The Jacksonville Jaguars open their training camp on July 24. We’ve passed some time talking about who is the GOAT in Jags franchise history. Now, what better way to pass the time until training camp than by seeing what the sportsbooks have set the Jags odds at for the 2022 season.
Pre-training camp odds provide a good baseline for the upcoming season and an excellent way to see if a team under-or overachieves. Also, it gives the books a chance to flex their skill of foresight.
Much like a Hollywood studio unnecessarily splitting a movie into two parts, I’m breaking this into a two-part series. We’ll look at the team odds and the Jags Week 1 spread in Part I. Part II will focus on the Jags player props.
Let’s get to it!
All odds were taken from DraftKings.
Jaguars Super Bowl odds: +13000
+13000 odds aren’t the best. However, The Jags no longer sport the worst odds. They have the ninth worst odds to hoist the Lombardi. Progress! The Panthers (+13000), Giants (+13000), Jets (+13000), Lions (+15000), Seahawks (+15000), Falcons (+20000) and Texans (+25000) have the same or worse odds as the Jags.
The Jags odds are the third worst among the AFC, which tracks. The AFC is brutally tough this season. Making the playoffs will be difficult enough in the AFC, let alone surviving the playoffs and winning the whole thing.
The play: Taking these big odds is fun, but it’s not a money maker. If you’re feeling brave and/or foolish, a quarter unit, at most, can be laid on this bet.
Jags Over/Under 6.5 wins: Over +110, Under -130
Before you laugh, here’s where some money could be made. The over here is really enticing. The Jags need to get to seven wins for this to cash.
Last season they were 3-14 with Urban Meyer coaching most of the season. Meyer was the worst coach in the modern era of the NFL, and the Jags still won three games. One of which is a still inexplicable 9-6 win over Buffalo.
Taking the Jags on the over, you’re betting on a few things. First, you believe the team will be better because Doug Pederson is the head coach. Pederson brings stability and professionalism that is light years ahead of whatever Meyer brought to the table. Pederson will also have a game plan and scheme for each opponent. Pederson’s addition is worth a win.
Using a baseline of three wins and adding Pederson’s win, that puts us at four wins.
Second, the Jags roster is improved. Yes, the Jags overpaid some of their free agents (and reset the entire WR market), but that doesn’t mean the roster isn’t better. In terms of talent, this team is better than the ’21 squad. That’s worth a win.
We’re up to five wins.
Third, Trevor Lawrence will be better. Much of Lawrence’s rookie season was a waste. Yet, once Meyer was out the door, Lawrence began to take strides forward in his game. If Lawrence consistently plays as he did against the Colts in Week 17 last season, that’s worth another win.
Sitting at six wins.
Fourth and final point is the Jags schedule. They have a tough draw matching up with the AFC West. You figure the Chargers and Chiefs games are Ls. The Broncos and Raiders lean L too but could be upset specials. The Broncos game is in London, and the Jags always
play weird games across the pond. The Raiders game is in Jacksonville, but it’s around that time in the season when we start seeing upsets.
It won’t be a surprise if the Jags get swept by the AFC West. So getting any win against that division is a bonus.
Other than the Colts, the AFC South isn’t tough. The Texans are the league’s premier dumpster fire, and the Titans are the most obvious candidate for regression this season. A split with the Titans and sweep of the Texans is doable for the Jags.
For their NFC opponents, the Jags are pitted against the NFC East. There’s a lot of love for Philly this offseason, but they feel like a team due to take a step back. (Of their nine wins last season, only one was against a team with a winning record.) The Cowboys will be a problem. Yes, they’re overhyped, but they have a talented team.
The other NFC East teams, the Commanders and Giants, should be games the Jags can win.
Since the Jags were last in the AFC South last season, their remaining three games are against other last-place finishers. The Lions (Cool), Jets (Cool) and Baltimore (Not great).
The schedule is worth another win for the Jags, bringing their total to seven wins.
The play: The Jags schedule is daunting in stretches but manageable. Then with the coaching, Lawrence’s development and roster improvements, getting to seven wins is within reach for the Jags. With the +110 odds, laying two units feels like the right play.
