As the dust is settling on the realignment chaos of the last couple of weeks, the ACC may just be left behind when compared to the new look SEC and Big Ten. College football seems to be shifting from the Power 5 conference model to a more dominant two conference model, headed by the SEC and Big Ten. Still, any ACC team hoping to jump ship and onto a new bandwagon will face seemingly insurmountable obstacles.
The most popular choice for major conferences would be Notre Dame, a team that is technically not a member of the ACC, but does have an agreement in place that would prohibit them from joining another conference.
Let's start with Notre Dame. Fact 1: ND has a contract with the ACC that says it must join the ACC in football if it joins a league. Fact 2: Virtually no one expects ND to join the ACC. How can that be?
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2022
Notre Dame, being an independent, has no conference allegiance, but would be highly sought after thanks to their name-brand recognition and long history within the sport. Overzealous companies willing to finance huge NIL deals may even push Notre Dame to join a conference in the near future. In 2020, Notre Dame was part of the ACC to ease any logistical issues caused by COVID.
ND's contract with the ACC looks essentially like everyone else in the league: An exit fee (3x annual revenue) and a GoR – but only for non-football sports. ND's ACC revenue for 2019-20 (pre-COVID) was $10.8M, while full ACC schools were $32.3M.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2022
While Notre Dame’s fee would be significantly smaller, ACC members would have to front a large sum of money to venture outwards. For smaller profile (especially in football terms) schools like Syracuse, while the move may be worthwhile athletically, it could be damaging financially. Notre Dame already has a lucrative broadcast deal with NBC set to expire in 2025, while Syracuse needs to rely on the ACC Network to televise the majority of their football games.
Financial/broadcasting hurdles
Now let's talk about the ACC's grant of rights. It runs through 2036 — 14 years from now — and it means the ACC owns the broadcast rights for all members until then. The rumor mill has largely ignored how big an obstacle this really is — and it's enormous.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2022
What would it take for a team to leave? An exit fee (3x annual revenue) would be in the neighborhood of $120-150M. Then, assuming the ACC allowed a team to buy out its media rights, you'd be looking at another $300M or so, minimum, from 2024-36.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2022
But here's the thing: The ACC has no incentive to settle for a buyout. Instead, it could simply say, "We own your broadcast rights. Your games will air on our network or not at all." And what value is there for any other league to add an ACC team that can't earn TV money?
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2022
Stay Put
A smaller conference, say the MAC, would have zero incentive to take on a team like Syracuse, whose games would not be broadcasted.
The ACC also announced their newest scheduling format, but of course, timed it just before the big realignment news hit the airwaves.
For now, it appears, Syracuse is stuck in limbo, along with the rest of the ACC teams, as more teams leave for greener pastures, and more green (money).
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