The 2021 NFL Quarterback Class was meant to be one of the best to have ever been drafted. Three of them went in the first three selections of the 2021 NFL Draft.
Instead, four of the five 2021 Quarterbacks have largely failed to pan out, despite early promises. So far this offseason, one has already been traded, another may yet be traded, and the third–Zach Wilson–has been granted a request to receive a trade from the New York Jets. Only Trevor Lawrence has shown any kind of excellence in the NFL, and even he has faced struggles of his own.
As we prepare for the incoming QB class of 2024, one that possesses many similarities to 2021’s, we must ask one question of the 2021 QB class:
What happened?
All Five Quarterbacks Faced Truncated Final College Seasons
Each and every one of the 2021 quarterbacks faced a shortened final season in college. This was largely in part due to the COVID-19 pandemic necessitating it. In order, the number of games every 2021 quarterback played in their final college season is as follows: 13, 12, 12, 8, 1.
The player who only played once in his final college season is Trey Lance. It is not shocking, then, that of all of these 2021 quarterbacks taken, Lance has faced the most struggles of them all. Lance has played all of four professional games, and has faced both season-ending injuries and trades to other teams. While the San Francisco 49ers have hardly struggled at all after making their move up nine selections to obtain him, their selection of Lance will be looked at for years to come as one of the worst ever.
But some of the 2021 quarterbacks did, to some degree, show early flashes.
Early Promises For Mac Jones
The New England Patriots enjoyed two decades of unprecedented success with Tom Brady. Brady’s move to Tampa after the 2019 offseason sent the Patriots into a brief tailspin during the 2020 offseason. Mac Jones would be drafted 15th overall in the following year’s draft.
And much like his legendary predecessor, Mac Jones led New England on a playoff run in his first season. In his rookie campaign, Mac Jones threw for 22 touchdowns, a franchise rookie record, and led the Patriots to the postseason with a 10-7 record. New England would lose on Wild Card Weekend to Buffalo.
2022 and 2023, on the other hand, have been much less fruitful for Jones and the Patriots. Jones has only continued to regress, ending up with his benching for the remainder of 2023 amidst New England’s worst season in decades.
Jones would be traded to Jacksonville in the 2024 offseason, joining Trevor Lawrence in North Florida.
Trevor Lawrence Has Been Only Constant
Lawrence found early hopes, and early struggles, under Urban Meyer. The #1 pick of this class, Lawrence started his career with turmoil, as Urban Meyer would be fired after 13 games. Doug Pederson would come in and help Lawrence meet his potential in the 2022 season.
After starting 2022 with a 4-8 record, Lawrence played lights-out in the five game winning streak to close 2022, and help Jacksonville earn a division title. This title would then be parlayed into a playoff victory, a 27-3 comeback over the Los Angeles Chargers.
2023 saw Lawrence open the season looking the best he ever has. After the Jags started 6-2, multiple injuries between November and December saw the Jaguars collapse and fall out of the playoff chase altogether as Lawrence fell off drastically.
The Rest of the QBs have been enigmas
Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance have faced the least success of any of the 2021 quarterbacks. Fields has won only 10 games in three seasons as Bears starter, Wilson was benched multiple times–then thrust back into the starting role in 2023 after injuries to Aaron Rodgers–while Lance has, as mentioned above, only seen four games of NFL action.
All three have, or will soon be, set to be traded or replaced on their current rosters. Wilson, if he is not traded, will be back behind Aaron Rodgers. Lance has been rumored to now be traded away from Dallas, and has been linked to the Minnesota Vikings.
Fields is likely set to either be traded, or compete with the incoming #1 overall pick, likely to be USC standout Caleb Williams. The Bears will likely not get a significant haul should they trade him.
Will History Repeat itself With 2024 class?
The 2024 NFL Draft, much like the 2021 draft, has garnered significant attention at the signal-caller position. And much like that draft, we may see no less than five quarterbacks get taken very early on, and another two–Washington’s Michael Penix and Oregon’s Bo Nix–may also be first round talent.
And once again, just like that 2021 class, these seven players have been heralded as some of the best talents to emerge from the college ranks. We simply cannot speculate at this time how the 2024 QB class may ultimately turn out as professional players, but if we look to the past, the future for at least one of these seven players may be grimmer than we think, while others may find the successes few could have expected.