carolina. That's his hope.
Stewart & Williams were a terrific tandem in Rivera's Panthers backfield together from 2011 to 2014.
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) May 5, 2022
Neither Jonathan Stewart nor DeAngelo Williams scored more than seven rushing touchdowns in any season from 2011 to 2014. If they’re splitting carries with Robinson getting the scoring opportunities, it’s hard to see how Gibson surpasses the number.\
QB BAKER MAYFIELD, Carolina Panthers: UNDER 3700.5 PASSING YDS (-115 DK)
First of all, how certain is it Baker wins the starting QB over Sam Darnold? That question alone makes this bet enticing to lock in now. Plus, even if Mayfield wins the job, there’s always potential for Darnold, Matt Corral or P.J. Walker to replace him at some point during the season.
Remember, the Panthers traded a conditional 2024 pick for him. The Browns will receive a fourth- or fifth-round pick. The pick becomes a fourth-rounder if Mayfield plays 70% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps this season. If Carolina is out of the playoff chase late in the season, management could easily pull the plug on Baker to preserve the better pick.
On the flip side, Mayfield went over 3,700 passing yards in each of his first two seasons and would have crossed it in 2020 under a 17-game schedule. In 2021, he only had 3,010 passing yards through 14 games, but missed the final three games due to a injury to his non-throwing shoulder which he had played through up until that point.
Still, the number feels high. A Pro Football Focus researcher projects the Panthers to have the 5th toughest schedule for passing offenses. That is not a great projection for a team with a new quarterback, who arrived late this offseason.
QB Zach Wilson, New York Jets: UNDER 3750.5 PASSING YDS (-115 DK)
This is one of the more head-scratching season-long props. Zach Wilson only had 2,334 passing yards in 13 games last season. Even if he played the full season, he still would have fallen short of this number.
Yes, the Jets beefed up their receiving corps by drafting wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall. However, can Wilson get them the ball? He only completed 55.6% of his passes last season. Plus, he’ll need to bump that up to at least 60% to have a shot at reaching 3,750 passing yards.
Plus, he’ll need his passing yards per game average to jump from 179.5 to over 220 passing ypg. For reference, he only crossed that per game benchmark only four out of the 13 games he played. It’s hard to anticipate Wilson making a sizable jump like that even with more weapons and another offseason under his belt.
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