A NFL season-long player prop worth focusing on involves New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. The 25-year-old pro enters his fourth season with the franchise on the hot seat. He’s logged 8,398 passing yards with a 45-29 Passing TD-INT ratio over his career. He’s also been a running threat with 1,000 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately, the Giants are only 12-25 in games he starts. His now-or-never situation makes all his season-long player props intriguing.
Statistically, Jones has been a decent player. However, injuries and turnovers are why his status with the Giants is in limbo. The team declined his fifth-year option of his rookie contract. Jones will certainly be motivated to prove he’s still worthy of being a starting QB in the NFL. Is that motivation enough to overcome his clear drawbacks?
3650.5 Regular Season Passing Yards: Under (+105 DK)
If Jones played a full season, his career 221.0 passing yard per game average would project him to have 3,757 this season. However, availability for the full regular season has been an issue for Jones. He’s had an injury that’s caused him to miss games in each of his three seasons with the Giants.
Plus, there’s added pressure behind Jones. Veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor joined the team during free agency. While he has come in to primarily be a backup, there’s a possibility Taylor takes the starting job outright. Especially, if Jones continues to have trouble in camp.
Tyrod Taylor just replaced Daniel Jones with the starting offense for one play 👀.
Hard to tell why Jones got the hook, but there was a busted play on the previous snap and Daboll didn’t seem happy. Jones back in after one play.
— Dan Duggan (@DDuggan21) August 8, 2022
Those optimistic about the over believe Jones’ new head coach Brian Daboll will give the QB a huge uplift. It could certainly happen as the Buffalo Bills finished 9th in passing yards with Daboll as OC last year. Plus, receivers like Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney and Wan’dale Robinson are capable of racking up yards.
Unfortunately, it is hard to overlook the injury history and inconsistent play. As a result, under 3,650 yards feels like the play.
21.5 Regular Season Passing TDs: Lean Under (+100 DK)
It’s similar rationale for this season-long player prop as the other. Can Jones play enough games to reach the number? History suggests he will not. Thus, there is a strong lean towards the under. On top of that, Jones has struggled finding the endzone with his passes.
After throwing 24 passing TDs in his rookie season, Jones only had eleven in 2020 and ten in 2021. He struggled even more when his offense had redzone opportunities. He had a 38.1 completion percentage with only five passing TDs. in the redzone last season. Daboll should improve the quarterback’s redzone accuracy, but it’s hard to believe that be enough.
Plus, a healthy Saquon Barkley could take some of the scoring opportunities through the air away from Jones.
350.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards: Lean Over (-115 DK)
There’s obviously some risk with season-long player prop because running is how Daniel Jones likely gets hurt. However, Daboll’s offense in Buffalo had designed QB runs for Josh Allen. Jones is not the bruising type of runner that Allen is, but he is capable.
Jones eclipsed 350.5 rushing yards back in 2020. The other two seasons he finished just short of 300 rushing yards each. If the quarterback stays healthy, he projects to finish over this number. There’s also a chance he can reach the benchmark even if he misses a few games (like 2020).
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