Brandon Aiyuk | Regression Candidates Episode 8

Brandon Aiyuk improved greatly in 2022 compared to his previous campaign. However, there is reason to doubt his success continues into next season.

Aiyuk finished as the 15th-best wide receiver in fantasy football last year. Clearly, that is incredible and that finish cannot be taken away from him.

Although, there were circumstances that led to his success that was out of the receiver’s control.

The chief of them was the amalgamation of injuries sustained by the 49ers last season.

Injuries to playmakers benefitted Brandon Aiyuk

In 2022, the 49ers dealt with injuries to the running back room, wide receiver room and tight end room.

Superstar tight end George Kittle missed the first couple of games in 2022. During these games, Aiyuk had 11 targets and seven catches for 103 yards.

Prior to the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell was the presumed starting running back for the team. However, Mitchell got hurt and missed six games before McCaffrey was fully integrated into the offense.

Aiyuk thrived in this time, given a run-heavy team was down its running back.

Additionally, Deebo Samuel missed time down the stretch of the season.

Samuel missed three of the final four games. During this time, Aiyuk had 16 catches for over 200 yards as the de facto top wide receiver in San Francisco.

With McCaffrey, Kittle and Samuel in the lineup together, Aiyuk was a solid player but never had a stand-out game.

However, there is one more key injury yet to be discussed.

How will Trey Lance’s return impact Brandon Aiyuk?

Trey Lance started in the opening game for the 49ers last season. After that game, Lance broke his ankle early in Week 2 and missed the remainder of the season.

After an injury to the free-agency bound Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Purdy took over at quarterback for San Francisco.

However, Purdy got injured in the NFC title game and has yet to undergo surgery to repair his UCL due to a surplus of swelling.

It does not seem as if Purdy will return in time for the 49ers to start him. Therefore, Lance is the likely starter for the squad again.

In his one full game as a starter in 2022, Lance targeted Aiyuk just three times. Jauan Jennings had more targets than Aiyuk with six.

This is not just a one-time deal either, Lance started a pair of games in 2021 also. In these games, Aiyuk struggled to produce at the rate of a top-15 fantasy football wide receiver.

7 of Trey Lance’s 18 pass attempts went to Deebo Samuel, good for a 38.9% target share

Brandon Aiyuk didn’t see a single target from Lance

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) October 3, 2021

In this three-game sample size, the outlook for Aiyuk heading into next season does not look amazing. As a matter of fact, the outlook is downright uninspiring due to no fault of Aiyuk’s.

He is a very good wide receiver; however, Aiyuk is not a leading target getter when Lance is the starting quarterback. Additionally, injury aided Aiyuk’s top-15 finish last season.

He was a beneficiary of circumstances that helped him thrive in 2022. He and Cole Kmet, from the last episode, share a similar story in that regard.

The end of each is on the same page as well. Both players appear on the regression candidates list because players should come back healthy, resulting in a business-as-usual outlook.