Allen Robinson, Chase Claypool, and Kadarius Toney lead a highly intriguing group of WRs who are poised to outperform their ADP and return significant value in 2022.
It’s these types of players that turn a middling fantasy squad into a title contender, and they’re available at all stages of the draft this season.
Let take a look at some wideouts who underperformed in 2021 — and make sure the 2022 WR ADP is properly accounting for changes in situation, context, and potential for positive regression.
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Note: 2021 Fantasy Statistical Performance & Rankings Based On 0.5 PPR Weeks 1-17 / ADP Sourced from FantasyPros.com
ALLEN ROBINSON
2022 Average Draft Position: WR28
2021 Overall Finish: WR88 (36 Rec – 62 Tgt – 388 Yds – 1 TD)
6-2 220lb veteran WR Allen Robinson was a victim of a hugely disappointing 2021 season, almost entirely disappearing into the morass of the Chicago Bears offense led by past-prime Andy Dalton and rookie Justin Fields. However, the draft market has already begun to recognize the difference a year can make.
Goodbye Matt Nagy, goodbye Andy Dalton. Goodbye Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles, and Blake Bortles. Hello, Los Angeles Rams! Hello Matt Stafford and Sean McVay!
Over the course of his career, the 29-year-old Robinson has compiled a 16-game average of 80 receptions / 1025.6 yards / 6.4 touchdowns — a statline which would have slotted as the WR20 overall last season — and now Robinson will be a primary feature in the best offense in which he’s ever had the chance to operate.
You’ll already have to spend a 5/6th-round pick or higher to acquire Robinson, and that price may continue to rise as we progress through draft season, but there is certainly a sizable range of potential outcomes that produce a Top-24 finish for Robinson at his position this season.
CHASE CLAYPOOL
2022 Average Draft Position: WR43
2021 Overall Finish: WR41 (54 Rec – 98 Tgt – 823 Yds – 1 TD)
Pittsburgh Steeler WR Chase Claypool is a prime candidate to outperform his draft position, and his current ADP is weighing his disappointing 2021 campaign too heavily, while disregarding the ceiling Claypool exhibited on his way to a WR19 overall finish the previous year in 2020.
Claypool was unlucky to turn 54 receptions and 98 targets into only a single touchdown in 2021 after recording nine TDs in 2020. Especially considering the 6-4 238lb WR’s combination of speed, strength, and athleticism, it’s quite reasonable to expect Claypool to find the end zone multiple times this season.
The biggest situational consideration in 2022 is clearly the replacement of Ben Roethlisberger with former 1st-round draft pick Mitch Trubisky. While Trubisky has far from proven himself to be a starting caliber QB in the NFL, he was in fact able to support the aforementioned Allen Robinson to WR11 and WR12 overall seasons in 2019 and 2020, and Claypool and Robinson share some distinct similarities with regard to size, speed, and skill set.
If Claypool can establish a rapport with Trubisky, he can easily earn 100+ targets in the Steeler offense, and convert those opportunities into WR3+ production in 2022. He is certainly an option worth considering this draft season at his currently depressed value.
KADARIUS TONEY
2022 Average Draft Position: WR46
2021 Overall Finish: WR87 (39 Rec – 57 Tgt – 420 Yds – 0 TD)
The concern with budding New York Giants star Kadarius Toney is not one of talent. The 2021 20th overall pick flashed his tantalizing playmaking ability in limited work last season, including a 10 Rec / 189 Yd explosion against rival Dallas Cowboys in Week 5. About the only thing he didn’t do was get into the end zone.
There also aren’t any situational concerns heading into the season — Toney’s competition for targets primarily consists of Kenny Golladay, from whom Toney would likely benefit if Golladay were able to put together a consistent campaign, and the pedestrian and oft-injured Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton.
Head Coach Brian Daboll is newly-arrived from Buffalo, where he navigated the Bills offense to top-3 overall finishes in each of the last two seasons, and seems sure to inject much-needed energy and innovation into a Giants offense that has bumbled its way to back-to-back 31st overall finishes in the same time frame.
The looming question with Toney heading into the 2022 season is the same concern that caused him to miss significant time as a rookie: Injuries. Toney incurred a prix fixe menu’s worth of injuries in 2021. The young wideout has documented history of shoulder issues going back to college, and last year alone missed time with hamstring, ankle, quad, and oblique injuries in addition to continued shoulder ailment as well as contracting COVID-19.
Toney is healthy as we enter the preseason and regular season. He’s an exciting, explosive talent in an improved offensive environment. The question of whether he has the durability to survive a whole season remains, but Toney represents maximum upside in an area of the draft populated by much less exciting WR options.
RASHOD BATEMAN
2022 Average Draft Position: WR37
2021 Overall Finish: WR71 (44 Rec – 64 Tgt – 493 Yds – 1 TD)
Rashod Bateman was a trendy preseason storyline in 2021 after the Baltimore Ravens made him a 1st-round draft pick, but his hype failed to translate to significant fantasy relevance in the NFL’s third-ranked rushing offense. The 6-2 210lb Bateman missed the first five games of the ’21 season, but did manage to flash consistent playmaking ability as the year progressed.
Fast forward to 2022, and Bateman finds himself the Lead Dog in a receiver group that saw Marquise Brown traded to Arizona and Sammy Watkins allowed to walk in free agency. TE Mark Andrews will remain a primary target in Baltimore, but Bateman figures to factor heavily in accounting for the 195 targets / 31.9% target share vacated by Brown and Watkins.
The early draft market has established Bateman solidly on the WR3/4 fringe, and it’s not guaranteed that he is able to return significantly higher value. However, Bateman is an attractive option this year primarily because he has a floor built in his range of potential outcomes based on opportunity that pairs well with the upside he offers at his current 2022 ADP.
JAKOBI MEYERS
2022 Average Draft Position: WR62
2021 Overall Finish: WR33 (79 Rec – 118 Tgt – 796 Yds – 2 TD)
New England Patriots 4th-year Wide Receiver Jakobi Meyers really did not underperform in 2021 — his WR33 overall finish is one of the quietest WR3 performances in recent memory, and the discrepancy between finish and 2022 ADP also one of the most notable.
The early market doesn’t seem to believe in the 6-2 200lb former undrafted free agent, and it’s somewhat understandable. Meyers made headlines in 2021 for the wrong reasons, establishing records for career highs in receptions (134) and receiving yards (1,560) before recording a first TD reception.
But as we know, touchdowns are not predictive nor predictable, and Meyers was playing in a highly conservative offensive environment helmed by rookie QB Mac Jones. If Meyers’ TD total sees positive regression and Jones continues to improve upon the potential he exhibited under center in ’21, another WR3+ performance is definitely in play for Meyers.
Meyers saw significant opportunity last season and figures to continue to play an important role in the New England aerial attack in 2022. He’s shown good hands and playmaking ability at all levels of the field, and seems a lock to outperform his current 2022 ADP.
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