This is the season to wait on a quarterback in fantasy football. With significant moves from quarterbacks, receivers and coaching staffs in the offseason, this year’s fantasy rankings are irrelevant as ever. Nobody knows for sure which QB will emerge under new coaching or with new weapons.
That being said, a lot of field generals aren’t being given enough respect by fantasy rankings, and there’s definitely a theme to their prejudice. Here are a few late-round quarterbacks in new situations that are primed to outperform their ADP this season.
Russell Wilson
ESPN RANK: QB10, ADP: 88
Russell Wilson in the ninth? Give me that value over almost any of the first nine QBs in ESPN’s rankings. Wilson was much worse off in Seattle than people realize. From 2017 to 2021, Wilson was the most-sacked quarterback in football, despite Seattle’s run-first mentality. He racked up 189 sacks over four seasons, even though Seattle led the league in rushing play percentage in 2018, according to TeamRankings. This tells me that Wilson could have a Matthew Stafford-esque turnaround in Denver.
Head coach Nathaniel Hackett has committed to building an offense around Wilson’s talents for the first time in his career. With great weapons around him, Wilson has everything he needs to stay consistent throughout the season in Denver. The most important of which is a coach that’s committed to Russell’s strengths in the passing game.
“Watching Russell’s tape for years now, it’s actually pretty similar to what I’ve done at Green Bay and Jacksonville, so we want to just combine everything,” Hackett said. “We want to make a Denver Broncos offense… In the end, it’s about what Russ does really well and what the receivers do really well.”
Pete Carroll never really let Russ Cook in the way fans and media clamored for. The self-dubbed “Mr. Unlimited” has never played a full season where the two halves were consistent in both production and volume. Either he fell off and started turning the ball over, or his volume fell in their run-first attack. But no longer. Russ is set to Cook on high volume in the Mile High City this season.
Derek Carr
ESPN RANK: QB14, ADP: 110
Carr ranked 14th last season in total fantasy points at QB without the best receiver in football. Now, he has Davante Adams, his close friend and former college teammate at Fresno State. Adams is the only WR to earn a 99 rating in this year’s Madden after five straight Pro Bowl seasons and two straight First-Team All Pro selections.
Last season, the Raiders ranked fourth in the league in passing play percentage at 66.9%, and Carr finished fifth in the league in passing yards. What brought his fantasy stock down were the 14 interceptions he threw last season. That being said, Adams’ arrival should limit his turnovers because he operates mostly in the first two levels of the defense.
This will supply Carr with some shorter, open targets that weren’t available last season. Not to mention, Adams will draw defenders away from the pair of 1,000-yard receivers the Raiders already have, slot man Hunter Renfrow and explosive tight end Darren Waller.
It’s illogical to think that Carr’s fantasy output won’t improve after adding one of the best offensive weapons in all of football, so draft him late and enjoy a starting-caliber quarterback in the 12th+ round. Carr’s volume will only go up this season, while his turnovers should be limited thanks to Adams. That makes him at least a top-12 quarterback.
Kirk Cousins
ESPN RANK: QB15, ADP: 135
Cousins doesn’t have many new weapons, but he does have a new head coach, which is even more significant in his case. Mike Zimmer straight-up didn’t like Kirk Cousins. This is what former Vikings linebacker Ben Leber had to say about the veteran quarterback’s trajectory for 2022, according to NBC Sports.
“I think he’s gonna finally thrive, really thrive, in a system and a coach that actually respects him,” Leber recently told Zach Gelb of CBS Sports Radio. “I mean, It’s not like I’m not breaking news here that Mike Zimmer did not like Kirk Cousins. And I think that showed in the way that Kirk behaved and the way that he carried himself.”
Cousins still managed to rank ninth for QBs in total fantasy points under this scrutinous regime. Meanwhile, new head coach Kevin O’Connel has already forged a good relationship with Cousins when he served as his QB Coach during the 2017 season in Washington. This is going to be a more pass-heavy offense simply due to their personnel.
It’s more beneficial to feed their elite receiver duo than to abuse Dalvin Cook’s already-battered body for 25 touches a game, protected by a mediocre line. A young coach like O’Connel knows that and will have a scheme in place that plays to Cousins’ strengths. This Vikings offense will look much different in 2022 and Kirk will reap the rewards on the stat sheet.
The three-time Pro Bowler loves to let the ball rip from the pocket, and he’ll have plenty of opportunity to do so this season. Given he was QB9 last season, Cousins should hit that mark again this year with more projected volume.
Tua Tagovailoa
ESPN RANK: QB16, ADP: 152
Tua Tagovailoa has a completely new supporting cast in 2022, featuring a new coaching staff along with the fastest man in football, Tyreek Hill. They also picked up two of the quickest backs in the league and a top-5 left tackle in Terron Armstead. Armstead had the fourth-highest PFF pass-blocking grade in 2021 at 85.6.
The person left out of these headlines was Tua, who has endured much skepticism about his arm strength and ability to produce in the NFL. That being said, this Miami team is unlike any he’s ever played with, and he’s under new coaching that has clearly committed to a pass-first offense. Signing Chase Edmunds, one of the league’s premiere receiving backs, made that evident if the Armstead signing and the Hill extension hadn’t already. New offensive coordinator Frank Smith had this to say on what he’s seen from Tua thus far.
“He’s been doing a great job of… every day presents different routes, different things we’re trying to accomplish with receivers,” Smith said via Alain Poupart of SI.com. “So I would say that everything we’ve done so far has been extremely optimistic because there’s certain things in our progressions and reads and his ability to move from throughout his progressions really helps.”
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle present the opportunity for a complex offense, complete with every route on the tree. That means Tua will have the volume to pad the stat sheet like never before, with high-percentage passes as well as deep bombs to his stacked pass-catchers. It’s true that Tagovailoa may still struggle with turnovers because of this, but the ceiling on the former fifth overall pick is through the roof. At QB16 with a 152 ADP, it is well worth taking a flier on Tua.