As it stands, most NFL mock drafts have former Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. going behind fellow prospects like Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy.
The most recent CBS Sports mock draft has those three prospects going at No.2, No. 3 and No. 6, respectively. That same mock draft has Penix Jr. going No. 11 overall. Former player and current NFL analyst Maurice Jones-Drew also has those three quarterbacks going ahead of Penix Jr. in his mock draft.
NFL coaches are much higher on Michael Penix Jr.
Despite many analysts and pundits following this line of thinking, NFL insider Albert Breer says NFL coaches are much higher on Penix Jr. Breer says that some coaches have Penix Jr. going ahead of every quarterback other than the consensus No. 1 overall pick, Caleb Williams.
One interesting thing I’ve picked up on making calls this week: Coaches seem to be higher than scouts on Washington QB Michael Penix, in general. Some have him ahead of the presumed top guys (excluding Caleb Williams).
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) April 6, 2024
In an article from ESPN, Jordan Reid explained why NFL scouts have their doubts about Penix Jr.
“Outside of durability, scouts wanted to see how well Penix played when defenses knocked him off his initial launch point in the pocket. We saw those issues bubble up in the title game. He can easily scan the field and make throws from a clean pocket, but there are still questions about how he handles pressure. In 15 games, Penix was hit on 21.5 percent of his dropbacks (11th-least in the nation) and sacked 11 times. But when he gets outside the pocket, he completed 38.5 percent of his throws, 114th in the country.
“Penix had a prime opportunity to impress scouts at the Senior Bowl, but it ended up being a week of highs and lows—he didn’t do much to change prior opinions. Yes, the arm strength immediately stood out, but his accuracy was up and down. His pro day had an emphasis on throws on the move, as Penix continues to try to show more consistency there.”
If Penix Jr. gets drafted early, he will more than likely be going to a team with a below-average offensive line. This would exacerbate the issues that come with throwing under pressure and on the move.
Michael Penix Jr. has shown he has the arm to compete in the NFL
When Penix Jr. was on one of the biggest stages of his career, he showed that he had arm talent that was capable of competing in the NFL. He threw for 430 yards and two touchdowns in the College Football Playoff Semifinal Game against the Texas Longhorns.
Penix Jr. displayed tremendous accuracy in the face of adversity and made many NFL-level throws.
You CANT tell me Michael Penix Jr is NOT one of the Top 3 QB’s in this years class if you’ve actually broken down his film & watched him. If you say different, you don’t know ball.
He’s a magician out there. He put on a performance for the ages vs Texas in Sugar Bowl. pic.twitter.com/LhXI2TyYbM
— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) April 2, 2024
Michael Penix vs. Texas was a laser light show. Unloading javelin after javelin downfield, while showing off fantastic poise and pocket-manipulation. ELITE performance. pic.twitter.com/3wKuDymYmQ
— Frankie Abbott (@FrankiesFilm) January 4, 2024
While Penix Jr. struggled in the CFP championship, he did appear to be a little banged up while going against what was arguably the best defense in the nation in the Michigan Wolverines.
Penix Jr. was no stranger to being able to air the ball out in the last two years of his college career. He threw for 4,641 yards and 4,903 yards in 2022 and 2023, respectively. In each of those two years, he had over 30 touchdowns and never threw more than 11 interceptions.
Injuries could affect Michael Penix Jr.’s NFL draft spot
One of the main reasons some teams might be hesitant to take Penix Jr. with a high pick is injuries. Before transferring to Washington, Penix Jr. played for the Indiana Hoosiers for four years.
In each of those four seasons he spent with the Hoosiers, Penix Jr. suffered a season-ending injury. He had two torn ACLs and two shoulder injuries that kept him off the field before transferring to the Huskies.
In an article from ESPN, Penix Jr. explained how he felt about his injury history heading into the draft.
“If they are [worried about my injury history], I can’t control it at this point,” Penix said. “That was another reason I came back [to Washington] for the 2023 season, was to have another fully healthy season, just show I’m ready to compete and ready to do it at the next level. At this point, I can’t control the questions about the injuries.”
If a team does decide to go with Penix Jr., they would likely foster a more productive career if they were able to keep him off of his back. If that team has a below-average offensive line, that means they can accomplish this with an offense that gets the ball out of the quarterback’s hands quickly. One quarterback-needy team, the Denver Broncos, has a head coach who built an entire legendary quarterback career off of short, quick-hitting passes.
Before Drew Brees joined Sean Payton on the New Orleans Saints, he was seen as a huge risk due to his injury history. Payton ended up turning Brees into one of the most consistent, long-lasting quarterbacks in the league.
If that isn’t the case, then the team that picks him would likely need to have a contingency plan. Some mock drafts have the New York Giants taking Penix Jr, which would make sense because they have another quarterback, Daniel Jones, for whom the jury is still out. If Penix Jr. doesn’t pan out, there is another option for them that won’t leave them stranded.
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