Which Elite AFC North Team Will Win the Division in 2024?

While no team from the AFC North made the Super Bowl after the Baltimore Ravens were knocked out in the AFC Championship by the Kansas City Chiefs, the northern division was without a doubt the best division in the NFL this season after three teams made the playoffs and all four teams finished the season with a winning record.  While Baltimore made huge strides to become the number one seed this season, all four teams had excellent seasons and will be pushing for the division championship next season.  So the real question is this; who will actually win the division next season and will they have enough fire power to knock off Kansas City?

What Team will Have the Best Offense in the AFC North Next Season?

When you are trying to figure out the best team under modern NFL rules, the most important thing to keep track of is the offense.  In order to make a push into the playoffs, a team has to have an outstanding offense with elite quarterback play in order to endure shootouts with the other superstar quarterbacks in the NFL.  Since these are NFL teams, all four of them have explosive weapons on the offensive side of the ball but there are clear favorites for next season.

Even though all four will have solid offenses next season, the best offense is likely going to be a tossup between Cincinnati and Baltimore.  Interestingly enough, each team possesses one of the best offenses in the NFL but for polar opposite rationales.  Baltimore has an superb rushing attack led by likely MVP Lamar Jackson and an offensive line that clearly any running back can succeed running behind while Cincinnati has an explosive passing attack behind quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase.  It is interesting to  rationalize which team holds the advantage over the other.

As was made apparent in the AFC Championship game, Jackson may be an excellent quarterback but he simply isn’t the quarterback to have many extraordinary games through the air.  When you are in big games against big competition like Patrick Mahomes, being able to be a top-notch pocket passer is key.

Jackson is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL but his gift is his legs.  A lead like the one Kansas City built last weekend essentially eliminates the use of his legs and after that, he is no more than a top 10 pocket passer.  Burrow on the other hand possesses the gift of pocket poise as he is better than anyone in the league at creating time in the pocket exclusively for him to find open receivers down the field.

Cleveland would be the next best team in the division but quarterback Deshaun Watson simply hasn’t been the same player that he was with the Houston Texans.  Last season was without a doubt Watson’s best season with the Browns but he still only managed to score a quarterback rating of 84.3 (33rd in the NFL).  Regardless of the circumstances, no quarterback is going to be able to generate a high quality offense with that type of performance.

Then the clear fourth place finish falls to the Pittsburgh Steelers as the team still hasn’t been able to figure out answers at either the quarterback or running back positions.  Najee Harris has shown glimpses but hasn’t been able to spark any sort of elite running attack like the kind we are used to seeing on Heinz Field.  Past that, their quarterback Kenny Pickett did not make the leap many analysts expected in his second season.  The team has adequate talent at the receiving positions but even on that front would be the worst group in the division.

Which Team Has the Best Defense in the AFC North?

Now I will full admit: this is where it is far more difficult to make a decision statement.  The top three defenses in the division are arguably three of the five best divisions in the entire league.  Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Baltimore put on excellent displays and all have terrific star driven defenses.

While it is difficult to say definitively, Cleveland has younger talent and was statistically the best defense in the NFL last season.  That doesn’t guarantee them the number one spot next season but Myles Garrett is clearly one of the best defensive players in the NFL and they also have a secondary full of first round talent.

The second choice here is easy as well: Cleveland may have the most talented defense but Pittsburgh is loaded with top-tier talent as well.  Outside linebacker T.J. Watt is clearly in the same tier with Garrett and Minkah Fitzpatrick is another All-Pro caliber safety on the back end.  The problem for Pittsburgh is that after that, there is a pretty dramatic drop off in talent and a severe uptick in age amongst the remaining starters.

While they overperformed heavily this season, I certainly would peg Baltimore as being third.  Linebacker Roquan Smith and safety Kyle Hamilton were both All-Pro last season but after that, the talent on this team is either aging or inexperienced.  They may have overperformed this season but if you have the best running offense in the NFL, it makes the life of the defense so much easier.

After Baltimore, the easiest place on either of these lists has to be Cincinnati in last place.  Defensive end Trey Hendrickson tallied an impressive 17.5 sacks last season (good enough for second in the NFL) but aside from that, the defense was a nightmare.  No one on the entire team seemed capable of making a tackle and they ranked 31st in the league in total yards allowed ahead of only the abysmal Washington Commanders.

The only saving grace for Cincinnati last year was that defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo does a tremendous job on situational defense and he does a great job at generating turnovers.  Without that, Cincinnati would be dead last in the NFL by a long shot.

So What Happens in 2024?

First off, I expect a season very similar to this one where all four teams finish the season with winning records.  None of these teams are going to drop back next season and it is very possible that all four teams will make the playoffs for the first time in NFL History.  As much as it pains me as a Bengals fan, it is most likely that Baltimore wins the division next year after they have done a tremendous job in the draft over the past few years.  They have an abundance of young talent and will look to be improving year after year.

After Baltimore I put Cincinnati because when Burrow is playing, he is capable of winning games against any team in the league all by himself.  That and the combination of abundant turnovers on the defensive side are a healthy recipe for victories.  After Cincinnati would go Cleveland with their incredibly well balanced roster.  The major weakness of Cleveland was the Watson trade where they still won’t have first round talent coming in this offseason and don’t have any first rounders growing in reserve.

After that, Pittsburgh is an outstanding team but it will be similar to this season where they have to rely on tremendous plays from Watt at the end of games in order to make up for mediocre offensive play.  The defense is incredible but the offense is average at best.  That being said, it will be another tremendous year of football in the AFC North next season.

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