College Football seems to focus 98% of its coverage on the Power Conferences, which include the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and ACC. However, there are only 70 Power Conference teams (If you include Oregon State and Washington State) out of the 134 teams in the FBS. So what about the other 64 teams? While only a handful will ever even sniff the Top 25 in a given year, they are still technically competing for the same National Championship as teams in the SEC and Big 10.
Starting this year, the G5 will have a real shot at winning the National Championship as they will have at least one representative in the newly formatted 12-team College Football Playoff.
But the strength of a conference is still really important. Take the SEC and Big 10. Both conferences are so good that you can pencil in at least four of the seven ‘at-large’ spots going to these conferences. This means Notre Dame, ACC, Big 12, and other G5s will all be fighting for at most three at-large spots.
The same is true about the G5. A one-loss team in one G5 league is not equal to another G5 league. Some conferences are much stronger than others, which could be the deciding factor in determining which team makes the Playoffs.
6. Independents
UConn and Umass are the final two Independent teams (not named Notre Dame). For one of these two teams to make the Playoff, they must be an at-large team. Even with an undefeated schedule, it is unlikely that they would get a spot unless there are just a ton of four-loss SEC and Big 10 teams.
5. Conference USA
Conference USA has been the conference where FCS teams go to become FBS. Four of the ten teams in the league (Kennesaw State, Liberty, Jacksonville State, and Sam Houston) were not FBS teams just five years ago. New Mexico State (and Liberty) were Independent teams just two years ago.
For Conference USA to get into the Playoff, they would likely need to go undefeated and hope that every other conference champion has at least one loss. Even then, it may not be enough.
The other bad news is that the SEC loves to schedule CUSA teams. Those are tough to win and can almost delegitimize any team before the season really gets going. On the flip side, they have a chance if they pull off the upset.
4. Mid-American Conference (MAC)
Everyone loves some MACtion on a Tuesday or Wednesday night, but nobody wants to see them in the College Football Playoff. The brands are much better than in the CUSA; however, the teams and markets are all so small that they struggle to gain a following, and their recruiting areas are very competitive (and they share the market with Big 10 teams).
One example of this is the three directional schools in Michigan (Western, Central, and Eastern), not to mention that Toledo and Bowling Green are also within 100 miles of Eastern Michigan.
Occasionally, a team breaks through, but like the CUSA, it would probably take an undefeated season and the three conferences ahead of them to have a one-loss champion to make the playoff. So, what is the advantage over the CUSA? They’d likely have the tie-breaker if both conference champions had the same record.
3. Sun Belt
The Sun Belt is a solid conference with decent teams on top, like James Madison, App State, Coastal Carolina, and Troy. The Sun Belt has been another team that has taken new teams, such as Old Dominion and James Madison, but their additions haven’t had such a tough time acclimating to the FBS level.
The Sun Belt conference is the perfect average between the top two conferences, the MAC and CUSA. The Sun Belt doesn’t have any teams that are likely to be promoted to the P4 level, but it also doesn’t have many teams that people don’t recognize. For example, everyone has heard of Southern Miss and Marshall, but not everyone has heard of Kennesaw State and Florida International (both CUSA).
2. American Athletic Conference (AAC)
This is the first year in a very long time that the AAC will not be viewed as the best G5 conference in the country, at least going into the season. But that happens when you lose Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, and SMU in two years and replace them with Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, UAB, Rice, and UTSA.
That isn’t anything against those new teams. They certainly were promoted from the CUSA and other conferences they came from, but they aren’t moving up the P4 anytime soon.
So why is the AAC still number two? There is something to say about four teams getting promoted from a single conference. The AAC’s leadership and structure are set up to make teams great. They schedule well and prepare their teams to succeed, which could mean a spot in the 2024 College Football Playoff.
Also, Memphis and Tulane are still two strong candidates to move up to the P4 if those leagues decide to expand again.
Post-realignment FBS Massey Composite rankings. Put 100 for JMU/SHSU given their success and 133 for Jacksonville St.
As of right now, the New Big 12 is better than the current Big 12 and the PAC-12 is closer to the MW, AAC, SBC, New AAC and New SBC than the new Big 12: pic.twitter.com/jRDtiqBvzH
— Garrett McClintock (@GJMcClintock) November 8, 2021
1. Mountain West
The Mountain West is benefiting mostly from its lack of competition. With the Pac-12 now dead, it is the last regionally made-up conference west of Texas. Additionally, they have a scheduling deal set up with Oregon State and Washington State that will make the conference look good and improve the strength of the schedule for most teams.
Additionally, San Diego State, Boise State, Fresno State, and Colorado State are good candidates to be added to a Power League if conferences want to move west.
Finally, the Mountain West is a breath of fresh air. Unlike most national conferences, it hasn’t been a revolving door of teams entering and leaving. Any common college football fan knows who is in the Mountain West, which is not the case with other conferences. I’ll admit, I didn’t know Charlotte was now in the AAC or that Marshall left the CUSA for the Sun Belt.
Of all the conferences, barring a huge upset over an SEC or Big 10 in the non-conference, the Mountain West would hold all tie-breakers over other conferences to get the auto-bid to the Playoff. The Mountain West also feels like the only conference with an outside shot at getting a second team into the Playoff.
Preseason Mountain 🏔️ West 🏈 Rankings by @AthlonSports
Who might be overrated or underrated?
Is Wyoming too low? Is San Jose State too low? Is New Mexico also too low (Bronco Mendenhall an excellent hire)?
What do you think of the Aztecs this year? Thoughts on Colorado St? pic.twitter.com/8pD7W9k7A8
— Brock Laue (@BrockLaue) June 29, 2024
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