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    NIL top-10 compared to AP top-10

    J- AllenBy Updated:No Comments3 Mins Read
    NIL top-10
    Photo Credit NCAAsports.org (Decision Tree)
     Everyone in college football is talking about Name Image Likeness (NIL) and it’s effect on college sports, especially NCAA football. So is the NIL top-10 a determination of AP top-10? Some national columnists say the effects will be hugely detrimental, while others argue that the rich will just get richer .  But does college football NIL compare to the on-the-field results, the AP top-10?
    NIL top-10 doesn’t perfectly compare to the AP top-10

    But strangely enough, not all NIL riches predict success on the field.  This year is the first year so there’s no bar for comparison, so we’ll look at the facts going into October, and see what’s happened so far.

    These are the NCAAF preseason 2022 NIL rankings according to the definitive source, on3.com. 1st 5, Texas A&M,  Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Texas round out top 5.  Six through 10, Notre Dame, Penn State, Oklahoma, Michigan, and North Carolina round out the 10.

    There are five of those NIL top-10 that are not in the top 10.  In fact, four are not in the AP top 25.  I list them below, with the NIL preseason ranking in parentheses. The schools are Texas A&M(1),  Texas, (5) Notre Dame (6), Oklahoma (8) and North Carolina (10) – ranked but not top-10.  So your question might be; how did this happen?

    NIL top-10 compared greatly to the AP top-25 (preseason)
    I note that each of these teams has been ranked in the AP poll during this season.  In fact all were ranked in the preseason, and Texas A&M was the last to drop out. Each of these preseason top 10 NIL teams have disappeared from the top 25, but why? What is the disconnect?
    This is the first year of fully allowed name, image, and likeness in college football. So there’s no historical comparison, but we can look at preseason comparisons of top-25.  There’s not a year that there are not 3-5 and even multiple top 10 AP teams that lose early twice and drop off the map.  The easy explanation is that preseason rankings (as well as recruiting rankings) are just guides to  the upcoming season.
    The NIL top-10 disconnect explained

     Here are those four top-10 Texas A&M(1),  Texas, (5) Notre Dame (6), Oklahoma (8) that are not in the top-25, much less the top-10.  Let’s look at a couple of examples.  Here, I’m referencing the AP rankings: Texas(NR), Notre Dame (NR), and Oklahoma(NR) come in with 1st and 2nd year coaches. The disconnect between expected performance and actual performance is usually most accented in new coaching hires. 

    Texas A&M is unexpectedly unranked after a shocking upset to an FCS team, and a mild upset, but many expect them to be ranked as the year progresses.  The fifth team not in the top-10, North Carolina, is still ranked in the teens of the AP and coaches poll.  Depending upon late-season performance they may improve to a top-10 team.

    Watch this space here as I’ll follow NIL developments at least once a month. We’ll follow NIL top-10 developments as the season unfolds.  For a more lighthearted look I took on the strangest NIL deals here you can read this one.  This year may be the baseline for all future NIL years. Notes: This top- 10 and top-25 rankings are current through the October 1 – October 8 AP rankings.

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    @AjayxeMem Sports fanatic from Memphis. Memphis Tigers Football, and also on American Athletic Conference beat. Insanely curious about NIL and its effect on amateur sports. Follow me on https://twitter.com/AjayxeMem to get notifications on new posts, or to comment.

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