Each week in the 2022 regular season, GridIrion Heroics FCS writer Brian McLaughlin gave his FCS football playoffs outlook heading into the next week’s action. BMac now gives his final take on what tomorrow’s FCS playoff bracket will look like when the 24-team field is announced on ESPNU at 12:30 p.m.
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The weekly FCS football postseason predictions will always be pinned ASAP at the top of my Twitter acct (@BrianMacWriter), and will always be shared immediately with our good buddies — FCS Fans Nation — on the best message board in the level, their Facebook page.
The final postseason prognostication for 2022 is below. Enjoy!
FCS FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS EXPLANATION
THE SEEDS
This part wasn’t really that difficult.
Let’s face it, this group? They’re all pretty much locks. Now, I could see some arguing on behalf of Incarnate Word — but the problem is? Even though UIW has an FBS win, it didn’t even win the Southland Conference at 10-1. When it’s all said and done (which it is now), how can I possibly make UIW a seed and not Southeastern Louisiana — who beat UIW and won the conference on Thursday night.
You can’t, and you shouldn’t. And how can I elevate Southeastern Louisiana into a seeding situation when it lost to a sub-.500 Texas A&M Commerce team?
I can’t. And I won’t. But both clearly will make the playoffs. My opinion at this point is that neither deserves a seed.
To me? The seeding picture is as clear-cut as it has been in years. The Big Sky gets three (Sac St, Montana St., and Weber State), MVFC gets two (SDSU and NDSU), and the CAA, SoCon, and Patriot League all with one apiece are locked into the top eight and can go home for Turkey Day if they want (with the first-round bye). How did it all work out? See the chart below.
Last thing — I’ve had people question Weber State being a seed. Well, who are you going to put in there, folks? Weber State beat an FBS by 28 points (Utah State), and its two losses are to the two clear-cut top four Big Sky seeds who will inevitably be ranked above the Wildcats — but that Weber State lost to by a total of seven points (to Sacramento State and Montana State).
Think most of the playoff field could stay within seven total points of two of the top four seeds? I don’t.
I’m telling you — Weber State will be a seed.
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CONFERENCE AUTOMATIC BIDS
SEMO won the OVC on a coin flip over UT Martin, which considering the situation was really the correct outcome. So — thank you Mr. Coin for doing the right thing.
The OVC, because of teams shifting around, wasn’t able to match up SEMO and UT Martin, and go figure — they both went undefeated in the league. SEMO won Saturday night’s coin flip after both teams won once again to finish their regular seasons unblemished in OVC play. So be it, but it’s too bad for UT Martin that the Skyhawks didn’t get their shot to play SEMO.
And the ASUN-WAC thingy also ended up the way it honestly should have. Eastern Kentucky had the best resume among these eligible teams. EKU beat a bowl-eligible FBS (Bowling Green in 7 OTs), while also knocking off the OVC champions (SEMO) in non-conference play. So that strange concoction of a “conference automatic bid” worked out perfectly.
There’s really no more controversy beyond that. The 24-team NCAA FCS playoffs are composed of 11 conference champions that have automatic bids and 13 at-large bid selections, with the pairings to be announced on Nov. 20 (12:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU).
THESE ARE THE SCHOOLS THAT GRABBED AUTO BIDS
ASUN-WAC: Eastern Kentucky (22nd overall FCS playoff berth)
BIG SKY: Sacramento State (third straight year as Big Sky champs)
BIG SOUTH: Gardner-Webb (first-ever playoff bid)
CAA: William & Mary (11th all-time bid and first since 2015)
MVFC: South Dakota State (11th consecutive playoff bid)
NEC: Saint Francis (second all-time playoff bid after 2016)
OVC: Southeast Missouri (first playoff bid since 2019 and fourth overall)
PATRIOT: Holy Cross (fourth consecutive playoff bid and sixth overall)
PIONEER: Davidson (third consecutive playoff bid)
SOCON: Samford (first playoff bid since 2017 and sixth overall)
SOUTHLAND: Southeastern Louisiana (third playoff bid in last four seasons and fifth overall)
THE AT-LARGE UNIVERSE
Oh boy … here’s where the craziness begins, and trust me … it doesn’t end. The FCS committee? Right now (about 10 pm ET on Saturday, Nov. 19)? The committee is guzzling coffee and data, not necessarily in that order. And you know what? Pity them. Don’t scream at them.
Do you want to take the biggest knot of yarn on the planet and be told you must unravel it by 12:30 pm ET the next day? Yeah, not enviable. So have some compassion — but let’s please ask them to make sure they don’t make any glaring errors. But there is certainly some “splitting hairs” situations here.
