Tis the season for yearly predictions but how many of them are actually realistic and not subject to wishful thinking or pessimism from those already protecting themselves from future emotional damage? Let’s cut to the chase. I can tell you with confidence that the Giants will win anywhere from two to twelve games in 2022 and that is as realistically accurate of a prediction as it gets because neither I, the beat reporters nor even you have any real idea what is going to happen this year.
Pro football is as great as it is because of its unpredictability. Things happen every day of the year that affect the multitude of variables that sway a team’s destiny. It doesn’t matter how intricate one’s statistical analysis is, professional football still exist more in the world of curses and lucky charms than it does of hard predictable science. With that said, one can still reasonably guess how their dumpster fire or established playoff team will do, but the Giants are neither. The Giants are an enigma.
There is an abundance of caution if not deep pessimism radiating for the media when it comes to the state of the Giants which seems more based on overcompensating for the unjustified optimism prior to the 2021 season, than is does on observing the actual situation at hand.
Your teachers might say “I don’t know,” is not an answer, in this case it is.
What do we actually know about Daniel Jones?
It sounds crazy, but after three seasons we still do not know what the Giants have in Daniel Jones. He did not enter into a situation similar to a Montana, Brady or Rogers. No, his experience more likens to those of Vinny Testaverde and David Carr who probably felt fortunate to make it through a season with only a minor case of PTSD. He rarely makes it to three Mississippi in the pocket and when he does, he hesitates seemingly to be in disbelief, wondering if the defensive end had finally broken his neck and he was having an outer body experience.
No quarterback in the league is performing well behind a line that was suspect to begin with before injuries mounted. Remember, Testaverde had some very good seasons later in his career leaving fans to wonder what could have been if he had not been used as a human sacrifice earlier on. Jones himself has been little more than a lamb chosen for the slaughter.
What do we really know about the skill position?
If the QB is out of rhythm then the receivers are going to be out of rhythm, that is, if they are even on the field. Jones didn’t have his full compliment of starting skill position players for even four quarters last season. Never the less, you have first round pick, a second-round pick, the 2019 leader in touch down receptions and prior to injury, one of the better slot receivers in the game.
The receiving group isn’t exactly bereft of talent and neither is the running back position led by Saquon Barkley and no matter how much you hate his draft position or how certain you are of further injuries, he is dangerous. So dangerous that he managed to even score from time to time behind a line that would have given even Barry Sander fits.
What do we really know about the offensive line?
Yes, again that line, the source of all misery. But it is not the same line. It is anchored by Andrew Thomas from Alabama University who the molehill to mountain media wanted to brand as a bust after the first ten games. Ten games in which he played against five out of the top six teams in sacks that year, two of them twice with the other three games being the Bears, 49’er and Cowboys. That isn’t baptism by fire but trial by deep fryer.
Some fans were happy for him to get an accelerated lesson on the professional level while the folks on the TV networks were already lighting the pyre to roast general manager David Gettleman alive. Last year Thomas gave up only two sacks with a pressure percentage of 3.68%, which is good enough for 14th in the league and he did so with less than stellar play from those playing next to him. Nor did he receive much help from the tight end position which hopefully they upgraded by drafting blocking first tight end Daniel Bellinger from San Diego State.
Thomas is also now book-ended by another top ten draft pick, while the middle of the line has been filled in with seasoned veterans. None of them are superstars and they shouldn’t be for a team can only afford to allocate so much money to the offensive line. They only need to be serviceable with the toughness and experience to bring the young tackles along and it will result in a significant upgrade from the last few season. Any improvement will ripple throughout the entire team’s performance including the defense.
What do we really know about out defense?
The Giants defense did not give up many points in the first quarter in fact the were ranked 6th in points given up in the 1st. Then 30th, 19th and 21st in the next three respective quarters because they were gassed. Their butts barely made it to the bench before they were called back into the game because the offense and its imaginary line went three and out again and again and again.
If you can’t run the ball or at least get a few first downs, your defense is going to wear down fast and you get the blowouts Giants fans had to witness several times last year. The defense had a scheme that sat back and prolonged plays as oppose to Wink Martindale’s traditionally attacking defense. A scheme which rumor has it uses a lot of bodies which will hopefully prevent the utter exhaustion we witnessed last year.
