Official Rankings
My College Football Playoff Rankings Week 11
Top 25
1) Georgia
The Dawgs are still on top. They overcome adversity like a couple of interceptions and get the ball in the hands of their playmakers and are the top team in football.
2) Michigan
The Wolverines and the Buckeyes are interchangeable to me at this point. That’s why I have them ranked #2 but have the Buckeyes in my playoff projections. It can easily be the other way around. Michigan’s big advantage is they are firm in their foundation of who they are as a team. Ohio State though…
3) Ohio State
The Buckeyes through 10 games are still trying to figure out who they are. They are better defensively but what happens when they play a team with equal talent? They’re making small improvements on offense to be more balanced but can they dominate an equal opponent in the trenches? These question marks are why the Wolverines are ahead of them right now.
4) TCU
The surprise team of the season showed that they can win a game when tough defense is the order of the day. Clinching a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game in the Dallas area before Thanksgiving is a massive deal. TCU is showing that as of now they belong in the top four.
5) Tennessee
Tennessee needs help to get in, which is a shame because they’re an elite team. They need Georgia to win a tight SEC title game over LSU. They need whoever wins The Game to dominate and eliminate the other team outright. They need USC to dominate and be the Pac-12 Champions while also losing to Notre Dame. And finally having Clemson or North Carolina have another loss and then win the ACC would help as well. The crazy thing is these are all very possible scenarios and the Vols probably only need two of them to happen to get in.
6) USC
USC controls their own destiny. If they win out and are 12-1, Pac-12 Champions and being compared to a 12-1 ACC Champion, an 11-1 Big Ten East runner-up, and an 11-1 Tennessee, the Trojans would and should get the nod. Lincoln Riley’s experience and Caleb Williams fantastic year would also be factor’s benefitting the Trojans. For them, it’s win and you’re in.
7) North Carolina
While they might need help to get into the top four, North Carolina is in a fantastic spot. They have one of the best players in football leading their offense and contending for the Heisman trophy. They control their own destiny about the ACC Championship. Their lone loss is looking better every week. They need some dominos to fall for them but they are doing their part of the work.
8) Clemson
Clemson is still in the hunt for all their usual goals and ambitions and control their fate about the ACC but may need a bit of help nationally. Still, with some of the struggles they’ve had, to be controlling their own ACC destiny is a tribute to how good they are as a team.
9) Coastal Carolina
There are only nine teams in college football with one loss or less in their record and that includes Coastal Carolina. They won tight without injured star quarterback Grayson McCall and their overall record says they’re the best Group of Five team in the country, though they need some chaos in the American Athletic Conference to make it to a New Year’s Six Bowl Game.
10) Penn State
Penn State is the best two-loss team in the country, even better than LSU. They defeated Auburn more soundly than the Tigers and their only two losses are to two of the top three teams in the country. They’re likely going to fly under the radar right into a 10-2 record and a New Year’s Six Bowl Game where they will be a tough opponent against whoever the matchup against.
11) LSU
The close loss to Arkansas who was without K.J. Jefferson helped Penn State jump them. The Tigers still have a chance to climb the rankings and maybe even an outside playoff shot if they can upset Georgia in Atlanta on December 3rd. Their schedule before then of Texas A&M and UAB doesn’t do them any favors though.
12) Washington
Washington may be sitting behind USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Utah in the Pac-12 standings but their big road win over the Ducks has them behind only the Trojans in the rankings for members of their conference. There chances at Pac-12 title and the Rose Bowl are slim but a Rose Bowl berth as an at-large is well within the realm of possibility for the Huskies.
13) Alabama
Bama is still Bama and they proved that by beating Ole Miss. Sadly for the Tide, their late season scheduling of an FCS opponent hurts them this year and so does their rival’s troubles. Beating Austin Peay and Auburn won’t turn to many heads but it should be enough to get Alabama into a New Year’s Six Bowl.
14) Ole Miss
Poor Lane Kiffin still is having trouble with his old boss, but then again, who doesn’t. If they beat their biggest rivals in Arkansas and Mississippi State the Rebels too should have a great shot at a New Year’s Six Bowl. Doing that for two years in a row would only help Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin to continue to build the Rebels into contenders.
15) UCLA
The Bruins loss to Arizona really hurt them. It eliminated them from playoff contention and made their shot at a Pac-12 Championship more difficult. UCLA can’t lose USC or Cal and if they do win out their reward is to tangle with an Oregon team that beat them by two touchdowns. Still, they control their own destiny in winning a conference title and a home game in the Rose Bowl.
16) Utah
Like all the other Pac-12 teams on this list the Utes control their own fate. Beat the Ducks and then the Buffaloes and they’ll have a shot at back-to-back conference championships and back-to-back Rose Bowl berths.
