The highly anticipated AFC Championship Game between the Chiefs and Ravens has been talked about and analyzed at a level we’ve never seen before. But what about the under-the-radar storylines that aren’t being talked about in the AFC Championship? Sometimes, the games are decided by more than just which quarterback plays better or which team has the better coach, a lot of times, you’ve got to peel back a few layers to see what really made the difference, particularly in a game like this which features two of the greatest quarterbacks, defenses, and coaches in the league.
Here are three storylines to watch out for.
What Happens on 4th Down?
Neither of these teams tends to go for it on 4th down. The Ravens finished second to last in the entire NFL in 4th down attempts with only 13 all season. The Chiefs weren’t much more risky with only 20 attempts (tied for 24th in the league).
This may come as surprising since both teams have mobile quarterbacks that would seem to be a threat on 4th down. In the Playoffs, teams tend to be a bit more aggressive, so both teams may attempt to go for it more than once in this game. If they do, watch for the team that converts at a higher rate to win the game.
On a similar note, since neither of these teams go for it much on 4th down, watch to see if any of these teams try to set up 4th down attempts on 3rd down. It’s become a common trend on 3rd and long to try to get a good chunk to set up a 4th down attempt. Both of these teams have taken the approach of all-or-nothing on 3rd and long. Let’s see if that changes on Sunday.
Turnover Margin in AFC Championship Game
The Ravens are tied for second in the league at +0.7 turnover margin per game. The Chiefs are ranked 28th at -0.6. Putting these numbers together would suggest that the Ravens would have a +1.3 turnover margin in this game.
It may actually be worse.
The Chiefs all season have been one of the worst teams giving away the ball and one of the worst at getting turnovers. The Ravens have been decent (10th) in turnovers, but have been elite at getting turnovers (1.7 per game).
Adding these two together would suggest the Ravens should have a +2 margin in the AFC Championship game. In college, that kind of margin is soemtimes overcome. In the NFL, that is a tall task. especially against a team like the Ravens who like to run the clock out with the run game.
Touchbacks vs Inside the 20 in Punting
Tommy Townsend, the Chiefs punter had 28 punts that could have landed inside the 20 yard line this past year, and seven of them ended in a touchback. The Ravens punter, Jordan Stout had 34 punts that could have landed inside the 20 and only five touchbacks.
A team’s likliehood to have a successful drive goes up significantly when the offense starts at the 20-yard line as opposed in the shadow of their own endzone. Often, teams will almost completely give up on a drive in hopes of just not giving up a safety.
If Kansas City is able to down a few punts inside the ten inside of settling for touchbacks, or if the Ravens get more touchbacks (which would honestly be just one), it could be an advantage that ultimately ends up being the difference in the AFC Championship.
Get More NFL Content
For more of the biggest storylines of College Football, the AFC Championship, or the NFL, click here or follow me on Twitter/X.