With the conclusion of free agency and the draft, we can now look ahead to next season with more confidence about the outlook of most teams. Via over/under odds provided by BetMGM there appears to be some picks that stand out when looking at teams’ win totals for next season. Below is a more in-depth look at the teams that feel like they have a more certain future.
Indianapolis Colts Over/Under 8.5 Wins (Over +120)
The AFC is currently the deepest we have seen in a long time. Behind the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills, there is a pack of teams that are at the precipice of joining the AFC’s elite. Among those teams is the Indianapolis Colts, residents of a now hyper-competitive AFC South.
After a nine-win season under then 37-year-old rookie head coach Shane Steichen, the Colts seem primed to at least be able to replicate that performance if not exceed it in 2024. As an indication, the odds have shifted from +120 to +115 in just the last week since the initial odds went live. The return, and anticipated sophomore breakout, of Anthony Richardson along with the Colts’ free agency and draft moves have them in a position to win the division.
Arizona Cardinals Over/Under 6.5 Wins (Over -140)
It has been a disappointing last few seasons in Arizona. Following back-to-back years with four wins under two different coaches, the Cardinals seem primed to take a step forward rather than back. The Cardinals’ offense is going to have high-level playmakers at every single skill position and they are backed by defensive-minded boy genius coach, Jonathan Gannon.
The NFC is completely wide open in comparison to the AFC and while the Cardinals may not be in a position to challenge the 49ers in 2024 there are plenty of wild card spots that the Cardinals could find themselves in. The NFC is not good down the middle and 6.5 wins feels disrespectful even at -140.
Cleveland Browns Over/Under 8.5 Wins (Under -115)
I do not see it happening for the Browns next year. One of the best feel-good stories of last year, led by their bruising defense and rushing attack, plus, of course, Joe Flacco. It is not going to be easy for the Browns next season as they have the hardest schedule in the NFL.
Once again, the AFC is strong, and almost 40 percent of NFL playoff teams each year are made of teams that missed the year before. The Browns feel like a strong candidate to give up their spot to a team that missed last season such as the Jets, Bengals, or Chargers. The Browns have also made some questionable offseason moves including giving long-term security to unproven receiver Jerry Jeudy by the tune of three years, $52.5 million. The offense seems to have a ceiling that the defense will have to compensate for, again.
Los Angeles Rams Over/Under 8.5 Wins (Over -125)
As in 2021, I think the NFC West could once again have three playoff teams. The Rams have just completed a retool that has littered their roster with young talent on both offense and defense. Add a top-five coach and top-12 quarterback and you get a playoff team. This formula works to a high degree in the NFL regardless of how the game is evolving from era to era.
The Rams have put themselves in a spot to be competitive for the next few years without sacrificing all their draft capital as they did in years past. The front office was able to build through the draft for the first time and the results were instantly shown. Even without Aaron Donald the Rams should be able to compete for the playoffs this year.