As we near Training Camp, it’s about that time to start talking odds to win divisions. The NFC South is way up in the air. In terms of NFC South odds, it’s one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. Each team will start 2023 with a different starting quarterback than they did in 2022.
The Buccaneers are looking to win back-to-back-to-back division titles for the first time in franchise history (after winning back-to-back for the first time). Before that, the Saints rode a four-year stretch of titles.
Who Wins the NFC South in 2023?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+700)
Last NFC South title: 2022
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Ever had to replace the greatest quarterback in history? The Patriots attempted to replace Tom Brady with Mac Jones and, well, they’re likely finishing at the bottom of their division. The Bucs could very well be vying to the Connor Williams sweepstakes but Baker Mayfield is going to do his best to avoid such a fate.
He still has Mike Evans as his WR1, so there’s still hope for a few wins.
Anything can happen with a stout defense. Tampa Bay has the likes of Vita Vea, Lavonte David, Shaq Barrett, Antoine Winfield, Jr., and new rookie, Calijah Kancey. The Bucs posted a top-10 defense in terms of yards allowed last year. Without the services of the GOAT, Tampa Bay has an uphill battle to compete.
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Carolina Panthers (+330)
Last NFC South title: 2015
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With the second-longest odds, the Panthers enter the year with a rookie quarterback at the helm for the first time since Cam Newton’s 2011 season. After making a massive trade to move up to the number-one pick, Carolina found its next franchise quarterback in Bryce Young.
Young is a former Heisman Trophy winner and prolific passer at Alabama. While his stature may warrant questions, he’s still a fantastic quarterback and well worth the first-overall pick.
In addition to the draft, Carolina was active in free agency. They brought in D.J. Chark, Adam Theilen, Hayden Hurst, and Miles Sanders on offense. On defense, they added Vonn Bell and Xavier Woods but Brian Burns, one of their own picks from 2019, will continue to be the leader.
It’s a new day with Frank Reich leading the team. The rebuild could be swift if Young is able to play like a number-one pick.
Atlanta Falcons (+220)
Last NFC South title: 2016
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After moving on from Matt Ryan, it looked like the Falcons were about to tank for one of the top quarterbacks in the 2023 class. Fast-forward to today and the Falcons’ third-round pick from 2022 is set to lead the way and Atlanta is ready to compete for the division.
There were plenty of nay-sayers surrounding the Desmond Ridder pick but his playmaking ability and leadership wowed coaches enough to give him his opportunity to lead the franchise. As a rookie, Ridder opened the year behind Marcus Mariota. After a a 5-8 record, the reins were handed over with four games remaining. In total, Ridder finished the year with 708 yards and two touchdowns without any interceptions.
To go with Drake London and Kyle Pitts, the Falcons drafted running back Bijan Robinson with the eight-overall pick. Debates about the validity of spending premium draft capital for a running back aside, Robinson has the talent to take over as a rookie. He’s regarded as one of, if not the best running back prospect in a long time.
Defensively, the Falcons are low-key stacked. Calais Campbell and Grady Jarrett are legit on the interior. And that secondary? A.J. Terrell, Jeff Okudah (when/if healthy), and Jesse Bates will be difficult to crack. Don’t forget rookies like Clark Phillips and Zach Harrison who could step in and compete right away.
The Falcons are my bet to win the division but they’re going into the year with the second-best odds.
New Orleans Saints (+135)
Last NFC South title: 2020
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When Drew Brees and Sean Peyton left the team, it looked like there was going to be a rebuild in New Orleans. They were in cap Hell and just did not look good, overall. Now, they’re the favorite to take the division.
Derek Carr comes to town to provide stability after Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston struggled last year. He has gone through his career as a criminally underrated quarterback, albeit one who has never won a playoff game. However, he could have the toys to succeed.
If Michael Thomas comes back healthy, this receiving corps could lead the team to the postseason. Add him with Rashid Shaheed, who really came on last year, and Chris Olave, Carr only needs to be average. Olave showed that he was special on a few occasions with his crisp route-running and sure hands.
The running back situation is interesting. Alvin Kamara just might be facing a hefty suspension, so rookie back, Kendre Miller will fight with Jamaal Williams for touches.
Defensively, the Saints will have to lean on their secondary again. Last year, they finished with the second-best passing defense by allowing just 184.4 yards per game. With a secondary of Marshon Lattimore, Bradley Roby, Tyrann Mathieu, and Marcus Maye, they’ll have to step up again.