What do we really know about out defensive line?
The defensive line features Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence whom fans have been waiting to become the terror we hope the physical specimen could be. Yet he may be more effective as he moves to nose tackle freeing up Williams who has had double digit sack totals in the past. Though that is not expected in Wink’s defense which spreads the opportunities around. The rest of the down line is primarily composed of veteran roll players that will be rotating in, but this is not a bottom tier defensive line in any sense.
What do we really know about our linebackers?
Meanwhile the linebacker corps is led by Martinez who ranked 1st, 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd in total tackles from 2017-2020 before going down with an injury early last year. He likely will partner up with the Giant’s most relevant “Mr. Irrelevant” Tae Crowder who filled in at middle line-backer admirably after Martinez’s injury. Crowder will be pushed by a few rookies and some second and third year players but at the very least what the last few rough years has given the Giants is decent depth at linebacker. The system does not require every down linebackers and can make use of these more one dimensional backups.
Now on the edge we have second year, second round pick Azeez Ojulari who now holds the Giant rookie record for sacks at eight. Will fifth overall pick Kayvon Thibodeaux of Oregon break that record? You bet your ass he is going to try as he plays the opposite side of the field.
Only the true blues may know these names but do not be surprised if either Quincy Roche and/ or Elerson Smith make a significant impact. The front seven on paper is big on questions but also big on potential, so where does that leave us besides a state of uncertainty?
What do we really know about the secondary?
The secondary is the new panic button for fans and media alike, led by injury prone Adore Jackson while second year Aaron Robinson is expected to be the number two corner. He had a limited but solid career at Alabama and the University of Central Florida where he developed a reputation for his man coverage, a need in Wink Martindale’s system. He was also projected to go in the second round so it isn’t as if he is a seventh round pick from Guam Poly-Tech that is being thrown into a starting line up. Robinson is like the rest of the secondary, young players in their first three years drafted in rounds 3 & 4.
A closer look at the secondary
If you take completion percentage to mean anything, Jackson gave up 52.1% of the balls thrown his way which was better than the highly regarded Trevon Diggs of Dallas and Xavien Howard of Miami. While fans mourn the loss of Bradberry (61.7%) and Logan Ryan (67.3%) they will be replaced by Robinson (63.3%) and Julian Love (71.1%) but this time, more likely than not those two are going to be able to concentrate on playing a single position as compared to last year. Nickle back Darnay Holmes (66.7) who has been a camp stand out, will be battling diminutive but feisty rookie Cor’del Flott for playing time. Never the less there isn’t that much of a statistical difference not to get these cheaper and younger kids time to play.
Finally, Xavier McKinney (67.9) will get a starting spot all his own and though his coverage number isn’t that impressive it doesn’t seem to stop him from making an impact on the field and it still is an improvement on Julius Peppers score of 87%. The secondary was apparently the strong point of the defense last year and statistically there is nothing in the changes that screams certain doom.
What do we really know about the coaching?
With new coaches, especially a rookie head coach there will come new schemes. The big question is how long will it take for the team to gel and come proficient in their new playbook. It is not unheard of for a team to gel quickly for there have been seven head coaches in the modern era that had double digits wins in their first year coaching. The coaches Dabol has hired to work with him have the pedigree and/or the resumes to justify more optimism than what folks were wishfully manifesting for the previous two or three coaching staffs.
What’s Luck got to do with it?
There is not one facet of the New York Giants that is penciling them in as a two-win team, eight-win team or a twelve-win team. It comes down to dumb luck. Will they or wont they continue their dominance as the most injured team of the last decade? If you can predict that, you may be able to predict the record.
Should Giants fans be optimistic? Not necessarily. But they should not be pessimistic either. Fans need to be comfortable in their ignorance and simply enjoy watching how things play out. If one is a fan of the game of football and enjoys watching a team, players and scheme develop, it will be a fun season. So before you start placing bets on the Giants this year, or anything else in your life, be wary of those who speak in certainties.
Prove me wrong and leave your prediction in the comments. I am still going to give my futile prediction of 9 wins and 8 Loses.
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