Last year, the NFL rookies had a better year than most when multiple players started games and were NFL leaders. For example, 10 rookie quarterbacks started a game last year, breaking the record set in 2019 when there were nine.
And it wasn’t just the quarterbacks who had great seasons. Players like Sam LaPorta, Jalen Carter, and Jahmyr Gibbs also became household names for fans of both teams and the NFL.
But not every great rookie campaign leads to long-term success. There is a very real thing known as a “Sophomore Slump,” which means that a player takes a noticeable step back in their production. The main reasons include teams learning how to better scheme against them, getting too comfortable in the league, or sometimes something as simple as a lack of luck.
Here are three players who are, unfortunately, likely candidates to have the “Sophomore Slump.”
1 – Puka Nacua – WR, Los Angeles Rams
![3 NFL Players Looking to Avoid the 'Sophomore Slump', and 1 Player Who May Breakout 1 LA Rams - Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua](https://gridironheroics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Puka-Nacua-Cooper-Kupp-1024x768.webp)
Puka Nacua was the biggest surprise from the 2023 NFL Draft Class. Taken as the 20th WR and in the 5th round, nobody had any real expectations for Nacua during his rookie season. He was considered the third or fourth option coming into the season. However, he lucked out when Cooper Kupp got injured, moving Nacua up in the depth chart.
From there, he took full advantage and quickly became the top receiver on the team. Even when Cooper Kupp came back, Nacua continued to thrive. He ended up breaking the NFL Rookie record for receiving yards and receptions.
Why he will have a ‘Sophomore Slump’: There are three reasons Nacua may not see the same kind of success as last year.
- Towards the end of the season, the team wanted to get him the record. His targets went way up. He went from averaging about seven targets per game to about 9.5 in the last four games of the season. Without those extra targets at the end, Nacua may have ended up with about 100 less receiving yards. Still great and a small factor, but the surge at the end of the season left a strong impression on fans.
- Defenses never figured out scheming. Nobody expected Nacua to be WR1 coming into the season, and it showed that he averaged 125.3 yards per game in the first four games. After that, it seemed like teams figured out how to scheme against him (60 yards/game over the next seven games) until Kupp returned. When Kupp returned, defenses struggled to scheme against them again, and Nacua thrived. With a full offseason to prepare, defenses will be ready to scheme against both players.
- Huge plays were big for Nacua. Nacua is fast but isn’t the fastest player in the NFL. Despite this, he had receptions of 80, 70, and 41 yards. It’s a good season if a WR has one reception over 50 yards, let alone two over 70. If NFL history says anything, he will likely have fewer “huge plays:”.
2 – C.J. Stroud – QB, Houston Texans
![3 NFL Players Looking to Avoid the 'Sophomore Slump', and 1 Player Who May Breakout 2 CJ Stroud, NFL](https://gridironheroics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/USATSI_22045811_168400545_lowres.jpg)
C.J. Stroud had a great NFL season that ended with him winning the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and playing in the AFC Divisional Playoff Round. There is nothing to take away from what Stroud did, taking the Texans back to the NFL Playoffs, but he is facing a major issue; the expectations are now very high, and even if he plays well, he may not be able to match last year’s success.
This is where luck comes in.
Why he will have a ‘Sophomore Slump’: Last year, the Texans were given a pretty easy schedule regarding who they played and when they played their games. First, their division was pretty weak, with the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans all average at best. Aside from that, they played the Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Saints, Panthers, Falcons, and Jets, who all finished right around .500 or below. The only true tough games they played against teams well above .500 were the Ravens, Steelers, Buccaneers, and Browns. Four out of 17 games is a pretty easy schedule.
This year, the AFC South should be better (better be with Lawrence’s contract), and the Texans have to play six teams who won at least ten games last year.
So even if Stroud players are ‘better’ than last year, there is a very real scenario in which they miss the Playoffs.
3. Jordan Addison – WR, Minnesota Vikings
![3 NFL Players Looking to Avoid the 'Sophomore Slump', and 1 Player Who May Breakout 3 Minnesota Vikings](https://gridironheroics.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/USATSI_22171225_168400517_lowres-1024x682.jpg)
Jordan Addison certainly lived up to expectations last year, as he pulled in 70 catches for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns. Similar to Nacua, Addison benefited from the injury to Justin Jefferson. While some point to the QB carousel that the Vikings went through last year (four QBs took meaningful snaps) as being the main factor that held Addison back from a 1,000-yard receiving season, it also could be viewed as a factor that may have given him more opportunity.
Why he will have a ‘Sophomore Slump’: Normally, when new QBs are put into a game, they go after the more reliable receivers first, which would have been Addison and TE Hockenson.
Jefferson is back to 100% this year, but the quarterback situation is perhaps even worse than last year. Sam Darnold seems to have a limited ceiling, while J.J. McCarthy is unproven. At least last year, the Vikings had Kirk Cousins through eight games.
In other words, with a healthy Jefferson and an unproven quarterback, Addison becomes a prime candidate for a slump in year two.
Player to Breakout
![3 NFL Players Looking to Avoid the 'Sophomore Slump', and 1 Player Who May Breakout 4 Indianapolis Colts](https://gridironheroics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/AR15-1024x683.jpg)
Every year there also seem to be a few players who don’t really show out as rookies but come back stronger in their second year and become impact players their second year. The most obvious candidate for that this year is Anthony Richardson.
Last year, Richardson didn’t play particularly well in his first four games, but he was showing signs of getting more comfortable, winning two of his last three games and going to overtime against the Rams in the lone loss. If Richardson can get his completion percentage up to 65%, he could become viewed as a top-half QB in the league and lead the Colts back to the playoffs.
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