Last year, the preseason Big 12 rankings were about as bad as Florida State’s performance against Georgia in the Orange Bowl (too soon?). Teams like West Virginia and Iowa State finished much higher, while Texas Tech and TCU were significantly lower.
We are 236 days away from the next Big 12 game when new member Utah will host Southern Utah on Thursday, August 29th. Naturally, that means it is just the right time to do a way-too-early rankings for the Big 12.
Way Too Early Big 12 Rankings
The best part of the Big 12 is that nobody really ever knows what is going to happen. Last year, West Virginia was projected to finish last in the conference. They ended up going 9-4 on the year including a bowl win. That is what makes the Big 12 great, and something you don’t get with other conferences. For example, I can already pencil in most conference championship games next year, or at least a short list of teams. For the Big 12, teams 1-0 could realistically have a solid argument to be on top next year.
Teams That May Make a Bowl Game, Unlikely to be Contenders
16. Cincinnati
Cincinnati is the next team in the Big 12 rankings. They definitely went through growing pains last year after joining the Big 12. Under new head coach Scott Satterfield, the Bearkats only beat Houston in Big 12 play. In fact, they were only within ten points three times in league play, with the rest being blowouts. To this point, they haven’t done a ton in the transfer portal or with recruiting, but Satterfield is a great recruiter, and will likely find a few impact players to boost the team. Cincinnati will get better, but it may not be in 2024.
15. Baylor
Baylor is one team that certainly could end up being a top-five team, but they have the least upside of any team currently. The Bears currently sit 14th in the 247 Sports recruiting rankings in the conference, and they’ve got quite a few questions, particularly around the quarterback position. Dequan Finn is a solid pickup from Toledo, but he wasn’t the big-time get that really moved the needle to make this a projected top team. For that reason alone, Baylor remains towards the bottom of these Big 12 rankings.
14. Houston
Last season, the Houston Cougars finished last in the Big 12. They fired their coach, brought in a new quarterback from Lousiana Tech, and seem to be doing well in the transfer portal. Houston is too big of a team and market not to improve in the future, it just may take a few years. But for this Big 12 rankings, they will remain towards the bottom of the league.
Teams That Could Surprise, Or Miss a Bowl Game
13. Colorado
Coach Prime and Colorado come in 15th in the Big 12 rankings in large part because of the mystery behind the team. Colorado really struggled last season down the stretch, despite a talented roster. The biggest question is whether the team will be able to stick together. Sometimes, when a bunch of egos get together, it can cause issues. This isn’t anything against the individual players on the team, but with so few carry-over players, one really has to wonder if the Buffaloes will be able to figure it out.
12. Arizona State
Arizona State is always a team that seems like they should be really good, but for the last few years, they just haven’t been. Kenny Dillingham wasn’t shy about needing change, and went into the recruiting and transfer portal and already had 34 players signed. Seven of the players were offensive linemen, which was clearly the biggest issue that Arizona State faced last year. With a stronger O-line and Michigan State transfer QB Sam Leavitt, ASU could easily rise in these rankings.
11. Iowa State
This ranking was particularly tough because it is tough to ever count Matt Campbell out. After a rough start to the season (1-2 in non-conference), the Cyclones ended up piecing together a solid 6-3 conference record. Rocco Becht is a really good quarterback, but it kind of seemed like teams started to figure him out towards the end of the season, and it showed with a 2-3 finish, including a loss to Memphis in the bowl game.
Complete Mysteries
10. Texas Tech
Another mystery team, Texas Tech could easily be in the top five, or they could fall down to 15. One thing to watch is the transfers. The Red Raiders have already had 25 players enter the portal since the start of the season, and have also brought in 13 players of their own. That number will rise as more players find a destination. Another question will be a quarterback. Behren Morton started the last half of the season after Tyler Shough went down with an injury. Morton struggled, but was able to do enough to get the Red Raiders bowl-eligible and a win. The Red Raiders could use another quarterback to push Morton or to be the new starter.
9. BYU
BYU has all the pieces to be really good next year. They return most of their receivers, running backs, and secondary. The biggest question is quarterback. Last year Jake Retzlaff finished out the final four games for the Cougars and had BYU in a chance to win against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but ultimately fell short. BYU went to the portal and got Gary Bohanon, but his potential is also a mystery. If BYU gets that position figured out, watch out. If not, it may be a long season.
