Saturday football is finally back on the schedule, and with it, a couple of excellent, high-stakes matchups between AFC playoff teams. First on the docket is a potential playoff preview between the visiting Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Texans have already clinched the AFC South crown for the second season in a row, but a win combined with a Pittsburgh Steelers loss could help them climb into the third seed down the stretch.
The Chiefs have likewise clinched their division, an achievement that has almost been taken for granted by fans in recent years. Nothing but the first seed in the AFC and a bye week will do for Patrick Mahomes and company, making each of the final three weeks of football incredibly important for Kansas City. This will be a high-level contest between two fun teams, and although they do not always play like it, both teams are loaded with offensive talent, making this an excellent game to look for some advantageous player props.
1) Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-106)
Mahomes, despite his obvious talent, has massively underproduced statistically this season. There are several reasons to believe a turnaround is coming in the touchdown category this Saturday. The Texans are a solid defense by every metric, including against the pass, allowing only 197 yards per game through the air, the sixth-best figure in the league. However, they’ve allowed 27 passing touchdowns, a number that places them in a four-way tie for most passing scores allowed in the NFL.
This is in stark contrast to their run defense, as the Texans have only allowed seven rushing scores on the year, tied for the lowest in the league. This will be a competitive game, and Mahomes will almost certainly be forced to get the ball in the end zone through the air to secure points on the board for the Chiefs.
2) Isiah Pacheco Under 52.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
The aforementioned Houston run defense has been equally good at limiting rushing yardage and scores. The Texans allow an average of 105 rush yards per game, and have held opposing backs to under four yards per carry in four of their last five games, including a fantastic performance against the Detroit Lions run game. Over their last two games, Houston held De’Von Achane and Travis Etienne to a combined 87 yards rushing on 3.4 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Pacheco has been underwhelming at best since his return from injury on Black Friday. Inefficiency and explosiveness have each been issues, as the Rutgers University product has failed to display the angry running style that characterized his game prior to his leg injury.
Pacheco has failed to hit this mark in two of his three games back from injury, and his ineffectiveness has led to an increased number of snaps heading Kareem Hunt‘s way. The two backs split Kansas City’s carries evenly last week, and with third down-back Samaje Perine in the mix as well, Pacheco seems to have been relegated to a true timeshare at the position. That, combined with a poor matchup, is enough reason to take the under on the Chiefs starting running back here.
3) Ka’imi Fairbairn Over 6.5 Total Kicking Points (-140)
This line is a little bit juiced, but it’s for good reason. Fairbairn hasn’t scored less than seven kicking points since late September, and there’s no reason to think this will be the game he breaks his streak. The Chiefs have been a solid red zone defense while the Texans rank just below average in converting red zone trips to touchdowns. Houston’s offense is good enough to move the ball into scoring range and the Kansas City defense is good enough to prevent them from punching it in each and every time.
Making matters even better is the fact that the weather forecast is clean, a rarity for a late-December game in Arrowhead Stadium. Fairbairn has been incredibly reliable on his end, missing only six kicks all season while displaying a range that makes him one of the best kickers in the NFL. The -140 price is a little steep, but it’s worth it thanks to Fairbairn’s consistency.
