REPORT: College Football Group of Five Teams to Watch Out For in 2024

There is no doubt that College Football is focused primarily on the Power Four schools and that the Group of Five schools get left behind. This has never been more true than now, as the five best G5 schools have been promoted to P4 (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, SMU, and UCF) the past two years, while teams like James Madison, Jacksonville State, Sam Houston State, and Kennesaw State have been brought into the G5 from the FCS level.

That isn’t to say that those four new teams haven’t earned their right to the FBS level, but when the best G5 teams leave for the P4 and are replaced with FCS schools, the G5 dilutes even more. Today, very few G5 brands carry much weight. Boise State, San Diego State, Memphis, and Liberty are the perceived leaders of the G5, but even they feel like they would be out of place in the current P4 landscape.

Despite this, the G5 now officially gets a seat at the CFP table. The spot will go to the highest-ranked G5 conference champion overall. While five conferences are fighting for this one spot, only one will make it.

Here is a team from each conference set up to be the G5 representative fighting for a National Championship in the new expanded playoff.

American Conference (AAC) – South Florida

South Florida could very easily be the highest-ranked conference champion with a huge win in its nonconference schedule. The Bulls will play Alabama and host Miami in the first four weeks of the schedule. If USF somehow steals one of these two games, it will immediately be in the spotlight.

The thing is, neither win would be THAT crazy. Last year, USF kept Alabama in check and nearly pulled off the upset. With a new coaching staff and many new players still figuring out the offense/defense, maybe the Bulls can pull off the huge upset.

Later, against Miami, the Hurricanes will be playing scared, like a 5 vs. 12 matchup in the NCAA Basketball tournament where the higher-rated 5 seed is playing a dangerous mid-major and is just trying not to lose. More times than you’d think, the 12-seed wins.

From there, USF has a favorable schedule hosting Memphis and avoiding UTSA, North Texas, East Carolina, and Army, four of the top eight teams projected to be .500 according to College Football Network. Finally, they play four the bottom teams in the league projections, which could mean a lot of conference wins for the Bulls.

With an 11-1 record, USF would likely be the G5 representative, even above some 12-0 teams from other conferences.

Conference USA – Liberty

The issue with Conference USA is that it is the CUSA. This conference quite frankly is barely G5, except the top few teams (Liberty, Western Kentucky). Most of the teams in this conference play quite a few “buy-in games,” which means basically they travel to a big ACC or SEC school, get beat by 40, but get $1 million or so for agreeing to play. This money helps fund the program, which is essential, but it also ends any real postseason aspirations beyond the Bahamas Bowl.

For a CUSA team to make the Playoffs, they will have to go undefeated and hope the next best G5 champion is 10-2 or worse. That is the only realistic path; the only team in the CUSA with that kind of path is Liberty.

Liberty is still adjusting to being in a conference, which means their non-conference slate is pretty lame from an entertainment standpoint. They play the following non-conference games:

• Campbell
• East Carolina
• UMass

These games are not impressive and will not help Liberty advance to the Playoff, so they hope that they reach 12-0 and are just the last team standing. Otherwise, they will not outrank any other undefeated champion.

Mid-American Conference (MAC) – None

As crazy and sad as it is for me to say this, there isn’t a single team in the MAC that feels like it has a real shot at being the highest-ranked G5 champion. According to College Football Network, the top three teams in the MAC will likely be Toldeo, Miami, Ohio, and Northern Illinois. There may not be another team projected to be above .500.

The issue is, here is the nonconference slate of these three top teams

• Toledo – Mississippi State, Western Kentucky, UMass, Duquense
• Miami Ohio – Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Northwestern, UMass
• Northern Illinois – Notre Dame, NC State, UMass, Western Illinois

First off, what are the odds that all three teams will play against FBS Independent UMass? Aside from that, I guess technically Toledo has the easiest path with a lower-tiered SEC team, but WKU is going to be good, and it will likely take a 12-0 record to beat out an 11-1 Mountain West, Sun Belt, or AAC Champion.

Mountain West – Air Force

Air Force is set up to potentially have a sneaky good year that looks much better than it is. The Falcons will play against Baylor, Navy, and Army in their nonconference along with FCS Merrimack, but those first three teams will all likely struggle this year; however, with their name brand, they will be viewed as good wins.

A 4-0 nonconference that looks better than it is would go a long way in getting Air Force into a good spot for the postseason. It also helps that Air Force avoids playing Boise State, UNLV, and Utah State, all teams that have given them issues in the past and are projected to be solid in 2024. The only games Air Force plays against teams projected to be at the top of the conference are Fresno State and Colorado State, both at home.

In other words, if a schedule could be drawn up to favor the Air Force, they would get exactly what they wanted.

Sun Belt – Troy

Troy has a very interesting schedule, with its nonconference teams consisting of Nevada, Memphis, Iowa, and Florida A&M. Memphis and Iowa will both be challenging, but if Troy can pull off the upset and score a touchdown against Iowa (kidding…sort of), it will set them up for a special season.

What may help Troy more than anything is that they play in a division different from App State, Coastal Carolina, and James Madison, which are three of the best teams in the conference. The Sun Belt is the last conference with divisions, and it seriously could help Troy.

Troy will play Arkansas State, South Alabama, Texas State, Louisiana, Southern Miss, and ULM in their division and then Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern in the other division. The good news is that Troy hosts Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern is projected to be very good.

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