The four remaining QBs in the NFL Playoffs consist of three first-round draft picks and Mr. Irrevelant. You couldn’t draw it up any weirder. But as everyone knows, draft position means only so much when it comes to on-field success. Take Puka Nacua, for example. This past season, Nacua broke the NFL receptions, receiving yards, and the NFL Playoff reception record for any NFL rookie. Nacua was a late 5th-round draft pick, with well over a dozen other receivers picked up before him.
As we prepare for the NFC and AFC Championships, both games very well could come down to the quarterback play of each team. There is a saying that defense wins championships, yet in these playoffs, all four teams are in the Top 10 in total offense.
Ranking the Remaining Quarterbacks in the NFL Playoffs
There are a lot of different ways to break down or interpret which quarterbacks are better than the others. For example, if looking at the completion percentage, Lamar Jackson didn’t even rank in the Top 10 this past season, yet he led the league among quarterbacks in rushing yards. Which one is more valuable? That depends on how you interpret it.
For this particular list, each QB is going to be given three grades: Total offense, clutch factor, and overall impact on the game.
Total Offense – Pretty self-explanatory: Pass yards + Rush yards – sack yards.
Clutch Factor – What was the QB record in the one-score games? How well did they play against teams who ended up in the NFL Playoffs?
Impact on the Game: Can the offense survive without their QB? Is the defense good enough to keep the team in it, or can a run game bail out a struggling QB?
The player with the lowest score wins.
4. Brock Purdy
Total Offense: 3rd (4,280 pass yards + 144 rush yards – 144 yards = 4,280 total yards)
Clutch Factor: 4th
Brock Purdy led the 49ers to a 14-4 overall record this past season, and there weren’t all that many one-score games. In fact, the Niners only played in three regular-season games that were decided by one score and went 1-2 in those games. Interestingly, including their 24-21 win over Green Bay in the Divisional Round, Purdy was 2-0 in close games against eventual NFL Playoff teams and 0-2 against teams who missed the playoffs.
For Purdy, it’s difficult to give him a clutch rating because, in many ways, he was so clutch for entire games at a time, along with an elite defense, that he didn’t have to be ‘clutch’ to finish out games.
Impact on the Game: 4th
Of all the teams left in the NFL Playoffs, none of the teams had the complimentary rushing offense that the 49ers had. Although the Ravens had more rushing yards per game, many of those yards came from Lamar Jackson, whereas the 49ers seldom used the legs of Brock Purdy.
San Francisco’s defense was on par with Kansas City and Baltimore (3rd in scoring defense overall). The one big difference is in takeaways. The 49ers ranked tied for second in the league in takeaways per game with 1.7 per game. The next closest playoff team was Detriot at 18th overall, or 1.3 per game.
This shouldn’t take anything away from what Brock Purdy did this season. But when splitting hairs, having the best running game, and best defense at getting takeaways, Purdy’s effect on the outcome of the games has the least impact of any on this list.
Total Points: 11
3. Jared Goff
Total Offense: 2nd (4575 pass yards + 21 rush yards – 197 sack yards = 4399 total yards)
Clutch Factor: 3rd
Jared Goff was 7-3 in one-score games but only posted a 3-3 record in the regular season against eventual playoff teams, a number which is significantly lower than other QBs on the list. It is worth noting that Detriot started 3-0 in these games and has since gone 2-3 including the NFL Playoffs.
As a general resume goes, Goff has the weakest with recent struggles in one-score games, particularly against good teams.
Impact on the Game: 2nd
When Goff struggled, the team seemed to struggle as well. In games where Goff threw below his season average of 67.3%, the team went 3-5. In games he threw higher than his average, the Lions were 8-1.
Also, when Goff struggled, he really struggled. In losses, Goff’s QBR was 45.22. In wins, Goff was at 64.39, nearly 20 entire points better. This stat alone shows how much the Lions need Goff to play well to have any chance in the NFC Championship Game.
One thing to watch is how he will play as the NFL Playoffs continue. The storyline of the week is the Detroit Lions trying to reach their first Super Bowl. However, another storyline will be Goff, who has played in a Super Bowl and will try to avenge his loss to the Patriots in 2018.
Total: 7 Points
2. Patrick Mahomes
Total Offense: 1st (4193 pass yards + 389 rush yards – 182 sack yards = 4,400 total yards)
Yes, Mahomes beat Goff by a single yard.
Clutch Factor: 3rd
It seems crazy to consider that Mahomes isn’t the most clutch player, but this year, the analytics suggest that the Chiefs weren’t as good on offense as they’ve been in the past. During the regular season, the Chiefs were 5-5 in one-score games and 2-4 in games against eventual NFL Playoff teams. All six of these games were one-score games.
In many of these games, Mahomes had an opportunity to lead his team to either overtime or a win. Only against Cincinnati did the Chiefs come back from a 4th quarter deficit to eventually win the game. Every other win happened either with a lead or tied game going into the final 15 minutes.
Impact on the Game: 2nd
Similar to Goff, much of the team’s success came when Mahomes played well. In games where Mahomes threw below his season completion average of 67.2%, the Chiefs went 2-6 overall. In games where he threw above his average, the team never lost.
One thing that is keeping Mahomes back from a higher score is the Chief’s defense. The Chiefs ranked 14th in the league in points per game, showing that it was their defense that stepped up to get some of the wins. What makes Mahomes tricky is his NFL Playoff history. For whatever reason, when Mahomes reaches the NFL Playoffs, he has a switch, similar to how Lebron James becomes a new player in the NBA Finals.
Total: 6 Points
1. Lamar Jackson
Total Offense: 4th– (3,678 pass yards + 821 rush yards – 247 sacks yards = 4,252 yards)
Clutch Factor: 1st
The Ravens finished with an NFL-best 14-3 overall record, including a 4-3 record in one-score games. Additionally, Lamar Jackson led his team to an impressive 9-3 record against teams who eventually made the playoffs, a record significantly better than any other team in the entire league.
Similar to Purdy, Jackson, and the Ravens were so good that Jackson wasn’t asked to come up in the clutch all that often. Still, when needed, Jackson was effective as he is the only QB left in the playoffs to have a winning record in one-score games.
Impact on the Game: 1st
Lamar Jackson, by far, has the most impact of possibly any player in the entire NFL. Opposing offenses changed their entire gameplan to adjust to the playstyle of Jackson, often resulting in turnovers, missed opportunities, and not many points.
Jackson is the definition of a game manager. Statistically, he isn’t at the top of many categories outside of rushing yards, yet time after time, he led his teams to big wins. He just always seems to make the right play at the right time. It almost didn’t matter what happened on first and second down, because there was a good chance that the Ravens would convert on 3rd down.
The Ravens ranked fifth in the league in time of possession, ahead of the three other teams. They also had the highest 4th down conversion percentage of any of the final four teams, ahead of Detroit by 8%. Jackson’s threat as a runner on 3rd and 4th and short was almost as much as a nightmare as the Eagles running the tush-push QB sneak.
Total: 6 Points
TIEBREAKER was given to Lamar Jackson because his clutch factor was so much significantly higher than anyone on the list, whereas Mahomes only beat Goff by a single yard in passing. Those two gaps made the difference.
Conclusion
All four of these NFL Playoff quarterbacks are phenomenal players, and each can confidently claim to be a Top 10 player in the league. One common thread that connects all four of these players is that they all played just about the entire season. In a season where it seemed a franchise quarterback was going down every week, these four were able to stay healthy and lead their teams to where they are today.
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