Jags odds to win AFC South: +700
If the Jags were to win the AFC South, +700 feels too cheap for what would be the biggest surprise of the season. Yet, when compared to other division odds, +700 isn’t bad.
The Colts are the heavy favorite in the AFC South at -125; the Titans are +170 and the Texans +3000. Only the Bucs (-300) and Packers (-190) have better odds of winning their division.
If the Jags took the AFC South, you wouldn’t need a bunch of things to go right. First and foremost, the Jags must be better and consistently compete for all four quarters.
With a competitive Jags team, they’d have to deal with a tanking Texans, the regression favorite Titans
and the Colts. The Colts are a good team, but they’re also depending on a
37-year-old Matt Ryan. This is the best team Ryan has had since Super Bowl XLI, but the Colts offensive line isn’t as strong as it once was. Depth along the O-line and behind Ryan (Nick Foles is QB2) are shaky for the Colts.
The play: Putting a unit on the Jags wouldn’t hurt. The Colts probably cruise to a division title, but all you’d need to be in the hunt is for the Colts to underachieve and the Jags to overachieve.
The Jags stage of elimination: To miss the playoffs -650, to lose in the wildcard round +425, lose in the divisional round +1100, to lose in the conference championship +5000, to lose in the Super Bowl, +10000 and to win the Super Bowl +13000.
Here’s a fun future that’s under the “Team Futures” tab on DK. You’re betting when the Jags season comes to an end. Taking them to miss the playoffs is a waste of money at -650. The remaining options range from intriguing to lighting your money on fire.
The two intriguing options are to “lose in the wildcard round” at +425 and “lose in the divisional round” at +1100. If the Jags sneak in as a wildcard team, they’re doing so as the No. 7 seed. That pits them against the Bills, Chiefs and Ravens. The Jags are going one-and-done against those teams, and you can cash at +425. Not the best of odds, but it can help you recoup from all the holiday spending when it cashes.
If the Jags win the AFC South, they’re likely going in as the No. 4-seed and hosting a playoff game. The AFC South is the weakest AFC division. That matches them against the top wildcard team, which could be the Chargers or Colts. They are not ideal matchups, but we
know the Colts record in Jacksonville. For the Chargers, it’s the Chargers. It would be perfectly within the Chargers history to be the scariest wildcard team on the board, only to lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the wildcard round.
Going beyond the divisional round is donating money to the book. Getting to the AFC title game and Super Bowl, the Jags have to beat two of three teams, the Bills, Chiefs and Ravens. Then must beat one of the following from the NFC team, Bucs, Packers, Ram. That’s not even a long shot. It’s delusional.
The play: Laying a unit or two on the wildcard and a unit on the divisional round exits is a reasonable homerun shot. Outside of those two, you’re wasting money.
Week 1: Jags at Washington Commanders (-4), Jags ML +155
Let’s end this column with a gimme. And maybe it’s playing with fire calling this a gimme, but I’m going to be optimistic.
The Jags open the NFL season as four-point dogs, which feels like an easy win. Washington feels like they’re on the brink of total chaos. Let me reword that, Washington feels like they’re on the verge of total chaos, more so than they usually are. This is saying something because this is a Dan Snyder team we’re talking about, and they’re playing the Jags.
Off-field distractions can totally mess with a team. It’d be one thing if the Commanders were a stable franchise who could weather these storms, but they’re not. Snyder’s been ducking a congressional subpoena (Due to Washington’s workplace culture and claims of sexual misconduct) for most of the summer.
Snyder has also got to deal with a dilapidated stadium and NFL owners wanting him gone because he has allegedly been stealing from them. Then there’s the season and the stresses that come with losing games.
It just feels like the Commanders are a team ready to implode. What better way for that implosion to get underway than a Week 1 loss to the Jags?
As for actual football stuff, the Commanders traded for QB Carson Wentz. The same Carson Wentz, who as a Colt completely fell apart against the Jags in a 26-11 loss in Week 18. The Colts were double-digit favorites, and the loss cost them a spot in the playoffs.
The play: These odds might come down a little as we get closer to Week 1, might as well take advantage. I’d put a unit on the Jags ML and three units on the Jags to cover.