Florida State and Clemson to the Big 12 Becoming a Real Possibility

Last week, there were reports that Florida State and Clemson may be starting to have talks with the Big 12 as a possible destination if they are able to get out of the ACC. Those rumors seemed like an unlikely reality, probably rooted in a third-party conversation that got turned into something that it really wasn’t.

Or is it?

More credible sources are now starting to issue statements about rumors and conversations between the Big 12 and the two biggest brands in the ACC.

What Has Been Confirmed?

To this point, not much has been confirmed, and it is unlikely that much will be confirmed until when and if it actually happens. This isn’t anything new. Last year, when the Pac-12 collapsed, there were plenty of rumors but very few actual facts and confirmed information until the actual announcements were made.

That being said, here is what we do know.

• Florida State and Clemson want to get out of the ACC. They are both upset about being at the P4 level and having in-state rivals paid tens of millions of dollars more than they are (Florida and South Carolina)
• Brett Yormark, the Big 12 Commissioner, has stated that the conference is “Open for business”, the exact line he used last year before they added the Pac-12 schools.
• The Big 12 is working on massive lucrative deals that will help close the game between them and the SEC and Big 10. With a naming rights deal (Allstate) and a private equity deal on the table, it is very possible that each Big 12 school could make up to $15-20 million more per year.
• ESPN and FOX would benefit from this deal. Tony Altimore released a graphic showing that 60% of viewership in the ACC comes from games involving Clemson, Notre Dame, and Florida State. That leaves 40% for the remaining 15 schools. Why would this be beneficial for FOX and ESPN? If they could help make this move happen, ESPN could re-negotiate their deal with the Big 12 for maybe half of what they currently pay the ACC. FOX would also be happy to throw in a few million per school if it means rights to a few FSU/Notre Dame/Clemson games a year.
• Trusted and reliable reporters are now stating that there is at least something going on between the two schools and Big 12. These include Tony Altimore, Josh Pate, and, most notably, Jason Scheer, who said they will likely make the move in the next year.

According to sources, there is an internal belief in the Big 12 that Florida State and Clemson are likely to join the conference within the next year or so.

— Jason Scheer (@jasonscheer) July 14, 2024

What Would the Big 12 Adding Florida State and Clemson Do to College Football?

There has been a long-held belief that the SEC and Big 10 are on track to create a ‘Super League’ of the two conferences and leave everyone else to compete for some secondary championship, similar to the FCS or DII college football.

By making a deal like this, the Big 12 would position itself in an almost impossible-to-ignore spot. The Big 10 and SEC would have a tough time dropping the Big 12 when it is ten times better than any other conference. Doing this would eliminate the ACC and make it a three-conference league with everyone else far below them.

There is a real chance that if the Big 12 can pull this deal off, the Super League’s timeline will be expedited before the end of the decade. After all, there would be three conferences, each member making more than $50 million annually in TV revenue. In comparison, every other conference has a deal where teams make less than $5 million annually.

With the transfer portal and NIL, the gap would just widen every year to the point where a team like Boise State, Tulane, or Washington State would rather have their own championship and playoff just so they at least have a chance.

Clemson fans on their way to join Big 12 twitter. pic.twitter.com/g9Kx0lj99E https://t.co/GdeH1jVpeZ

— Tech N Tortillas 🌵 (@techntortillas) July 14, 2024

What’s the Timeline?

This is where things get more complicated. Unlike a year ago when USC and UCLA were already slated to leave the Pac-12, there hasn’t been any movement yet in the ACC, and there are no tv media deals about to expire. Last year, one thing that killed the Pac-12 was the low media deal ESPN, AppleTV, and others were offering them. The ACC is already in the middle of their media deal (until 2036), and every other P4 conference still has a few years left on their deals.

Because of this, the timeline is very tough to predict. It’s possible that this conversation could be going on in three years. We may also be discussing FSU and Clemson in the Big 12 joining in 2025. This timeline is very interesting, but there have been rumors thrown out about early August. Those claims don’t carry a ton of individual credibility.

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