Likely to Make a Bowl Game, Could be Contenders
8. TCU
TCU comes up 8th in the way-too-early Big 12 rankings as perhaps the team with the most questions. The Horned Frogs really struggled just a year after playing for the National Championship, but they’ve also got plenty of upside to at least make a return to the top half of the league next season. They’ve got two things going for them: speed and recruiting.
TCU is always a super athletic team that can hang with anyone. They played in four one-score games, going 0-4 in those games. As far as recruiting goes, the Horned Frogs finished second in the league with four 4-star recruits. They also added Ken Seals, a QB transfer from Vanderbilt who could add depth to the position.
7. West Virginia
West Virginia is certainly another team that could end up finishing on either end of the Big 12 rankings at the end of the year. The Mountaineers finished 2023 9-4 after being projected to finish last in the league. Garrett Greene proved to be a very effective quarterback that is more than just a game-manager. Another season of reps, and he could end up being really special, potentially leading his team to a top-five finish again.
6. Kansas
The fact that Kansas is seventh on this Big 12 rankings shows how deep and competitive the Big 12 is going to be next season. The Jayhawks would certainly be ranked higher if they had more stability around the quarterback position. Jalon Daniels announced he will be returning for the Jayhawks, but with his injury history, it is hard to put a lot of stock in him. When Daniels and Bean were both injured, the Jayhawks really struggled.
True Contenders, Likely 8+ Win Teams
5. Utah
Similar to Kansas, a lot is riding in the health of the quarterback. For Utah, that is Cam Rising. Rising will be entering his seventh season (and they say BYU’s players are old) after receiving a medical redshirt this past season. Rising is really good, good enough to lead Utah to back-to-back Rose Bowls, but his health is still a question. Rising tore his MCL, ACL, and meniscus. Despite an entire year to get better, some players just never reach the same level as they did pre-injury. For that reason, Utah sits at 5th in the Big 12 rankings.
4. Kansas State
Prior to the Pop Tart Bowl, Kansas State would have been ranked probably in the 8-10 range in the way-too-early Big 12 rankings, but with the emergence of Avery Johnson, Wildcat fans are feeling much more confident in their future. With a dominant defense returning in 2024, Kansas State will likely be one of the teams playing for a Big 12 Championship Game spot in the final few weeks of the season.
3. UCF
UCF, at number three, certainly is going against the grain of what other writers are going to be predicting, but there are plenty of reasons why to believe UCF will be a top team in the league. First, UCF did a fantastic job in both recruiting and the transfer portal. The recruiting class finished third in the league, and they got KJ Jefferson to transfer from Arkansas.
Jefferson is by far the greatest transfer the Big 12 has picked up this season, and Jefferson can single-handedly make this team great. Last year, the Golden Knights seemed to figure something out late in the year winning three of their final four regular season games. This momentum will continue and UCF will have a great year.
Kelly Presnell, Arizona Daily Star
2. Arizona
Once the final AP rankings come out, Arizona will be the highest-ranked future Big 12 team. The Wildcats have found a ton of success behind Jedd Fisch and QB Noah Fifita, who threw for more than 2,800 yards despite only starting nine games. To give some perspective, in a full 13-game season, Fifita would have been on track to throw for more than 3,700 yards.
This team is very dangerous, which is why they earned the second spot in the way-too-early Big 12 rankings.
1. Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State played in the Big 12 Championship Game two of the last three seasons. Neither season was a flashy or dominant season, but winning and making it to the Championship Game is no fluke, no matter how it is done. That alone shows that they deserve to be ranked high in the Big 12 rankings, regardless of what talent they gained/lost so far. But it doesn’t stop there.
With Ollie Gordon III and Alan Bowman both returning next year, the Cowboy backfield could potentially be the most dangerous duo in all of college football, yes – all of college football. This team certainly has the most momentum going into the off-season with these announcements along with the bowl win against NC State.
Way-Too-Early Big 12 Rankings Conclusion
These Big 12 Rankings are fun, but more than anything they show how fun the league is. Every single one of these teams has a chance to be bowl-eligible next season, and that’s something that can’t be said about any other conference in the nation.
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