17) Oregon
Oregon’s eight game winning streak and shots at the playoffs are both over but the Pac-12 and Rose Bowl are still in sight. Bo Nix still has a shot, albeit long, at the Heisman. Those all would be pretty great for first-year head coach Dan Lanning.
18) UCF
Because of how good they and Cincinnati have been in out of the American Athletic Conference, UCF is the highest ranked Group of 5 team in the country right now (in the CFP rankings, not mine). With Navy and USF before the AAC title game the Knights can look forward to a rematch with either Cincinnati or Tulane to try and get to their third New Year’s Six game in the last six seasons.
19) Cincinnati
The Bearcats, like the Knights find themselves in familiar territory. They control their own destiny to win the AAC and get back to a New Year’s Six game. They have to beat Tulane to get a rematch with their AAC rival and future Big 12 foe UCF.
20) UTSA
Waiting behind UC and UCF if they slip up is an underrated Conference USA team, the UTSA Roadrunners. Owners of a seven game winning streak and 12 wins in 2021, UTSA is looking again to get to 12 wins and are in position to be the new Group of 5 team to challenge for that coveted New Year’s Six Bowl berth.
21) Notre Dame
The Irish are the best three-loss team in the country. Their wins over the divisional leaders of the ACC (Clemson and North Carolina) would almost make them de-facto champions of that conference if those standings were to hold at the end of the year. After Boston College this week they have a chance to close the year with a bang against rival USC.
22) Troy
The Sun Belt squad is 8-2 holds the lead in the West Division over instate foe South Alabama by their head-to-head victory. If the Trojans don’t stumble in their last two games, they’ll play conference favorite Coastal Carolina and hope for some Group of 5 chaos in front of them to get them into a big time bowl.
23)
The Jaguars two losses come by a combined five points. They were a field goal as time expired away from upsetting UCLA in Los Angeles and are a hard fought 10-6 game against Troy from leading their division in the Sun Belt. They need ULM and or Arkansas State to beat Troy to get the Jaguars to the Sun Belt title game.
24) Tulane
Tulane took a shot on the chin in their game against UCF, but with Cincinnati on the schedule, they can still get into the AAC title game and get another crack at the Knights, and a shot at a New Year’s Six Bowl.
25) Liberty
Liberty’s loss to a resurgent UConn really stings. After beating BYU and Arkansas the Flames had a let down game against a scrappy fellow independent in the UConn Huskies. With three games to go the Flames can still get to 11 wins in their final year of independence.
New Year’s Six Bowls Projections
Peach Bowl (Semi-Final) Georgia vs. USC
Lincoln Riley and USC would have a puncher’s chance against the Bulldogs but it would be like 2018 and 2019 when Riley’s Oklahoma teams had the firepower to give the SEC titans a game but in the end came up short.
Fiesta Bowl (Semi-Final) Ohio State vs. TCU
The Buckeyes and Horned Frogs faced off four years ago in Dallas and a rematch in Phoenix would be a good matchup. The narrative from 2014 when the Buckeyes jumped the Horned Frogs to get into the playoff would be talked about a lot. It would also be fantastic for the Big 12 to get a team not name Oklahoma or Texas into the playoffs as the Big 12 changes.
Cotton Bowl Tennessee vs. Oregon
Bo Nix would get one final crack at the SEC and Tennessee would have the chance to prove that they are back and here to stay by going 12-1. Hendon Hooker vs. Bo Nix would provide the Cotton Bowl with a headline stealing matchup and some fireworks.
Rose Bowl – Michigan vs. Washington
This would be a rematch of some good Rose Bowl’s of the 80’s and 90’s and would feature Michael Penix and Kalen DeBoer once again locking horns with a titan of the Big Ten. Michigan’s running game against Washington’s passing game would be a fun matchup of contrasting styles.
Orange Bowl – UCF vs. Alabama
While I am really high on Coastal Carolina, I think the CFP Committee is higher on UCF and UC and that the winner of their rematch will be the Group of 5 representative in the New Year’s Six. Seeing as UCF has already beat UC they’re the favorite and that would present the matchup fans wanted so badly after the 2017 season. The two teams that claimed national championships in 2017 would meet in the 2022 season’s Orange Bowl
Sugar Bowl – LSU vs. North Carolina
This Sugar Bowl matchup would feature two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in college football in Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. An appearance in this game after vying for their respective conference titles would be great for the programs of LSU and UNC.
Championship Game in L.A. – Georgia over Ohio State
Whether it’s Ohio State or Michigan, I like their chances in a first round match up with USC but then equally think Georgia would defeat either of them in the title game. Georgia has already beaten Michigan and the teams are essentially the same from last year. Georgia already beat a high powered offense with a star quarterback in Tennessee and would match up similarly with Ohio State.
Check out the official CFP Rankings here! And my previous weeks rankings below!
