Now that we know that every other offensive position is volatile, there is one more to look at: The captain of an offense. Today, we look at quarterback volatility in fantasy football. Considering they throw to wide receivers, who have a high amount of volatility, one may assume the same for the leader of the offense.
How much volatility is there at the quarterback position compared to anywhere else on a fantasy football roster?
That question as well as the safest quarterbacks to draft this upcoming season will hopefully be answered today.
However, who were the top quarterbacks of 2022?
The top-12 quarterbacks:
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In order of finish, the top 12 were: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert and Tom Brady.
It looks like another who’s who of some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today, but, as learned from other positions, volatility exists and can put a damper on a season if the wrong quarterback gets drafted.
Similar to the other positions discussed so far, while looking at quarterback volatility, we take to the last 10 seasons of fantasy football for a data set to show just how volatile the position is.
Let’s navigate the volatility of a position one last time in hopes of landing a safe bet to repeat as a quarterback one (QB1)
Quarterback volatility:
1: 2/10
2: 6/10
3: 4/10
4: 3/10
5: 9/10
6: 2/10
7: 6/10
8: 3/10
9: 2/10
10: 4/10
11: 4/10
12: 6/10
The volatility of the quarterback position is vastly different from that of any other. Largely, the outlook for QB1s looks positive. At 42.5%, quarterback is easily the least volatile position in fantasy football.
The first observation is negative as opposed to the usual positive standing out like a sore thumb.
The least safe quarterback from volatility:
While the position undergoes the least amount of change out of any fantasy position, volatility still gets its men.
In particular, the man who finishes fifth dropped almost every time over the last decade. At a 90% rate of change, Smith faces a massive uphill battle to return to this spot next season.
The safest quarterbacks:
While the outlook for Smith isn’t great, that of Mahomes, Burrow, Fields, Cousins and Jones look phenomenal. Each of these men stares down an, at worst, 30% volatility rate.
The leaders of the pack are Mahomes, Fields and Jones with a 20% turnover rate over the last decade. These men look to be the safest draft picks from a statistical perspective.
The coin-flip quarterbacks:
Meanwhile, everyone else faces basically coin-flip odds to repeat a QB1 performance next season. While some may have better chances than others, statistically, the chances average out to 50% for Allen, Hurts, Lawrence, Goff and Herbert.
The 12 spot stands at a 60% rate of change. However, that figures to produce change come next season unless Brady comes out of retirement again.
Overall, quarterback is the least volatile position in fantasy football by quite a bit. But don’t get too comfortable with the QB1s of this season. There is an average of five quarterbacks who drop out of the top ranks every year.
A look at what is next:
The volatility part of this series showed that there are plenty of people who fall out of the top-ranked players on a season-to-season basis. These sets will be referenced in the future.
Moving forward, a discussion will take place about some of the players most likely to fall out of the top ranks at any position. This will be known as the “Regression Candidates” series.
“Draft Tips” will return closer to the start of the draft season. However, a baseline needed to be set for how much volatility exists in fantasy football, thus these were the first few articles of the season.
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