If you look at any SEC Football schedule, it is heavyweight after heavyweight opponent for every team. Looking at Arkansas’ schedule, for example, this is what they will have to go through:
- Arkansas Pinebluff
- Oklahoma State
- UAB
- Auburn
- Texas A&M
- Tennessee
- LSU
- Mississippi State
- Ole Miss
- Texas
- Lousiana Tech
- Missouri
You may see that schedule and think it’s crazy tough, yet believe it or not, the Razorbacks have arguably the easiest schedule in the SEC, avoiding Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma, among others. Yet unless they improve seriously in 2024, they can pencil in losses against Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas, LSU, and Missouri. Barring an upset, Arkansas can only lose one game against Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Miss State, assuming Arkansas can beat their other non-conference games.
Arkansas could be a decent team next year, with the talent to go 7-5 in any other conference, but in the SEC, it could mean 5-7, missing a bowl game, and likely firing Sam Pittman.
SEC Could Become the Current Big 10
The Big 10 is a conference of either good or bad teams. There isn’t much in between. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Iowa are considered not only some of the best teams in the conference but also the nation, while teams like Rutgers, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, and Maryland are considered to be generally at the bottom of the league and college football.
Every once in a while, one of these teams has a great season, but even for them, it means typically going 8-4 at best and then regressing to sub-.500 the following season. Why does this happen?
There could be multiple factors to this, but the short answer is that keeping coaches and recruiting high-level players to a team with a ceiling of eight wins is tough. This will worsen as the Playoff expands because players will be drawn to Big 12 or ACC teams that now have much easier access to the Playoff. Throw in Washington, Oregon, UCLA, and USC, and even more teams will struggle to get coaches and players who want to play in a league where they play five to six of the top 15 teams in the nation every year.
Can the Bottom of the SEC Keep Up?
The SEC is in danger of having an issue like the Big 10. How will recruits for Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Miss State, and others feel about going into a season knowing they can all but pencil in four to five losses? Fanbases may know that their team may not be Bama, but they don’t care, they expect wins. Building a culture and a team without three to four years of coaching staff getting their players and staff in place is nearly impossible.
However, in today’s game, fanbases and donors don’t have the patience to allow a team to go through three consecutive losing seasons. In other words, teams like Arkansas are in danger of being a 4/5 win team 75% of the time with an occasional 6-6 or 7-5 season. If teams like Clemson and Florida State come to the conference, another team or two will probably fall into the same issue. The most likely team would be South Carolina, but other teams, including Kentucky, Missouri, and Ole Miss (once Kiffin leaves), could also be victims of becoming bottom dwellers in the league.
Despite Bottom Dwelling Teams, the SEC is Unlikely to Kick Anyone Out And Why That’s a Problem
There is a belief that the SEC may kick out teams like Arkansas and Vanderbilt to make room for better teams to join the league, but the top teams won’t want that. Georgia doesn’t need to add another two juggernaut opponents to its schedule to prove they belong in the Playoffs. Georgia invites a Vanderbilt or Mississippi State to break up games against Texas and Alabama, even if it may not bring in the same TV ratings or ticket sales.
But what if teams like Arkansas and Mississippi State decide enough is enough? At some point, winning is more important than money, and it may get to that point. If that happens, it could be the eventual downfall of the SEC as we know it. If only a bunch of the top teams are left, they will, in many ways, beat up each other and cause their rankings to fall.
That happened this past year in the Big 12. The league was so deep that they played their way out of many good bowl games. What ended up happening was they ended up playing in bowl games they were overqualified to play in, and it showed in their record in bowl games, including a 5-2 record amongst teams who will be in the Big 12 next year.
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