FanDuel, considered one of the most dependable and used sports betting sites, has released its Big 12 early win projections, and there are quite a few surprises. Next year, the Big 12 is moving to 16 teams with the additions of Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State while losing Texas and Oklahoma.
Here are the projected wins of each team:
- 9.5 Wins: Kansas State, Utah
- 8.5 Wins: Arizona, Kansas, Texas Tech, UCF
- 7.5 Wins: Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU
- 6.5 Wins: West Virginia
- 5.5 Wins: Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado
- 4.5 Wins: Arizona State, BYU, Houston
Teams Suprisigingly Low
There are a few teams who seem a bit low on these rankings. The most obvious of these is Oklahoma State. By the projections, the Cowboys are expected to finish somewhere in the middle of the league likely. This seems really odd since Oklahoma State finished as the runner-up in the conference two of the last three seasons and is returning Ollie Gordon III and Alan Bowman.
Another team that seems a bit low is BYU, who finished last season 5-7, but had a really good chance to beat both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State late in the season behind Jake Retzlaff, who seemed to figure out the pace of Big 12 play at the end of the season. For BYU, it feels like next year should be a slight upgrade from 2023, and without playing Texas and Oklahoma, hitting at least five wins seems more likely than not.
Teams That Feel Too High
Putting Utah at 9.5 wins seems like depending on Cam Rising being back to his 100% self. The Utes lost a lot of production on both sides of the ball after 2023, and if Rising returns to his old form, 10 wins seem possible, but still, everything needs to fall into place.
Baylor always feels like a huge mystery, which may be why they fall at 5.5, but considering they went 3-9 and they have to play Utah again in their non-conference, 5.5 wins seems like a bit high. It also doesn’t help that their recruiting and transfer portal classes haven’t been great, leaving some to wonder if this will be Dave Aranda’s last year in Waco.
Teams That Feel Just Right
UCF at 8.5 feels like a pretty good spot. The Knights were a six-win team last year, and they are loading up in the transfer portal and recruiting. They brought in KJ Jefferson, who struggled at Arkansas but will also not be facing any defenses like Alabama or Georiga. UCF’s schedule also fairs well, with them only having to travel west once while hosting three teams from the west.
Another team that feels about right is Colorado. As crazy as it is to get a good read on Colorado, 5.5 wins feels like a perfect betting point. The Buffaloes feel like they easily could be a nine-win team or a two-win team, so why not split it in the middle and go with a 5.5? With Coach Prime and his squad, this is a blind throw at a dart board.
Big 12 History Says This Could Get Interesting
The Big 12 is known for being the most chaotic conference in college football. Last year, with three weeks remaining in the season, there were seven teams who had a real shot at making the Big 12 Championship Game, including West Virginia who was projected to finish last in the conference.
In other words, take one of the bottom teams and put them at the top, one from the top and put them at the bottom, and then put all the other teams in any other combination, and you’ve probably got what the standing will end up actually being.
We have college football win totals for 2024 on FanDuel. Here’s the Big 12:
K-State, Utah: 9.5
Arizona, KU, TTU, UCF: 8.5
ISU, OSU, TCU: 7.5
Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado: 5.5
Arizona St, BYU, Houston: 4.5
— Tyler Dreiling (@TylerDreiling) February 10, 2024
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