Analyzing The Blockbuster Aaron Rodgers Trade Between The Jets And Packers

The Aaron Rodgers trade saga is finally over. It was reported today that the Green Bay Packers and the New York Jets have finally worked out the terms of a deal. As with any trade, the question is who won? Here is my analysis of the trade for both sides.

Trade compensation, per sources:

Jets get:
🏈Aaron Rodgers, pick No. 15, a 2023 5th-rd pick (No. 170).

Packers get:
🏈Pick No. 13, a 2023 2nd-rd pick (No. 42), a 6th-rd pick (No. 207), a conditional 2024 2nd-rd pick that becomes a 1st if Rodgers plays 65 percent of the plays. pic.twitter.com/Q2vUMfyZGH

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 24, 2023

Parameters Of The Aaron Rodgers Trade

Before we analyze it is important to know the parameters of the trade.

Jets get:

Aaron Rodgers, pick no. 15, 2023 fifth-round pick (no. 170)

Packers get:

Pick no. 13, 2023 second-round pick (no. 42), 2023 sixth-round pick (no. 207), a conditional 2024 second-round pick that becomes a first if Rodgers plays 65% of plays.

Let’s break it down from each side.

New York Jets

The Jets got away with not having to give up a first-rounder this year in the Aaron Rodgers trade. Yes, there was a swap of picks but moving back from 13 to 15 is the price of doing business. Likely, this will not affect their draft that much. The second-round pick (42) was a bonus pick from trading Elijah Moore and picking up a fifth-round pick is nice for day three or for small trade-ups. A big part of this trade is the conditional pick.

The 2024 conditional pick will likely be a first-round pick. If the Jets want to be Super Bowl contenders they need Rodgers to play way more than 65% of the snaps. Is this too much? Only time will tell. If the Jets are going to be a contender, they likely have given up a pick somewhere in the 20s. This isn’t catastrophic if it goes to the Packers next year.

Green Bay Packers

There is no downside that I see for the Packers in the Aaron Rodgers trade. Early indication from betting sites in Canada and the US have not tilted heavily either way. The Packers get a second-round pick this year giving them four picks in the top 100. Having to give back a fifth-round pick is nothing. Day three picks are hit-and-miss anyway. Similarly, a sixth-round pick coming to them is nice but nothing major. The conditional pick is very exciting for the Packers. Worst case scenario the pick is a second-round pick which is still fairly premium. There is a strong chance that they get an additional first out of it and this gives them maximum flexibility for next year’s draft.

The Aaron Rodgers trade seems beneficial for both teams. Neither team mortgaged the farm but also each got something of real value. As with any trade, only time will tell if this works out for one, both, or neither teams.

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