Just when it seemed like college football conference expansion and realignment were ending, there are now reports of the entire system being overthrown again. The difference this time is that we aren’t talking about two or three teams moving from one conference to another, we are talking about the league becoming a super conference system with 48 teams.
Regardless of how things end up under this format, a few different models have been thrown other. However, all of them are flawed and either favor current conferences or geographic areas. There is no perfect format, and no matter what, just like the NCAA Basketball Tourney, teams will be left on the outside.
Rather than trying to break down and giving a set of 48 teams that would definitely make the super conference, I’m going to follow the Joe Lunardi Bracketology model of going conference to conference and sharing which teams are locks, should be in, on the bubble, and out.
Under this format, all teams are on the table. Yes, there may be some legal issues kicking Vanderbilt out of the SEC, but under this model, none of that will be considered.
ACC
Locks: Florida State, Clemson *Notre Dame*
Should be in: North Carolina, Miami
Bubble: Virginia, Lousivillle, Stanford, Cal
Out: NC State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Wake Forest, SMU
The ACC is very top heavy with four teams that are either locks or should be in, plus Notre Dame. After that, everything becomes a mystery. Virginia is a nice geographic location and has a long history, while Stanford and Cal add more west coast options.
It’s important to remember that TV networks love a good 10:00 PM ET kickoff and with only a handful of schools outs west, that inventory can become scarce, particularly during BYE weeks and when teams are on the road. Stanford and Cal would almost certainly solidify at least two or three late night games along the west coast when combined with the more western Big 12 schools.
This can also be the reason many ACC schools get left out. There is no shortage of early kickoff windows and so the super conference may look at certain ACC teams and say “yes they are better than (enter team), but they will never make TV, so let’s take this other team.”
Big 12
Locks: None
Should be in: Kansas, TCU, Utah, BYU, Arizona, Colorado
Bubble: Arizona State, Oklahoma State, UCF, Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas State
Out: Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech
The Big 12 is the biggest mystery conference of them all. The issue with the Big 12 is that they don’t have any huge names in the conference. The good news is that geographically, it feels like the new super conference would have to pick up some teams. Otherwise, there wouldn’t be any teams from essentially Oklahoma to California or Nebraska to Oregon.
Kansas feels like a good middle-of-the-country team that is gaining respect. TCU would add another solid Texas school, while Utah, BYU, Arizona, and Colorado would give four solid teams in the Mountain time zone. While many rivalries are being ignored with this new league buildup, BYU vs Utah is a rivalry that has the potential to be the biggest rivalry game west of Oklahoma. It’s hard to see any league wanting to get rid of that again.
Big 10
Locks: Ohio State, Michigan, USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa
Should be in: Minnesota
Bubble: Illinois, Northwestern, Maryland
Out: Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers
The Big 10 is certainly the conference of has or has-nots. The Big 10 is very good at the top and and pretty bad towards the bottom. The other thing about the Big 10 is geographically, they get a lot of locks. They would lock up all the West Coast schools, the Northeast, and some of the Midwest. Even though some teams considered a lock have struggled recently, their brand and influence would keep them very safe in a 48-team super conference.
SEC
Locks: Alabama, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Should be in: South Carolina, Ole Miss, Auburn
Bubble: Arkansas, Mississippi State, Missouri
Out: Vanderbilt
The thing about the SEC is that the conference is considered the best in college football. While there are certainly some bottom-dwellers in the league, it is still tough to see any team other than Vanderbilt from being at least seriously considered. Even Arkansas who has really struggled would still be attractive as they are known for a great fanbase, and in some ways always feel like a sleeping giant
G5 Conferences
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Bubble: Washington State, Oregon State, San Diego State
Out: Everyone else
The G5 conferences have lost their best teams in recent years to P4 conferences (BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, SMU, and Houston). Because of that, there aren’t a lot of teams that would be considered for a 48-team super conference. The three teams who made the bubble on this list would have an argument primarily because of their location. The west is still somewhat thin as far as teams go, giving a team like Oregon State a small advantage over a sub-par P4 on the east cost.
Honestly, I’d be shocked if any of these three did get picked up, but if any G5 teams did, they’d be out of this list.
Total Numbers for 48 Team College Football Super Conference
After breaking down the numbers of the total locks that should be in teams, it leaves room for 11 additional teams. Unfortunately, on this list there 19 schools fighting for those 11 spots, leaving eight teams left without a spot in the top league. When it comes down to that, it really may come down to rivalries, location, and most importantly TV viewership.
Again, the college football P4 teams who are left completely out would have plenty of legal battles and arguments not to be left out; however, teams like Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Indiana, and Cincinnati wouldn’t have much ground to stand on when comparing themselves to the teams who are in ahead of them.
TOTAL LOCKS: 23
SHOULD BE IN: 14
BUBBLE: 19
OUT: EVERYONE ELSE
48 or 64 teams in the new super league? If it's 64 and your team is currently in a P4 conference, you're likely ok, but if it's 48 then a lot of #ACC and #Big12 teams will be left out.
Currently the #SEC and #B1G are at 34 teams combined, so only 14 teams get added and those… pic.twitter.com/aKeKRlUELf
— GREG SWAIM SHOW (@GSwaim) March 4, 2024
Talked to @colecubelic this morning about how the drastic changes to college football we think are far away are probably much closer.
Then I took a crack at a 48-team Super League. Part of it makes me sad, but I’d definitely watch the hell out of it.https://t.co/rxhmqY3GRz pic.twitter.com/z8BKJkwHsD
— Andy Staples (@Andy_Staples) March 4, 2024