The Chicago Bears have some major decisions to make in the coming weeks. Blessed with the overall no. 1 pick in this year’s NFL draft for the second straight year (thanks to last year’s dealing of their no. 1 pick to the Carolina Panthers), the team will have first dibs on the best of the best when it comes to rookie talent.
Most believe that means selecting USC Heisman award-winning quarterback Caleb Williams with that no. 1 pick. Others believe the Bears may trade away that no. 1 draft spot once again, bringing in another haul of talent in return while building around current quarterback Justin Fields.
Chicago Bears Unlikely No. 1 Draft Pick?
NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Frelund believes that Chicago may take another course of action. According to her unique analytical model, she sees the Bears keeping their no. 1 slot, but bypassing all of the top available quarterbacks (Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels) as well as wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., to select offensive tackle Joe Alt from Notre Dame.
Per her mock draft for NFL.com:
“In this theoretical exercise, the Bears keep Justin Fields and pick this high-floor (aka lowered risk) LT prospect, who has experience but is also young (20 years old) with a ton of upside. Alt just passes receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. in immediate impact for the Bears’ O-line, which allowed their QBs to be pressured at the highest rate in the league last season (45.1 percent). This helps to show the value of the Bears’ first-round equity, which will allow them to move all over the board if they want to.”
Shocking The Entire NFL On Draft Day?
Picking Alt over Williams, Maye, or Harrison is a beyond bold call. Only four offensive linemen have been drafted first overall since the modern era of football began in 1967. And, as the league has morphed into a more QB-centric entity, five of the last six no. 1 picks have been quarterbacks. Caleb Williams seems to be the most likely top draft pick of this current crop of young players, with all of the pedigree and buzz usually revolving around a top pick.
Alt is no doubt an outstanding player and the Bears most definitely could use the offensive line help, but, despite being projected as en early first-round pick, it’s not out of the question that he could still be on the board when Chicago makes their second first-round selection (no. 9 overall). If Alt isn’t there, they would surely have first dibs on the second best O-line prospect available– perhaps Olu Fashanu from Penn State or Taliese Fuaga from Oregon State.
For the record, here’s Frelund’s stated criteria for her projections, per NFL.com:
I take the best available information about free agency, which right now is admittedly not much more than what we know about player contracts, to predict players’ market value.
I then check free agents’ projected market value against the anticipated salary-cap space for each team.
Finally, I add potential free agents or drafted players to different teams and identify which individuals increase teams’ projected win total the most. (My player model leverages historical pre-draft player data to forecast NFL performance.)
If the Bears leapfrog the biggest names available in this April’s draft (and forego a trade for their top pick) to grab Joey Alt, Cynthia Frelund will look like a verifiable NFL draft genius.
The Bears, meanwhile, might take some major flak from fans and media for going with an offensive lineman over a potential franchise quarterback or the load of draft capital they could receive for a pre-draft deal.
Everyone will just have to wait and see what’s in the collective mind of Chicago’s front office.