The biggest question I get asked about the at-large picture around this time of year? Does my favorite team, TEAM A, have a better shot than hated rival TEAM B from right up the street?
The problem is, awesome FCS fan? Is that your favorite TEAM A isn’t competing just against that school you hate up the street — your favorite team is competing against about 10 teams, and you’re asking me to compare yours to just one other who you loathe? What ya don’t realize is? … that school you never heard of from California (say, you’re in the south or New England?) is more of a threat than your rival is to take away your playoff spot. You have to re-wire the brain and begin to think like there — there are more dynamics to consider.
You have to get your mind wrapped around that. This is never a two-dimensional argument. Hell, it’s like seven or eight-dimensional. But again … at least we have a playoff system, right?
Below is the at-large debate — spelled out the best I can put it with data — and the final list is below that:
ALSO: Technically these schools are “at large” but there’s no question they’re in the bracket: Montana State, NDSU, Weber State, Furman, Incarnate Word, Elon, and Richmond. So put those in your bracket, in pen. The rest of the head-scratching is below.
The at-large ‘bubble” teams below are ranked in order of where I think they’ll fall in the bubble picture. UNH avoided a lot of good teams in the CAA (schedule rotation) but did finish 7-1 in the CAA. Delaware has the poker chip of beating an FBS (Navy). North Dakota played a tough sked and went 7-3 vs. the FCS, with some key wins, and YSU is right behind UND. Fordham is 9-2, knocked off three CAA teams, came within 1 point on the road at the best Holy Cross team (11-0) since the leather-helmet days, and was beating an FBS team (Ohio U.) with under a minute remaining. And UC Davis? I give the Aggies the nod over two 7-4 Big Sky teams — Idaho and Montana.
Why the nod? because UCD beat Idaho on the road by 18 and Idaho beat Montana on the road by 7. I could care less about the 6-5 record — UCD played a brutal schedule, and schedule rotation was not kind to this school in the Big Sky. UCD is 5-1 since Oct. 1, played SDSU “for fun” and lost by 2 in Brookings, and came within a minute of knocking off No. 1 Sacramento State tonight. Do we want the best teams in the playoffs? Or do we want window dressing?
I realize the FCS committee may leave out the Aggies because there are a slew of 7-4s left below — but my take? It would be wrong.
| TEAM | REC | FCS | STRK | LST5 | CONF. DNP | BIG WINS |
| New Hamp. | 8-3 | 8-2 | W2 | 4-1 | W&M & Delaw | Elon (vs) by 18, Rhody (vs) 3 |
| Delaware | 7-4 | 6-3+ | L2 | 2-3 | UNH & Maine | FBS, Rhody (away) 21, |
| North Dakota | 7-4 | 7-3 | L1 | 3-2 | IllSt & WIU | YSU (away) by 5, Abilene by 3 |
| Youngstown | 7-4 | 7-3 | W1 | 4-1 | SDSU & UNI | SIU, Illinois St., Dayton |
| Fordham | 9-2 | 9-1 | W3 | 4-1 | none | 3 CAAs |
| UC Davis | 6-5 | 6-4 | L1 | 4-1 | Montana & UWU | Idaho (away) by 18 |
| Rhode Island | 7-4 | 7-3 | W1 | 3-2 | Rich & Nova | Elon (vs) by 7 |
| Idaho | 7-4 | 7-2 | W1 | 3-2 | MontSt & Weber | Montana (away) by 7 |
| Montana | 7-4 | 7-4 | L1 | 2-3 | UCD and NAU | none |
| Chattanooga | 7-4 | 7-3 | L2 | 2-3 | none | Mercer (vs) by 20 |
| Mercer | 7-4 | 7-3 | L2 | 2-3 | none | GWU by 31 |
| Austin Peay | 7-4 | 6-2 | L1 | 3-2 | SFA & Abilene | East Ky by 11 |
| Northern Iowa | 6-5 | 6-4 | W1 | 4-1 | NDSU and YSU | SIU by 1 |
| Florida A&M | 9-2 | 9-1 | W9 | 5-0 | none | very weak sked (Alab St is top) |
Questions? Debate? Hit BMac up on Twitter (@BrianMacWriter) and let’s put up our dukes, metaphorically speaking.
REMEMBER: The FCS selection committee ignores all FBS losses and all lower-division wins in its playoff consideration. So on the chart below, you’ll see the overall team record and the FCS record. Most of these teams have played FBS opponents this year — and eight have won against FBS teams (which is indicated in the chart below). BEATING an FBS team is a big poker chip come playoff time, and could be the ultimate tiebreaker when it’s not obvious any other way.
