Geno Smith turned heads for the Seattle Seahawks in 2022. People wrote off Smith, however, the quarterback never wrote them back en route to winning Comeback Player of the Year in the NFL and cashing in on a new contract.
The Seahawks signal caller had a renaissance and played football in a way the viewing public has never seen him play before.
“Seattle is going to tank this year with terrible quarterback play, and end up with a top-5 pick in the draft,” was a sentiment held by many heading into last season.
Geno Smith had a wonderful run
No one expected Smith, of all players, to lead the lowly Seahawks to the playoffs. He was not supposed to play better, and have a better record than Russell Wilson.
However, that is why we play the games ladies and gentlemen. Wonderful stories like Smith’s 2022 campaign happen all the time in the NFL.
Some last a couple of games, and some are long periods. The beauty is that these stories happen, and they are great players to cheer for.
These stories do not always have happy endings.
Geno Smith has lights shining on him once more
As mentioned previously, Smith did not have high expectations last year. He played with house money and won.
The quarterback got paid this offseason, as he should have, to the tune of $105 million over three years, following his phenomenal 2022. However, Smith has expectations now.
For the six seasons leading up to 2022, he started just five games and appeared in 15. Smith had zero pressure on him last season, and now the lights are back on the signal caller, and brighter than ever, for the first time since his sophomore season in the league.
In that season, Smith had as many passing touchdowns as he had interceptions, just over 2,500 passing yards and completed under 60% of his passes as a New York Jet.
This is the last time anyone has seen Smith play a season under pressure and with some expectations. Based on his 2014 campaign, things do not look great for a repeat performance of his great 2022 comeback.
However, another reason for a suspected Smith downfall exists. That reason, similar to the last, is based on history.
Geno Smith enters the season in a volatile position
In 2022, Smith finished as the fifth-best quarterback in fantasy football. As discussed in the quarterback volatility episode, that exact placement has been disastrous for a quarterback’s chances of repeating a top performance in the following season.
As a matter of fact, over the last decade, the signal caller who finished in the fifth spot at the end of the fantasy season fell out of the top-12 quarterbacks 90% of the time in the following season.
As a result, there is reason to be doubtful of Smith repeating his wondrous 2022. The five spot has meant doom for each quarterback since 2016.
Carson Wentz’s production plummeted after his probable MVP season was cut short in 2017.
Andrew Luck retired following his 2018 Comeback Player of the Year campaign.
Jameis Winston went to New Orleans and has yet to start a majority of the season with the Saints following his 2019 season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Deshaun Watson sat out the 2021 season and was involved with some less-than-pleasant allegations, resulting in him missing most of 2022 as well.
And Aaron Rodgers lost everything when he decided to stay with the Green Bay Packers and is contemplating retirement following his massive extension.
Each of these players looked promising the year after they finished as the fifth-best quarterback in fantasy football. However, none of them capitalized on their potential.
In reality, one could say each of these guys fell off a cliff in terms of their fantasy football production after finishing in the five spot. As a matter of fact, one could say that finishing fifth in the quarterback rankings derailed the careers of each of these players.
The same fate of these once-great quarterbacks could follow Smith in 2023. As a result, he finds himself as a regression candidate.
