The NFL opened the 5th-year option window on January 8th. They have until May 2nd to exercise or decline the options for the 1st round picks of the 2021 NFL Draft.
How are the 5th-year options calculated?
NFL players’ 5th-year options are evaluated based on four tiers. These tiers are determined by different factors, including making multiple Pro Bowls, making one Pro Bowl, or having significant playing time. If the player doesn’t meet any requirements, they are placed in a different tier.
The 33rd team outlined the tiers and projected their base salary for 2025.
1st Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: $25,664,000
Lawrence struggled in his rookie season, completing 359 out of 602 pass attempts (59.6%) for 3,641 yards and threw 12 touchdowns to 17 interceptions with a 3-14 record.
Lawrence earned his first Pro Bowl in his second season, completing 387 out of 584 pass attempts (66.3%) for 4,113 yards and threw 25 touchdowns to 8 interceptions with a 9-8 record. Jacksonville clinched the AFC South and made it to the Divisional Round.
Lawrence dealt with multiple injuries and took a step back in production in his third season, completing 370 out of 564 pass attempts (65.6%) for 4,016 yards and threw 21 touchdowns to 14 interceptions with an 8-8 record. Jacksonville did not make the playoffs.
PREDICTION: They exercise his 5th-year option because Lawrence is their franchise quarterback.
2nd Pick: New York Jets QB Zach Wilson: $22,408,000
Wilson appeared in 13 games during his rookie season, completing 213 out of 383 pass attempts (55.6%) for 2,334 yards and threw nine touchdowns to 11 interceptions with a 3-10 record. He suffered a PCL sprain in Week 7 and missed the next four games.
Wilson appeared in nine games during his second season. He missed the first three because he suffered a meniscus tear and a bone bruise in preseason. He returned in Week 4 and started the next seven games. He was benched in Weeks 11-13. He returned in Week 14 and played until Week 15 when he got benched during that game and was benched for the remainder of the season. He completed 133 out of 242 pass attempts (54.5%) for 1,688 yards and threw six touchdowns to seven interceptions with a 5-4 record.
Wilson started his third season as the backup to Aaron Rodgers. The Achilles injury to Rodgers allowed Wilson to start in Weeks 2-11. He was benched in Week 11 and sat out for the next two games. He returned in Week 14 and suffered a season-ending concussion in Week 15. He completed 221 out of 368 pass attempts (60.1%) for 2,271 yards and threw eight touchdowns to seven interceptions with a 4-7 record.
PREDICTION: They decline his 5th-year option because it didn’t work out, and the Jets are looking to trade him this offseason.
3rd Pick: San Francisco 49ers QB Trey Lance: $22,408,000
Lance appeared in six games and started two during his rookie season, completing 41 out of 71 pass attempts (57.7%) for 603 yards and threw five touchdowns to two interceptions with a 1-1 record.
Lance started the first two games of his second season, completing 15 out of 31 pass attempts (48.4%) for 194 yards and threw one interception with a 1-1 record. He suffered a season-ending fracture of his fibula and tore his deltoid and syndesmotic ligaments in Week 2.
San Francisco traded Lance to Dallas in his third season. He didn’t play in one snap because he was their emergency third-string QB.
PREDICTION: They decline his 5th-year option because Dallas plans on extending Dak Prescott, and $19 million is a lot of money for a backup QB.
4th Pick: Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts: $10,878,000
Pitts had an impressive rookie season, earning his first Pro Bowl selection with 68 receptions for 1,026 yards and a touchdown.
Pitts took a step back in production because of inferior quarterback play and an injury. He had 28 receptions for 356 yards and two touchdowns. He suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 11.
Pitts had a solid third season with 53 receptions for 667 yards and three touchdowns.
PREDICTION: They exercise his 5th-year option because he is an important piece to their offense.
5th Pick: Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase: $21,816,000
Chase had a phenomenal rookie season, earning his first Pro Bowl selection with 81 receptions for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Chase earned his second Pro Bowl in his second season with 87 receptions for 1,046 yards and nine touchdowns. He suffered a hairline hip fracture in Week 6. He managed to play in Week 7 but was out for the next five games.
Chase earned his third Pro Bowl with 100 receptions for 1,216 yards and seven touchdowns in his third season. He missed Week 16 because of a shoulder injury.
PREDICTION: They exercise his 5th-year option because he is not only one of their best offensive players, he’s one of the best wide receivers in the league.
6th Pick: Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle: $15,591,000
Waddle had 104 receptions for 1,015 yards and six touchdowns in his rookie season.
Waddle had 75 receptions for 1,356 yards and eight touchdowns in his second season.
Waddle had 72 receptions for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns. He missed Week 3 with a concussion and Weeks 17 and 18 with a high ankle sprain.
PREDICTION: They exercise his 5th-year option because Miami’s offense plays much better when he’s healthy and in the lineup.
7th Pick: Detroit Lions RT Penei Sewell: $19,040,000
Sewell played eight games at LT and eight at RT in his rookie season. He had 11 penalties, allowed five sacks, and had a 77 PFF Grade.
Sewell played every game at RT in his second season, earning his first Pro Bowl. He had ten penalties, allowed two sacks, and had an 80.6 PFF Grade.
Sewell played two games at LT and 15 at RT in his third season, earning his second Pro Bowl and his first All-Pro. He had seven penalties, allowed one sack, and had a 90.7 PFF Grade.
PREDICTION: They exercise his 5th-year option because he has developed into one of the best right tackles in the league.
8th Pick: Carolina Panthers CB Jaycee Horn: $12,472,000
Horn played three games in his rookie season. He recorded five tackles, one interception, and one pass deflection. He allowed two receptions on seven targets for 18 yards, one touchdown, and a passer rating of 39.6. He suffered a season-ending fractured foot in Week 3.
Horn played 13 games in his second season. He recorded 53 tackles, three interceptions, and seven pass deflections. He allowed 33 receptions on 60 targets for 429 yards, one touchdown, and a passer rating of 62.4. He suffered a chest injury in Week 5 and missed the next two games. He also suffered a season-ending broken wrist in Week 16.
Horn played six games in his third season. He suffered a hamstring injury in Week 1 and missed the next 11 games. He recorded 27 tackles and five pass deflections. He allowed 18 receptions on 31 targets for 170 yards, one touchdown, and a passer rating of 84.1.
PREDICTION: They exercise his 5th-year option because, despite the injuries, he is a talented cornerback, and his option is affordable.
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