Will Rogers, who entered the transfer portal from Mississippi State and enrolled in Washington and re-entered the portal after Kalen DeBoer announced he’d be leaving for Alabama, has announced that he will actually be staying in Seattle next season.
Rogers, who was ranked as the No. 18th highest-ranked quarterback in the transfer portal, committed to Washington on December 15th and re-entered the portal on January 12th, the same day that DeBoer announced he’d be taking the Bama job.
The reason for coming back for Will Rogers is unclear. Perhaps he bought into the vision of Jedd Fisch, or maybe he had one other school, in particular, he was interested interested in who went with another option. The answer isn’t clear, but there are a few trends that are concerning for the future of the sport.
Is it All About the NIL?
If we go back in time a few years, here are the number of transfers and the number of players to withdraw from the portal.
- 2021: 798 Transfers, 2 Withdrawn (0.25%)
- 2022: 2,334 Transfers, 65 Withdrawn (2.78%)
- 2023: 2,727 Transfers, 50 Withdrawn (1.48%)
- 2024 (So Far): 2,259 Transfers, 94 Withdrawn (4.16%)
First, as a side note, the transfer portal is ridiculous this year. We haven’t even hit the second transfer window and the portal is less than 500 players away from passing last year. It isn’t unrealistic to believe that the final number will surpass 3,500 players. Considering there are only about 16,000 FBS players, that would make up more than one in every five players.
Going back to players withdrawing their names, 4.16% is ridiculously high, and that number is only going up. A week ago, the number was hovering around 3.20% showing a higher proportion of players are coming back to their original school than even a few weeks ago.
A big reason is NIL. Technically, players can’t talk to other schools until they enter the transfer portal. Once they enter, other schools can reach out and pitch their NIL deals to them. For some players, they are entering the portal, hearing the pitches and either not being offered as much they hoped, or not enough to draw them away from their current school.
Coming Back is Becoming an Acceptable Decision
Imagine if you were at your job, and decided to put in your two week notice. You clean out your desk, tell all of your coworkers that you are leaving, and that you are going to go work somewhere that will pay better and be a better fit for your needs.
A few weeks pass and those opportunities never come. You go back to your job and say “Actually, I looked around and realized this is my best opportunity. Can I come back?”
Yeah, awkward.
The same appears to be happening with players withdrawing from the transfer portal. Imagine playing for a team and spending hours together with your team and deciding to leave them to enter the transfer portal. Even though, it may be in the player’s best interest, it is still awkward to walk away from the team. Now imagine doing that, realizing there isn’t a better option and having to walk back to the same locker room and hoping everyone is cool with them coming back.
Again, very awkward.
Yet, it is happening so much now it is becoming common practice. One in every 25 players entering is now coming back. The narrative is changing from being upset a player would ever leave, to being hopeful they will be coming back.
If the number this year pushes past 5%, don’t be shocked if in 2025 the number surpasses 10% as it will become common practice for just about everyone to enter the portal “just to see what is out there”.
Will Rogers May Be Different
Not every player is entering the portal just looking for NIL deals. And perhaps, Will Rogers is an example of this. He hasn’t said why re-entered the portal and later decided to withdraw. One desire a few players, such as Kedon Slovis for BYU last year, have expressed is finding the right system, regardless of NIL. For them, they see a potential NFL future as more valuable in the long-term than picking up the biggest check in the short term.
Again, Will Rogers hasn’t publicly said his reasonings for re-entering and withdrawing, but with one year of eligibility, perhaps fitting in Jedd Fisch’s system is what he feels is best.
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