The NFL landscape is going under a massive change for the 2023 season. Aaron Rodgers gave his intention to play for the New York Jets next season. All that is left is for the front offices to work on the compensation. While Rodgers to the Jets is exciting for New York, it brings a lot of big questions.
#1: How Good Is The New York Jets Coaching Staff?
Robert Saleh was hired in 2021 after spending time as the defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. While Saleh is a defensive-minded coach, the two years of offensive production have been abysmal. In the two years as head coach the Jets have ranked 28th and 29th in points and 26th and 25th in yards. Obviously, that should change with Rodgers under center but are we convinced that Saleh can coach a top offense?
The answer to the previous question might be the offensive coordinator. However, new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett comes with questions of his own. He never called plays in Green Bay and to say calling plays in Denver was a disaster is a gross understatement. Rodgers loves Hackett which should help but if Hackett cannot be an elite play caller, this could go sideways very quickly.
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#2: Can Aaron Rodgers Return To MVP Form?
In the years 2020 and 2021, Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs. There is no denying that he was great. Here’s the stat breakdown for the Packers QB.
2020: 70.7 completion percentage, 4,299 yards, 48 TDs, 5 Ints, 121.5 passer rating, 79.8 QBR
2021: 68.9 completion percentage, 4,115 yards, 37 TDs, 4 Ints, 111.9 passer rating, 69.1 QBR
It is worth noting that in those two years, Rodgers led the league in passer rating and QBR. Those are great seasons. However, let’s compare that to the seasons around it. Here’s a look at the stats for the 2018, 2019, and 2022 seasons.
2018: 62.3 completion percentage, 4,442 yards, 25 TDs, 2 Ints, 97.6 passer rating, 58.0 QBR
2019: 62.0 completion percentage, 4,002 yards, 26 TDs, 4 Ints, 95.4 passer rating, 52.5 QBR
2022: 64.6 completion percentage, 3.695 yards, 26 TDs, 12 Ints, 91.1 passer rating, 39.3 QBR
In three out of the last five seasons, Rodgers has not been up to an MVP level. Which Rodgers will be Jets see? Will it be the 2020-21 version? If not, the Jets could be looking at a middle-of-the-road quarterback. While this is still an upgrade, it may not propel the Jets to a Super Bowl.
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#3: Can Rodgers Build Rapport With Receivers?
This goes a little bit with the previous question but I want to focus on. Aaron Rodgers does very well with high-level receivers that he knows. He and Davante Adams put up monster stats because Rodgers could throw these amazing balls and Adams would find a way to catch them. With a receiving corp he doesn’t trust, the story is different. Rodgers hates turning the ball over which is a good thing but also causes him to run into problems.
Last season, Rodgers did not have a rapport with his receivers. In order to keep his interceptions down, he simply didn’t make the high-risk high reward throws. He made a lot of deep throws along the sidelines because they were less likely to get picked off but they were low-percentage throws. Can Rodgers trust Garrett Wilson right away? What about other receivers they sign?
#4: Will The Defense Be As Dominant In 2023?
This is a non-Aaron Rodgers question. Defense is notoriously volatile from year to year. Interceptions, fumbles, and sacks are somewhat random. Obviously, certain players and units are more consistent but overall it is hard to have a dominant defense from year to year. For example, maybe one year you end up playing many offensive lines that have injuries making sacks easier. Maybe you play more rookie quarterbacks that are more prone to turnovers. The variance is high. This is not to say that the Jets cannot be a dominant defense but if they aren’t, the offense will need to be that much better.
#5: Can The Jets Compete In A Tough AFC?
If the New York Jets were in the NFC, I would say they would be a favorite to make at least the championship game (seriously, go look at the quarterbacks in the NFC right now). However, the Jets are in the AFC. Just in their own division, they have to go through Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, and a Patriots team coached by one of the greats. This is not to mention Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, and other talented quarterbacks fighting for a playoff spot.
On paper right now, if everyone is healthy, you could make an argument that the Jets are the third-best team in the division. Even if they win the division, they will likely have to go through Kansas City and at least one other AFC powerhouse. This is not to say that Aaron Rodgers and the Jets cannot do this but man that will be tough.
Overall, the Jets getting Aaron Rodgers will be a good thing but it isn’t a slam dunk. Here’s what I do know for the 2023 season. I am hoping that the dominoes fall just right and we have a Packers-Jets Super Bowl. A long shot, I know, but hey I can dream.
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