In this edition of Lucas’ Locks, I’ll be combing over my favorite Over/Under Win totals for the Pac-12. For the sake of the article, I used BetMGM’s win total numbers. I picked only five that I actually felt confident enough to bet my own money on, and here they are:
Utah – Over/Under 9 Wins
I’ll start with my personal pick for the Pac-12 Champion, the Utah Utes. Coming off a really good 2021 season where they Won the Pac-12 and finished 10-4. From that team, they return 13 starters including veteran QB Cameron Rising who took over as the starting QB mid-season. The offense was significantly better once he took over, and almost left you to wonder what that team could’ve done has he been starting all season. Nevertheless; he returns as the leader of the offense for 2022 and also is joined by returnee Tavion Thomas who ran for over 1,100 yards and 20 TD’s. According to FootballScoop, they have one of the best offensive line coaches in the country on the staff in Jim Harding, which has me feeling good about the offense as a whole entering 2022.
The defense loses key pieces Devin Lloyd and Nephi Sewell, but replace them with a very talented Freshman in Lander Barton who is expected to start from Day 1. Head Coach Kyle Whittingham is known for his physical teams who play really good defense, and despite losing some key pieces from last year to the NFL, I don’t expect them to drop off much, if at all, in 2022 defensively. Expect Utah to be in the Pac-12 Championship game once again in 2022.
The Utes first game down in Gainseville, FL. is the most interesting to me on the schedule, but I think they go into The Swamp and come back with a Win. After that, the 3 games they could lose are USC at home, at UCLA, and at Oregon. I got them winning at least 1 of those 3, which would get them to 10 wins. I’ll take the over here.
The Pick: Utah Over 9 Wins
USC – Over/Under 9.5 Wins
Lincoln Riley comes over from Oklahoma to spearhead what should be a really good offense for the Trojans. Oklahoma Transfer QB Caleb Williams will have a plethora of great WR’s to throw to, including Jordan Addison the 2021 Biletnikoff winner and another OU transfer in Mario Williams. With these weapons, I have no doubt that Riley will concoct a Top-15 type offense for the Trojans this fall.
The questions however, start to surface on the defensive side of the ball. Alex Grinch will have his hands full in his first season as USC’s Defensive Coordinator, as the Trojans return only 3 defensive starters from a defense that surrendered a school record 31.8 points per game. Good news is, there’s a lot of fresh faces on that side of the ball. I have some optimism that the new coaching staff can get more out of their players than the former coaching staff did on that side of the ball. All they should need to have a good season is a Top-60 type defensive unit given Lincoln Riley’s track record for offensive production.
I got 9 “Should wins” for USC in 2022 with three toss-ups in Utah, UCLA, and Notre Dame. I think they can win 1/3 there and avoid any upsets along the way, so give me the Over 9.5 Wins in Riley’s inaugural season at USC.
The Pick: USC Over 9.5 Wins
UCLA – Over/Under 8 Wins
UCLA is another team I’m high on entering 2022 because they return Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB and Zach Charbonnet at RB. Behind those two, UCLA had a Top 10 offense in 2021 scoring over 36 points per game. With their two biggest two stars returning on that side of the ball, I expect them to be good again on offense in 2022.
UCLA also only returns 3 defensive starters in 2022 but that too could be a positive as they were 61st in scoring defense, and 103rd in passing defense in 2021. Even without much defensive improvements, the win total here is only 8.
I have them with 9 “Should wins” and 3 toss-ups next fall. The toss-ups to me are Utah at home, USC at home, and at Oregon. Even if they lose all three of those games, I still got them at 9 wins on the season so I am taking the Over 8 here rather easily.
The Pick: UCLA Over 8 Wins
Arizona State – Over/Under 5.5 Wins
If I’m being honest, this is really more of a hunch than anything. With all the negative news the past two off-seasons for Herm Edwards and his staff, I don’t see them having a bounceback year in 2022. Former starting QB Jayden Daniels transferred to LSU, leaving Alabama transfer Paul Tyson and Trenton Bourguet to duke it out for the starting gig. No matter who ends up winning this job, neither of them have done much at the college level and will also not have a ton of weapons to work with surrounding them. I think they struggle for good QB play, and thus struggle to move the ball consistently in 2022.
While I like the defense to be a Top 30-type unit once again, with not much of an offense to support them there could be a lot of pressure on this unit to perform. At this point as well, you have to wonder how that locker room feels after losing so many assistant coaches due to the Recruiting Scandal.
I would argue just making it to 6 wins would be a good year for Herm and his squad, but I only have 5 “Should wins” I see on the schedule. 4 of their first 6 games are likely losses for me in Oklahoma State, USC, Utah, and Washington and that’s the point where I could see things really start to spiral for Arizona State. If the locker room remains strong and intact, they could recover to finish 6-6 but I’d bet against it.
The Pick: Arizona State Under 5.5 Wins
Oregon State – Over/Under 6.5 Wins
I am somewhat high on the job Head Coach Jonathan Smith has done at Oregon State, but this win total is simply too high for me. They start off with Boise State and Fresno State, which could both be losses. They also play at Utah, at Washington, and host Oregon. Best case, I’m seeing 7-5 here, with a much more likely scenario being 6-6 or 5-7. I’ll take the easy under here.
The Pick: Oregon State Under 6.5 Wins