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FCS FOOTBALL POSTSEASON PREDICTION – THE FINAL VERSION
THE VOTE: Note that the FCS column denotes record vs. FCS (no FBS, no D2). That is what the playoff committee will look at — unless the FCS school has an FBS win or a lower-division loss). The final announcement will come at 12:30 pm ET on ESPNU on Sunday (Nov. 20).
| SEED | AS OF NOV 19 | CONF. | REC | FCS | STRK |
| 1 | SACRAMENTO ST. (*) | BIG SKY | 11-0 | 10-0+ | W9 |
| 2 | SDSU (*) | MVFC | 10-1 | 10-0 | W10 |
| 3 | Montana State | BIG SKY | 10-1 | 10-0 | W8 |
| 4 | NDSU | MVFC | 9-2 | 9-1 | W4 |
| 5 | WILLIAM & MARY (*) | CAA | 10-1 | 9-1+ | W8 |
| 6 | Weber State | BIG SKY | 9-2 | 7-2+ | W2 |
| 7 | SAMFORD (*) | SOCON | 10-1 | 10-0 | W9 |
| 8 | HOLY CROSS (*) | PATRIOT | 11-0 | 10-0+ | W11 |
| ALMOST SEEDS | |||||
| ALMOST 1 | Furman | SOCON | 9-2 | 8-1 | W6 |
| ALMOST 2 | SE LOUISIANA (*) | SOUTHLAND | 8-3 | 8-1 | W5 |
| ALMOST 3 | Incarnate Word | SOUTHLAND | 10-1 | 8-1+ | W7 |
| CONF. AUTO BIDS | |||||
| ASUN-WAC | EAST. KENTUCKY (*) | ASUN-WAC | 7-4 | 6-3+ | W1 |
| BIG SOUTH | GARDNER-WEBB (*) | BIG SOUTH | 6-5 | 5-2 | W4 |
| NEC | ST. FRANCIS PA (*) | NEC | 9-2 | 9-1 | W9 |
| OVC | SEMO (*) | OVC | 9-2 | 9-1 | W3 |
| PIONEER | DAVIDSON (*) | PIONEER | 8-3 | 6-3 | W4 |
| AT-LARGE BERTHS | ALPHAB. | ||||
| AT LARGE | Delaware | CAA | 7-4 | 6-3+ | L2 |
| AT LARGE | Elon | CAA | 8-3 | 8-2 | W3 |
| AT LARGE | New Hampshire | CAA | 8-3 | 8-2 | W2 |
| AT LARGE | North Dakota | MVFC | 7-4 | 7-3 | L1 |
| AT LARGE | Richmond | CAA | 8-3 | 8-2 | L1 |
| LAST THREE IN | |||||
| LAST 3 | Youngstown State | MVFC | 7-4 | 7-3 | W1 |
| LAST 3 | Fordham | PATRIOT | 9-2 | 9-1 | W3 |
| LAST 3 | UC Davis | BIG SKY | 6-5 | 6-4 | L1 |
WHO JUST MISSED AN AT-LARGE BERTH? See chart above
UPDATE NOV. 19: If a school is bolded and has an (*) next to it? It has clinched an FCS Playoff berth with its conference’s automatic bid.
ALSO: A (+) indicates the team has beaten a Group of Five Conference FBS team (EX: Weber State’s big win over Utah State), and a (&) indicates the team has beaten a Power Five Conference FBS team (EX: Southern Illinois’ win over the Big Ten’s Northwestern). FBS wins are key “poker chips” come postseason selection time.
Certain programs are ineligible for the FCS football postseason yet are playing in one of the playoff-bound conferences (EXAMPLES: Pioneer League and NEC leaders St. Thomas (MN) and Merrimack respectively, as well as FBS transitional teams and WAC and ASUN leaders like Sam Houston and Jacksonville State). Also, the ASUN-WAC combination will award one automatic bid on behalf of two conferences that are still in the forming stages — and you can read more about how that unique setup works at NCAA.com, because it is confusing.
NOTE: Brian McLaughlin has been a voter on the STATS/PERFORM FCS football poll since 2016, and has written FCS postseason predictions since the same year. He also votes on the FCS postseason awards — the Walter Payton Award (top offensive player), the Buck Buchanan Award (top defensive player), the Jerry Rice Award (the top freshman in FCS football), and the Eddie Robinson Award (top coach that year).
