There is a belief that NFL records are made to be broken, and for the most part, that statement is true; however, sometimes, when major rule changes are made, those records never actually do get broken. For example, when the NFL changed the clock rules to have a running clock after going out of bounds, games were suddenly shortened by a few minutes every game. Suddenly, passing yards per game or points scored per game. With less time on the clock, it is much more difficult to score points or pick up many yards.
To show an example of this, the overall passing yards per game record belongs to Peyton Manning who averaged 342 yards per game in 2013. The closest any player has come since then is Tom Brady in 2021 where he had 312 yards, 30 yards less per game.
It’s been a while since a huge update to the game has made it so that records will never get broken again, but the new kickoff rule may do just that. Here are a few records we will never see broken again.
1. Touchbacks
Record that will never be broken: 2017 Tampa Bay Buccanneers 89.40% touchback rate.
Touchbacks may not be the most entertaining statistic, but they are one that many kickers care about. Last year, the Dallas Cowboys had an 89% touchback percentage, which, when throwing in offside attempts, was well over 90%. With the new rule of having a touchback come back all the way to the 30 yard line, kickers will be much less inclined to want to boot it out the back of the endzone.
Unless a team is just really bad at kick coverage and consistently allows returners to get past the 30-yard line, the odds of the 2017 Bucs touchback rate being broken are almost zero.
2. Onside Kick Successes
Record that will never be broken: Couldn’t find an official season record, but the Falcons had three in a game.This record was never going to be broken anyway, with the successful onside kick rate now below 10%, and most of those successful recoveries coming off surprise kicks rather than the end-of-the-game desperation attempts.
After a lengthy search, I was unable to find an actual record for the most onside kick recoveries in a season (if you find it, drop it in the comments), but what is clear is that the majority of successful onside kicks occur in the middle of the game when the return team is not expecting an onside attempt.
With the new rules, surprise onside kicks are prohibited. Every attempt must be declared before the kick. Whatever that record is, it will never be beat, at least with how the rules are currently enforced.
3. Safties
Record that will never be broken: Most safeties in a season: 5, shared by four teams
Safties are becoming pretty rare in the NFL as they are, with more teams having a play or two that can at least safely get them out of the shadow of the endzone. However, with the new kickoff rules, the odds of breaking the record of safeties in a season can almost be guaranteed never to happen.
Normally, safeties are set up in one of three ways:
- The opposing team fumbles near the goalline, causing a turnover deep in the opponent’s territory.
- A punt is downed inside the five-yard line.
- A kickoff return has a penalty deep in their own end of the field, resulting in being backed up inside the five.
With the new rules on blocking and returning, it’s going to be nearly impossible to get a penalty inside the 20-yard line, meaning even a ‘half the distance to the goal’ penalty would likely keep the offense around the ten-yard line. The third point mentioned will seldom happen, resulting in fewer safeties.
Records That Logically Will Never Get Broken, But We’ll See
The kickoff model has been shown at the XFL level, but even there, it is a new concept and has never been run by NFL players. The following records probably will never get broken, however because this new rule has such a small sample size, technically, it’s too early to say they will never get broken.
- Kickoff Return Touchdowns: Cordarrelle Patterson – 9
The XFL has shown that while long returns are possible, with the setup of where players are, it’s very difficult to build up enough speed and get an angle to have a return that will lead to the endzone.
- Pass/Rush Yards Per Game
The NFL is already apparently exploring an 18th game, so saying yards in a season is very possible, but yards per game seems unlikely. Remember, the touchback used to be at the 20-yard line, with the clock stopping when going out of bounds. The starting field position will likely end up somewhere between the 30-35 yard line, meaning at least ten less yards per possession (following a TD), and still a running clock. It’s hard to see how a team will break a record when they are dealing with 30-50 fewer yards to the endzone per game.
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