How about this to chew on? The 5-8 Chicago Bears, who started the season 0-4 and sputtered unevenly until fairly recently, could make the playoffs AND get the overall no. 1 in the 2024 NFL draft. If it DID happen, it would be the first time a team has accomplished that best-of-both-worlds feat since the 1973-1974 Dallas Cowboys.
Wow.
Is this some sort of Bizarro World fan fiction, concocted by a delusional die heard Bears fan with way too much Red Bull in their system?
Honestly, maybe. But, actually, it IS possible. Technically possible. Technically possible, with a whole lot of help from other teams and a boatload of good luck. Still, it’s possible.
How the Chicago Bears Could Make the Playoffs and Get the Number 1 Pick
The overall no. 1 pick is the easy part of the required scenario to achieve this. Via last season’s trade with the Carolina Panthers, they’re all but guaranteed to get that top draft pick this coming year. ESPN Analytics actually gives the Bears a 95% chance of bagging the overall no. 1 slot with their acquired Panthers pick (as well as a 98% probability of picking in the top two and a 99% likelihood of a top-three pick).
The playoff berth, however, is what requires some creative thinking and a whole lot of favorable mathing.
Per CBS Sports, the Bears could make the playoffs if:
— The Panthers finish with worst record in NFL
— The Bears win out
— The Vikings lose at least three out of final four games
— The Seahawks and Rams each lose at least twice
— Two of the Buccaneers, Saints and Falcons lose at least twice
Yeah, all of that is probably not going to happen. According to SportsLine, Chicago has a 1.4% chance of making the playoffs.
But 1.4% is not zero, right?
Now, assuming that the Bears will have to settle for “just” the no. 1 pick from the Panthers and their own no. 1 pick (which is likely to be among the top 5 overall picks), what can fans expect?
There are mock drafts aplenty all around the NFL online universe. Most have the team taking blue chip quarterback prospect Caleb Williams from USC. Others envision the Bears taking another blue chip quarterback Drake Maye from UNC.
This is assuming that Chicago is moving on from Justin Fields at quarterback. But with the way Fields has been playing lately and the clear development he’s been showing, there’s no guarantee anymore that the Justin Fields era is over in Chi-Town.
If the team decides to keep Fields at the helm and build around him, the Bears would likely select the extremely well-regarded wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. from Ohio State with their no. 1 pick and, maybe, offensive tackle Joe Alt from Notre Dame with their own pick.
Another draft scenario has emerged in recent days, though. It’s one where the team trades off their no. 1 pick for even more high draft capital.
“The Bears have to block out all the noise over the next four weeks and over the first four months of 2024. If Justin Fields plays down the stretch as well as he played in beating the Lions Sunday and has played often this season—if, if, if—GM Ryan Poles should auction the first pick in the draft for three ones and build a contending around the 24-year-old Fields.”
At this point, all this draft talk is purely conjecture and, in many cases, just dreamy content to toss on a website for the amusement (and clicks) of the die-hard NFL and Chicago Bears fandom.
This playoff talk, though? It’s crazy-eyed make-believe…even if it’s still statistically possible.