The College Football Playoff is expanding to 12 teams this year which means for the first time ever, all 134 FBS schools have a shot at making the playoff. In the past, to make it, one of two things had to happen; either go undefeated and hope everyone else loses a ton of games (Cincinnati), or be a big enough brand and go undefeated or have one excusable loss.
For teams like Appalachian State, UNLV, Boise State, and, in last year’s case, Florida State, nothing could be done to guarantee a spot in the Playoff. Now, if a team goes undefeated and wins their conference championship, they are in. Even in the crazy case of two G5 undefeated champions, one would imagine that an undefeated champion would at least crack the Top 12 and get an at-large spot.
With that, the next question becomes which team in each conference has the best shot at making the playoff. Sure, it would be easy to look at the best team in every conference, but it goes deeper than that. In some conferences, the best team may have the toughest schedule, so perhaps the second or third-best team has the best shot at being undefeated at the end of the season.
In fact, in this three-part series, most of the teams that have the easiest path to the CFP aren’t the best teams, at least on paper. With conferences getting so large, the strength of schedule disparity between teams within a conference is so large that they barely even resemble playing in the same conference.
Part Three Breakdown
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This breakdown of which teams are the most likely to make the Playoffs will be divided into three articles.
- Part 1 will be the AAC, ACC, Big 12,
- Part 2 will cover Big 10, Conference USA, Independents, MAC
- Part 3 will conclude with the Pac-12, Mountain West, SEC, and Sun Belt
AAC – South Florida
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Yes, I know that the Bulls are projected to finish third or fourth in the conference, but they also have the best opportunity of any team. They play Alabama and Miami. If, and it is a big if, the Bulls can pull off one of these two upsets, they would likely be the G5 darling for the rest of the season as long as they win.
According to College Football Network, the Bulls have a very favorable schedule in actual AAC play. They avoid four of the top eight teams while playing the four lowest-ranked teams.
With a 12-1 record and a win like Miami or Alabama on the resume, the Bulls would certainly have more than enough to be considered an at-large team, if not the highest-rated G5 champion.
ACC – SMU
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Again, this list isn’t the most likely to be the best team in the conference, just the most likely to make the Playoff. It’s tough to know whether the Mustangs will be ready for P4-level football, but they did finish ranked in the Top 25 last year, so there is some belief that they are ready.
However, their schedule is set up nicely for them to go 11-1 and make the playoff as an at-large, even if they played and lost in the ACC Championship game. Their toughest games are hosting Florida State and traveling to Lousiville. Besides that, there isn’t anyone else on their schedule who is projected to win more than six or seven games. In fact, it’s possible they play the six worst teams in the ACC and host TCU and BYU, which are the bottom half of the Big 12 teams.
Put all that together, and SMU very realistically could be the fifth-best team with the second-best record and an at-large spot waiting for them.
Feast your eyes.#PonyUpDallas pic.twitter.com/FwS0kiduh4
— SMU Football (@SMUFB) July 19, 2024
Big 12 – Kansas
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If you were to go back three years ago and read this, you’d be shocked, but here we are. The Kansas Jayhawks, like SMU, are expected to be a solid team, but they have a schedule that is way easier than it should be.
For some perspective, Utah, Kansas State, Arizona, and Oklahoma State are expected to be the four best teams in the conference. Kansas only plays Kansas State out of those four. The bottom five teams are Baylor, Colorado, BYU, Houston, Arizona State, and Cincinnati. Kansas plays every single one of those teams except Cinci.
Like SMU, Kansas could be the fifth-best team in the conference, but their record may reflect a top two or three, opening up a playoff spot for them.
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